Yedi mind trick played on 50 traders - Mike Baghdady

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Another topic now: See this video by Mike Baghdady
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YCpY054yoc&feature=player_embedded#!

He will take 50 traders and "train" them. Here is the problem: out of
a large enough random sample of traders using any number of methods
such as foo-foo MACD, channel, or the phases of the moon at least one
or few of them will have a good equity return. Out of 50 traders there
has to be least one trader after a period that will make money, purely
as a matter of statistics. In the casino having 50 gamblers pull the
lever the chances of having three monkeys with a coo-coo-clock
expression on their faces lining up is highly likely on one machine.

Now if Baghdady's methods actually work, then all 50 traders should be
profitable, but because his methods are an exercise in post-Factum
rationalization this won't be the case.

In short Baghdady is exploiting a statistical anomaly and will sadly
convince that one trader out of 50 that he can actually trade which
won't be the case. The whole atmosphere and excitement will be a Yedi
mind trick played on the hapless winner, who will crash and burn after
the competition is over.

For Baghdady it generates exposure , he covers the expense of the
exercise by selling courses for $4000 to other would be traders.
Having CNN interviewing Baghdady should be juxtaposed against the
backdrop that none of the news outlets warned us against Moody's scam
of rating subprime black holes at AAA.

To falsify my assertion such trader must provide an averaged out total
of his Adverse Excursion ratio scaled relative to position size as per
Portfolio theory.

There are lots of biases, our tendency to deceive ourselves must be
taken into consideration. In the academic literature the most
important are:
1) Forward looking bias
2) Data-snooping bias
3) Survivalist bias (very important)

Survivalist bias is the tendency to assign some sort of significance
to the winner of a trading contest. Especially the EA contests held by
metatrader few yeas ago suffered from this. Over any two month period
a particular EA will come out the winner, but let the EA's run for a
few more moths , then the EA who came in last could now be first! Thus
the strong inference that the market is utterly random.

Hence Portfolio theory was developed to try and determine if trades
were random or not. The Adverse Excursion ratio I consider the most
important.

My suggestion is to visit a good professor in Statistics to get some
insightful ideas on Investment scams.

See http://www.trade2win.com/boards/search.php?searchid=8277898 by
Mike Baghdady .

http://www.tutanag.co.za/index.php/trading-school links to Baghdady. I
have no comment on their courses nor investment ideas because there
isn't enough information.

"....The Online Trade Planning Session with Mike Baghdady Mike is a
professional trader with over 33 years experience and is the and is
the Current Live World Trading Champion! ....."
Lets see now he keeps on changing the details
Here are the versions from few days ago from his site and previous
emails:

1) World trading championship.
2) World of trading , world champion 2009
3) Live Trading World Championship Frankfurt 2009

Why did they say world champ 2009 a few days ago and not mention that
he is the present champ ? Or was this mystery contest held in
"Frankfurt" of all places just recently completed. The only contest
worth registering for would be a NFA regulated contest such as the
http://www.worldcupadvisor.com/worldcupchampionships/default_nwcc2.aspx
held in the USA. If the "world of trading" world contest was held in
Germany , did they trade Dax futures.

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On Feb 18, 8:38 am, backspace <stephan...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Another topic now: See this video by Mike Baghdadyhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YCpY054yoc&feature=player_embedded#!

> Seehttp://www.trade2win.com/boards/search.php?searchid=8277898 by
> Mike Baghdady .
>
> http://www.tutanag.co.za/index.php/trading-schoollinks to Baghdady. I

> have no comment on their courses nor investment ideas  because there
> isn't enough information.
>
> "....The Online Trade Planning Session with Mike Baghdady Mike is a
> professional trader with over 33 years experience and is the and is
> the Current Live World Trading Champion! ....."
> Lets see now he keeps on changing the details
> Here are the versions from few days ago from his site and previous
> emails:
>
> 1) World trading championship.
> 2) World of trading , world champion 2009
> 3) Live Trading World Championship Frankfurt 2009
>
> Why did they say world champ 2009 a few days ago and not mention that
> he is the present champ ? Or was this mystery contest held in
> "Frankfurt" of all places just recently completed. The only contest

> worth registering for would be a NFA regulated contest such as thehttp://www.worldcupadvisor.com/worldcupchampionships/default_nwcc2.aspx

> held in the USA. If the "world of trading" world contest was held in
> Germany , did they trade Dax futures.

It should be 15 traders not 50, misread the title from youtube.

He is putting up $1.5mil and this will generate enough hype for him to
rope in naive investors to pay him $4000. As he said in the video ....
I am doing business .... Lets see now, 1.5mil/4000 = 375 new
investors , if the entire $1.5mil gets blown by his students. He is
calculating that all the hype this generates would lead to more than
375 new students, that wouldn't have been there.

The fact remains that like Larry Williams (I really trade) he can't
provide his actual futures accounts. Yes, I said accounts, we need all
the accounts and then their weighted average to determine if a net
profit was made.

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> >http://www.tutanag.co.za/index.php/trading-schoollinksto Baghdady. I

See http://groups.google.com/group/futures-trading/browse_frm/thread/2ecad27b1e1aa13b?tvc=1

Falsifiability criteria for evaluating trading proficiency .

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> Seehttp://www.trade2win.com/boards/search.php?searchid=8277898 by
> Mike Baghdady .

> "....The Online Trade Planning Session with Mike Baghdady Mike is a
> professional trader with over 33 years experience and is the and is
> the Current Live World Trading Champion! ....."
> Lets see now he keeps on changing the details
> Here are the versions from few days ago from his site and previous
> emails:
>
> 1) World trading championship.
> 2) World of trading , world champion 2009
> 3) Live Trading World Championship Frankfurt 2009
>
> Why did they say world champ 2009 a few days ago and not mention that
> he is the present champ ? Or was this mystery contest held in
> "Frankfurt" of all places just recently completed. The only contest

> worth registering for would be a NFA regulated contest such as thehttp://www.worldcupadvisor.com/worldcupchampionships/default_nwcc2.aspx

> held in the USA. If the "world of trading" world contest was held in
> Germany , did they trade Dax futures.

http://www.trainingtraders.com/trade-software/short-term-software is
the new website of Baghdady his old site making claims of "winning" a
Frankfurt trading contest is http://www.spyglasstrading.co.uk/

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> > Why did they say world champ 2009 a few days ago and not mention that
> > he is the present champ ? Or was this mystery contest held in
> > "Frankfurt" of all places just recently completed. The only contest
> > worth registering for would be a NFA regulated contest such as thehttp://www.worldcupadvisor.com/worldcupchampionships/default_nwcc2.aspx
> > held in the USA. If the "world of trading" world contest was held in
> > Germany , did they trade Dax futures.
>
> http://www.trainingtraders.com/trade-software/short-term-softwareis
> the new website of Baghdady his old site making claims of "winning" a
> Frankfurt trading contest is  http://www.spyglasstrading.co.uk/

http://web.archive.org/web/20100419161029/http://www.spyglasstrading.co.uk/

[backspace]

> http://web.archive.org/web/20100419161029/http://www.spyglasstrading....

See

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/101668-lord-flashearts-rogue-traders-watchdog-thread-11.html