Fwd: ICE Air report - Oct
Molly Molloy
Date: Mon, Nov 8, 2021 at 10:21 AM
Subject: ICE Air report - Oct
ICE AIR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – OCTOBER 2021
Total ICE Air flights recorded of 683 ranked October as the 3rd highest month of the last 22. Although down from the mind numbing 766 in September, it was just below the second highest month of 695 in August.
The 2,144 flights recorded over the last 3 months is 1.5x higher than any prior 3-month period since we started recording in January 2020.
Since the inauguration of President Biden there have been 4,547 likely ICE Air flights, almost 33% above the pre-inauguration pace in November/December 2020. Of these, 739 were removal flights and if lateral flights (effectively removal flights) are added it jumps to 1,052 (page 19). To be fully transparent, encounters in November/December 2020 averaged 73,000 compared to 192,000 in September 2021 (pages 8,9,10).
Removal flights in October of 139 ranked as the second highest month of 22, second only to the record bursting 192 last month. HOWEVER, if we add the 43 lateral flights in October to El Paso, San Diego and Tucson that are effectively removal flights, effective removal flights would be 182. Although below the stunning 231 of last month, it is still 50 flights over the prior 22-month high.
The change from last month can be attributed primarily to lower removal flights to Haiti (-37: from 58 to 21) southern Mexico (-7: from 42 to 35), and Honduras (-8: from 20 to 12).
Four recently implemented removal initiatives by air, the Haiti expulsion program, direct expulsion flights to Guatemala, expulsion flights to southern Mexico, and expedited removals, when added to the lateral flights, have maintained elevated removal flights.
Almost 70% of the removal flights in October are attributed to flights to Guatemala (37) and the T42 flights to Haiti (21), Villahermosa (20), and Tapachula (35). Adding Honduras (12) and El Salvador (11) we capture almost 85% of removal flights.
Haiti received 21 expulsion flights in October, half of which were before 7 October (page 12), down from the 58 in September (57 after 19 September). From 19 September through 7 November, there were 80 expulsion flights to Haiti, expelling an estimated 8,500 people, almost half of which were women and children (page 12).
Disappointingly, since President Biden’s inauguration through 7 November there have been 116 likely ICE Air return flights to Haiti, sending an estimated 11,000 people back to Haiti. 24 of these flights were in February and March 2021, just after encounters of Haitians began to edge up as a way to deter continued increases. As always, deterrence does not work past short-term, and in May encounters escalated.
Multiple International humanitarian organizations have denounced these expulsions to Haiti because of the desperate and dangerous conditions there.( https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/press/2021/9/6155964b4/un-agencies-call-protection-measures-comprehensive-regional-approach-haitians.html.),and because of the potential violation of international law resulting from returning people without the possibility to request protection. (https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=27694&LangID=E.)
58 of the 80 flights between 19 September- 7 November landed in Port-Au-Prince and 22 in Cap-Haitian. 35 departed from Harlingen, TX and 35 from Laredo, TX, from where almost all recent flights have departed as the point of processing for Haitians.
ICE Air T42 direct expulsion flights to Guatemala began on 2 September. In October there were 37 flights to Guatemala, up 3 from September. We do not know how many people on these flights were under Title 42 but it would be a substantial number given the increase from August (10) and the prior 6 months when there were only 3-5 per month.
Moreover, based on data from the Government of Guatemala, returns from the US by air in September will be about 3,500 compared to 3,354, 587, and 374 in September, August and July, respectively. That said, these air expulsions represent only about 22% of the expulsions of Guatemalans (assuming October encounters are similar to September). Some of this increase may also be related to the re-initiation of expedited removal on 30 July. It is our understanding that Guatemala is the only country (other than Haiti) now receiving direct T42 flights. Flights to Honduras were down to 12 in October from 20 in September, and El Salvador was unchanged at 11. Ecuador was down to 7 from 11 in September.
T42 Expulsion flights to Southern Mexico of Guatemalans, Hondurans, Salvadorans, and maybe Nicaraguans to the cities of Villahermosa and Tapachula, began on 5 August and have continued with flights to each city almost every weekday all month and through October. In August there were 36 flights, in September 42, and in October 35 for a 3-month total of 113. In October, as in September, all flights departed from McAllen and there were 20 to Villahermosa and 15 to Tapachula.
Once the people expelled reach these cities, Mexico subsequently expels them by foot into desperate and dangerous situations in Guatemala, especially El Ceibo, Guatemala, with modest temporary services now provided by Guatemala, which stated it would support returns to El Ceibo until the end of September. Subsequently, those returned would most likely be taken by bus to a reception center similar to where Guatemala seems to be receiving expelled migrants from Tapachula by INAMI bus at the reception center at Tecun Uman, about 40km from Tapachula. Or, in the case of Hondurans, possibly directly to the border of Guatemala and Honduras for expulsion into Honduras. In all cases, it appears that no form of removal protection is made available.
Flights to the interior of Mexico, excluding Tapachula and Villahermosa, fell significantly in September when the flights to Haiti escalated. In October, as in September, there were only 8 total flights to Mexico City, Guadalajara and Morelia compared to 17 in August. Between October and January there were 37-40 flights per month to the interior of Mexico.
Lateral flights of 43 were up just 4 in October, but the composition of origination locations changed significantly. In September, 31 flights originated in the RGV, 7 in Del Rio and 1 in Yuma. In October, only 21 originated in the RGV while 22 originated in Yuma. (page 7). This change reflects the shift in encounters from the RGV to other sectors, including Yuma. Lateral flights are used to control crowding in CBP processing facilities. We do not know October encounters yet, but in September RGV encounters fell from 81,200 to 55,100 (32%). Yuma increased from 17,200 to 22,400 (30%). Del Rio increased from 33,100 to 43,600 (32%), all the result of an increase in encounters of Haitians from 7,600 to 17,600.
Destination cities remained the same with El Paso (27 from 19) taking a larger relative share than San Diego (7 from 19). Tucson increased slightly (9 from 6).
Since lateral flights started in March there have been 313 lateral flights through October resulting in up to 31,000 family members transported primarily from the RGV and now Yuma where they were encountered and then flown to another city with most expelled into Mexico based on Mexico defining daily how many people can be expelled (page 7).
Shuffle flights, those domestic flight legs not connected to an international return flight, increased slightly in October from 352 in September to 364 (.3%), following a record 458 in August when there were a record 74 lateral flights.
Mexico Operated Removal Flights to Northern Triangle countries were slightly lower in October (14) than September (16) with 4 to Guatemala compared to 6 in September, and 7 to Honduras compared to 10 in September. However, we observed 3 flights to El Salvador compared to 0 in June - September. It appears these deportation flights began very modestly in April and more regularly in May. Since May we have observed 57 flights from Mexico to Honduras, 32 to Guatemala and 6 to El Salvador. Since September 30 we have observed 4 removal flights from Mexico to Haiti, 2 originating from Villahermosa and 2 originating from Tapachula. (page 11).
Internal Mexico flights to Tapachula were also lower in October with 20 compared to 29 in September and 31 in August. (page 11).
We must note that tracking Magnicharter flights (Mexico’s ICE Air) is tricky because they do not file flight plans visible to US applications and often seem to fly without transponders operating. The international flights are somewhat easier and, based on observations on the ground, we capture Tapachula flights quite accurately. However, there is no visibility of internal Mexico Villahermosa flights and we know they operate.