Mexico's Murder Rate Inches Down, while Massacres Grab Headlines

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Gordon Housworth

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May 22, 2012, 9:49:57 AM5/22/12
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While analysis of Mexican crime statistics is always fraught with peril, Alejandro Hope does as good a job as any.
 
I have been interested in any politically driven (external) or prudently driven (internal) effort to damp down violence in the run-up to national elections.
 
Is ‘not worse’ a sign of this effort? If so, who is driving the bus?
 
My impression is that the state is both powerless and comissive in the level of violence, and it is only criminal restraint that is meaningful:
 
Mexico's Murder Rate Inches Down, while Massacres Grab Headlines
Written by  Alejandro Hope
InSight Crime
Monday, 21 May 2012 10:02
 
Original Spanish:
 
Violencia 2012: el reporte de abril
Alejandro Hope
Plata o Plomo
16 mayo, 2012
 
Summary paragraph from English translation and Spanish original:
 
In summary, I don't like April's numbers. There wasn't a significant rebound in violence, but the signs of a decline in killings weakened. Violence seems to have stabilized compared to the (very high) levels of 2010. It's likely that in comparison to 2011, things will continue looking good for a few more months and the year will end with a drop of 6 to 10 percent in the number of homicides. But this is not a good result: at this rate, we will not return to the 2007 homicide rate before 2018. Whatever the cause of the reduction of violence in previous months, it's clear that it isn't strong enough to produce a dramatic change in the country's security conditions. As the recent massacres have demonstrated, there are still powerful incentives in Mexico to resort to criminal violence. While this remains, the best we can hope for at a national scale is a gradual and barely perceptible improvement.
 
En resumen, no me gustan los números de abril. No hubo un repunte significativo, pero se debilitaron las señales de descenso. La violencia parece haberse enquistado en torno a los (elevadísimos) niveles de 2010. Es probable que la comparación con 2011 siga siendo favorable por algunos meses más y cerremos el año con una caída de 6-10% en el número de homicidios. Pero ese no es un buen resultado: al ritmo actual, no regresaríamos a la tasa de homicidio de 2007 antes de 2018. Cualquiera que haya sido la causa de la disminución de la violencia en meses previos, es claro que no es suficientemente potente para producir un cambio dramático en las condiciones de seguridad del país. Como han mostrado de manera patente las masacres recientes, existen aún en México incentivos poderosos para recurrir a la violencia criminal. Mientras no cambien, a lo más que podemos aspirar a escala nacional es a una gradualísima y casi imperceptible mejoría
 
 

Crystal Massey

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May 23, 2012, 12:16:34 PM5/23/12
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Again an article that ignores the huge increases in disappearances, a problem that is not even considered a crime in many states in Mexico, even though once a person is disappeared, especially when they have been dragged off by armed gunmen, that person is presumed dead - these numbers conveniently do not count in the homicide rate for Mexico. It is apparently a problem that is invisible to most of the press (or one that they are simply too scared to report- a wise fear given the fact that at least 6 journalists have been killed in less than a month -http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/mexico-freedom-expression-still-under-attack-six-journalists-killed-2012-05-21). Lower homicide rates look nice going into an election. 


http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/847754.html    This article focuses on the 900% increase in disappearances in the state of Chihuahua since 2006. 

Oaxaca, en 17 meses:
"31 activistas y luchadores sociales han sido asesinados.
95 asesinatos por motivos políticos, agrarios o sociales
376 homicidios dolosos cometidos en 2011
81 se derivan de pugnas agrarias, conflictos poselectorales, diferencias entre comunidades y ajustes
73 casos que podrían tipificarse como feminicidios
119 más podrían ser ejecuciones del crimen organizado"


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