Fwd: Nov Ice Air
Molly Molloy
From: tom cartwright <thcart...@gmail.com>
Date: Sun, Dec 5, 2021 at 12:03 PM
Subject: Nov Ice Airhttps://witnessattheborder.org/posts/12521
ICE AIR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – NOVEMBER 2021
OVER 10,000 ICE AIR FLIGHT LEGS HAVE BEEN DOCUMENTED IN LESS THAN 2 YEARS, SINCE JANUARY 2020.
OVER 5,000 UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.
ALMOST 2,300 HAVE BEEN REMOVAL FLIGHTS, WHEN LATERAL FLIGHTS ARE INCLUDED. HALF OF THESE UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.
I would have never imagined that this volunteer effort would have chronicled over 10,000 ICE Air flights in only 23 months, especially over 5,000 posted under the Biden Administration.
To be sure, these are massive numbers posted by the approximate 100 planes monitored daily, from which each flight is viewed, decisioned as an ICE Air flight or not, and then documented.
That said, this is not at all what I am reflecting on as I write this preamble. Instead, I am experiencing an agonizing and heart wrenching flash back to my personal witness of these flights. My eyes see, and my heart feels:
100’s of millions of dollars squandered on shunning rather than welcoming with dignity.
800,000 seats filled with our brothers and sisters, who are
restrained in 5-point shackles, grappling to ignore the physical pain, but unable to disappear the degrading feeling of being chained as one would an animal, something less than human, only for the crime of hope.
searched head to toe, bound hands to feet in shackles. Before boarding, mouth opened for examination, hair mussed to ensure Mom has no weapon there, stripping just a little more pride from her soul.
I see children gazing at the faces of their parents, some so small as to be carried in their arms, trying to understand their agonized visage as they board the plane. The innocent eyes of the children, brimming with love and trust, meeting the eyes of their parents deep in shame and humiliation.
I hear the counting out loud of my octogenarian friend, Fran, of each person as they struggle, legs shackled, up the ladder to board the plane. Counting to connect on a human level to the spirit of each person. To commemorate the dignity and dashed hopes of each individual. At first, a voice through sobs, but with each number vocalized and each person’s hope remembered, a swelling crescendo filled with pain and defiance in equal measure.
I smell and taste the acrid jet fumes hanging dense in the air as the plane taxis away from where we are hidden to witness what we are not supposed to see. Then I feel some relief that it is over. Then I feel shame at that relief.
Tom Cartwright
November ICE Air flights totaled 634, down 49 (7%) from October.
Removal flights in November of 137 were just below the 139 of October and rank as the 3rd highest month of 23 recorded. Over the last 3 months removal flights have totaled 468, exceeding the prior rolling 3-month high period (Aug-Oct 2021 of 430), and far eclipsing the highest 3-month period of 2020 of 315.
Adding the reduced lateral flights of 23 in November, all to El Paso, (discussed below) yields 160 effective removal flights, 22 (12%) below October.
Although removal flights were similar in November and October, the composition of several destinations had significant variability (pages 18,19). Flights to Haiti were 12 lower than in October, and flights to Tapachula were 10 lower than October. Offsetting these reductions were increases in flights to the interior of Mexico of 7 (excluding Villahermosa and Tapachula), to Guatemala of 6, and El Salvador of 3.
Four recently implemented removal initiatives by air, the Haiti expulsion program, direct T42 expulsion flights to Guatemala (and now just starting to Honduras as covered later), expulsion flights to southern Mexico, and expedited removals, when added to the lateral flights, are all important contributors to the evolving removal story that should be read in context of SW border encounters (pages 10-12).
Encounters fell again in October (27.7k; 14%) as they did in September (17.8k; 9%), for a two month drop of 45.5k, or 22%. Of this 2-month drop, 90% is accounted for by reductions in encounters of people from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, three significant nationalities “amenable” to expulsion to Mexico, and in the case of Guatemalans, direct to Guatemala, under T42. Encounters of Haitians, also subject to return by air, fell 6.7k to just 902 in October.
Over the past 2 months, Ecuador was down from 17.6k to .7k, reflecting the visa restriction instituted by Mexico. It will be interesting to see the impact the new visa restrictions on Brazil. Conversely, over the past 2 months, encounters of Mexicans were up 9.3k to 65.7k, and encounters of Venezuelans up 7.1k to 13.4k.
73% of the removal flights in November are attributed to flights to Guatemala (43), Honduras and El Salvador (14 each) and the T42 flights to Villahermosa (20) and Haiti (9).
Haiti received 9 expulsion flights in November, far below the 21 in October and the 58 in September (57 after 19 September). 3 of the flights departed from Alexandria, LA with adults, and 6 from Laredo, TX with many families. Since 19 September there have been 87 return flights expelling just over 9,200 Haitians, almost half of which were women and children, to a country both the US and Canada advised citizens to leave because of life safety concerns (page 14).
Disappointingly, since President Biden’s inauguration through November there have been 123 likely ICE Air return flights to Haiti, sending over an estimated 12,000 people back to Haiti. 24 of these flights were in February and March 2021, just after encounters of Haitians began to edge up as a way to deter continued increases.
65 of the 87 flights between 19 September- 30 November landed in Port-au-Prince and 22 in Cap-Haitian. 35 departed from Harlingen, TX and 40 from Laredo, TX, from where almost all recent flights have departed as the point of processing for Haitians. 6 departed from Alexandria, LA, primarily all adults.
NEW – T42 direct expulsion flights to Honduras just began, and although I don’t have the exact start date it seems likely to be around the end of November or the beginning of December. My understanding is that there may be up to 6 per week from the RGV based on encounters. On both Wednesday and Friday, 1 and 3 of December, there were 2 flights each day from Harlingen to Honduras. If encounters do not accelerate, I think it reasonable to expect that the T42 flights to expel Hondurans to Villahermosa will be reduced or paused, as were the flights to Tapachula to expel Guatemalans after the direct T42 flights to Guatemala ramped up.
T42 direct expulsion flights to Guatemala began on 2 September. November was the highest month at 43, following October at 37 and September at 34, for a 3-month total of 114 (page 18). We do not know how many people on these flights were under Title 42 but it would be a substantial number given the increase from August (10) and the prior 6 months when there were only 3-5 per month.
The 43 flights in November ranked as the second highest month out of 23 months (45 in February 2020), and the last 3-month total of 114 ranked as the 2nd highest 3-month period since 1Q 2020.
Moreover, based on data from the Government of Guatemala, returns from the US by air in November were 4,784 compared to 3,540 in October, 3,354 in September and only 587 in August prior to the T42 flights. Over the past 3 months 11,678 Guatemalans were returned by air from the US. That said, November’s air expulsions represent only 36% of the expulsions of Guatemalans (assuming November encounters are similar to October).
The increase in flights to Guatemala most likely contributed to fewer flights to Tapachula, MX, (discussed below) which were paused following the last flight 5 Nov, with only 5 in total in November.
T42 Expulsion flights to Southern Mexico of Guatemalans, Hondurans, Salvadorans, and a small number of Nicaraguans to the cities of Villahermosa and Tapachula, began on 5 August. In August there were 36 flights, in September 42, in October 35, and in November 25 for a 4-month total of 138, most likely expelling around 14,000 Guatemalans and Hondurans into Southern Mexico.
Significantly, flights to Tapachula were paused following the 5 November flight after 5 flights in November. Our understanding is that flights to Tapachula resulted in chain expulsions of Guatemalans to Tecún Úman, the same location Mexican returns of Guatemalans are received. This suspension of flights to Tapachula is most likely related to the reduction in encounters of Guatemalans (pages 13,18) and to the increase in direct T42 flights to Guatemala mentioned above.
Flights to Villahermosa to expel Hondurans continued almost every day with 20 flights in November, following 20 in October, 22 in September and 20 in August. The whole process is extremely opaque on behalf of ICE in terms of reporting the full chain of these expulsions from Mexico to home country, but it does not appear that at any step along the way there is an opportunity to access protections under international law. As mentioned above, we are watching for reductions in flights to Villahermosa following the new T42 flights to Honduras.
Based on the number of planes, and an estimated 100 people per plane (max is around 130), since these flights started in August there would have been 8,200 Hondurans to Villahermosa and 5,600 Guatemalans to Tapachula, for a total of around 14,000 people.
Flights to the interior of Mexico, excluding Tapachula and Villahermosa, fell significantly in September when the flights to Haiti escalated. In November flights increased to a total of 15 to Morelia (4), Mexico City (4), and Guadalajara (7), from 8 in both October and September, and approached the 17 in August. Between October and January there were 37-40 flights per month to the interior of Mexico.
Lateral flights of 23 in November were just over half of October (43) and the lowest month since June, most likely reflecting the reduction in encounters and the increase in direct T42 flights to Guatemala that started in September (page 9). In the RGV, encounters almost halved from 81.1k in August to 45.3k in October. We expect November to be similar. In August there were 74 lateral flights from the RGV and in November just 11 from the RGV. There were 12 lateral flights from Yuma in November compared to 22 from Yuma in October, so we will be interested in November encounters in the Yuma sector. We believe encounters in the RGV will be similar in November to October.
The only destination for lateral flights in November was El Paso, there were no lateral flights to San Diego or Tucson in November.
Since lateral flights started in March there have been 336 lateral flights through November, resulting in up to 33,000 family members transported primarily from the RGV and Yuma where they were encountered and then flown to another city with most expelled into Mexico based on Mexico defining daily how many people can be expelled.
Shuffle flights, those domestic flight legs not connected to an international return flight, decreased in November from 364 in October to 321 (12%), reflecting primarily the lower number of lateral flights and returns (page 17).
Mexico Operated Removal Flights to Northern Triangle countries were the same in November (14) as October, and slightly lower than September (16), with 2 to Guatemala compared to 4 in October, and 10 to Honduras compared to 7 in October (page 13). We observed 2 flights to El Salvador compared to 3 in October. It appears these Mexican deportation flights began very modestly in April and more regularly in May. Since May we have observed 67 flights from Mexico to Honduras, 34 to Guatemala and 8 to El Salvador. Since September 30 we have observed 5 removal flights from Mexico to Haiti, only 1 in November.
Internal Mexico flights to Tapachula were lower in November at 12 compared to 20 in October, 29 in September, and 31 in August
We must note that tracking Magnicharter flights (Mexico’s ICE Air) is tricky because they do not file flight plans visible to US applications (internal Mexico flights are often not in range of ground transponders). The international flights are somewhat easier, some with filed flight plans, and based on observations, we capture Tapachula flights quite accurately. However, there is no visibility of internal Mexico Villahermosa flights and we know they operate. CHIRLA reports that individuals and families expelled from Magnicharter flights to Tapachula are treated identically to people expelled on Title 42 flights from Texas, with most people reporting no opportunity to apply for refugee status in Mexico before being forced to walk across the bridge in Técun Úman.
Mexico Expulsions by land of Guatemalans and Hondurans. It is difficult to divine how many of these people are direct expulsions from Mexico and how many may be chain expulsions from the US with a subsequent expulsion from Mexico following an ICE Air T42 flight to Villahermosa and Tapachula.
Based on reporting from the Government of Guatemala, in November there were 4,323 Guatemalans returned by Mexico on 130 buses to Tecún Únam, Guatemala, down from 5,555 in October.
In November, 5,500 Hondurans were expelled to El Ceibo, Guatemala by Mexico on 155 buses (last 2 days estimated), down from 6,544 in October. Additionally, 1,025 Hondurans were expelled by Mexico to El Carmen, Guatemala on 30 buses, down from 1,560 in October.
There were no Salvadorans or Nicaraguans expelled to El Ceibo in November, however there were 736 and 1,306 Salvadorans expelled in October and September, respectively, and 152 Nicaraguans expelled in August.
In total, 10,848 people were expelled by Mexico to Guatemala in November (6,525 Hondurans and 4,323 Guatemalans), down 3,547 (25%) from October at 14,395.