Decades
ago, the vast majority of migrants attempting to cross the border
between ports of entry were Mexican. A few years ago, most came from the
Central American countries known as the Northern Triangle: Guatemala,
Honduras and El Salvador. But now, according to Border Patrol
statistics, the number of people coming from outside those places is
growing -- and fast.
To
better understand this trend, CNN dove into the data. Here's a look at
what we're seeing, why this change is so significant, why it's
happening, what this looks like on the ground and what could happen
next.
Back
in 2007, the number of migrants in this "other" category was
negligible. But since then, it's grown dramatically -- 11,000% — with
the sharpest increase in just the past two years.
US
Border Patrol encounters still show more migrants from Mexico
attempting to cross the Southwest border in July than from any other
individual country. But so far this fiscal year, for the first time,
encounters with migrants from outside Mexico and the Northern Triangle
are outpacing encounters with migrants from either of those regions.
A
handful of countries make up a large portion of this growing group at
the border. The number of times US Border Patrol officials at the
Southwest border encountered migrants from Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua and
Venezuela has increased dramatically over the past two years.
One word of caution about the numbers:
For this analysis, we used US Customs and Border Protection statistics
on Border Patrol encounters -- which include both migrants who are
apprehended and detained, at least temporarily, at the border, and
migrants who are immediately expelled to their home countries and
Mexico. This data gives us the best overall picture of who is arriving
and what's happening at the border.
But officials have acknowledged the numbers can be inflated, because they include some migrants who were turned back under
the "Title 42" public health policy, then tried to cross again. In other words, the same people can be counted multiple times.
This
is an issue that mostly affects migrants from Mexico and the Northern
Triangle, who are more likely to be subjected to Title 42 restrictions
than migrants from other countries.
Why this is significant:
Doris Meissner, who directs US immigration policy work at the
nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute in Washington, says the rise in
additional nationalities at the border "makes border enforcement all the
more complicated."
For
decades, many border policies have been designed with Mexican migrants
in mind, she says, but it's much more difficult to deport people to
other countries.
There are limits
to which nationalities can be turned back under Title 42, for example.
And frosty diplomatic relations can affect deportations, too.
"These
populations ... require different kinds of responses," Meissner says.
"We have not established an asylum system that is in any way up to the
level of the challenge that this change brought about."
But Bier says officials aren't doing enough.
"The
Biden administration can't respond to this new reality with the same
old playbook," he said on Twitter. He told CNN that's exactly what the
administration seems to be doing. "It's a lot of the same types of
responses," he says.
Why it's happening: There's no simple reason why this is occurring, Bier says.
"There are as many answers," he says, "as there are countries represented in that group."
CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus
recently told CBS News
it's impossible to pinpoint all the factors driving migrants to make
the journey, given how complicated situations are in their home
countries. "It's a very complex set of dynamics," he said.
Meissner,
who served as commissioner of the Immigration and Naturalization
Service from 1993-2000, says the pandemic has played a major role by
intensifying economic pressures.
Deteriorating
economic conditions, food shortages and limited access to health care
are increasingly pushing Venezuelans to leave, and a growing Venezuelan
community in the United States is also a draw, Meissner says.
For
Colombians and Nicaraguans, economic instability -- compounded by the
pandemic — has been the main driver of migration, she says, but politics
are also playing a role.
"
Rising repression under the Ortega regime,
especially during the recent presidential election, has cemented the
belief among many Nicaraguans that the country's political turmoil will
not be resolved in the short term," Meissner says.
And
those who previously saw neighboring Costa Rica as a destination, she
says, are more likely to look elsewhere due to decreasing job prospects
there.
Rising
inflation and unemployment in Colombia are fueling more migration,
Meissner says. Social unrest after a wave of protests in 2021 and
political divisions that intensified during the recent presidential
election are also likely influencing migrants' decisions, she says.
What this looks like on the ground:
This isn't just something we can see with statistics. Both migrants and
Border Patrol officials say they're noticing the shift.
More Cubans than ever are leaving the island. See where they're going