FW: [WTNN] World Tibet Network News - December 10, 2010
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Alex Bunjes
Dec 10, 2010, 9:14:42 AM12/10/10
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Friday, December 10, 2010
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Issue ID: 2010/12/10
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Contents
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1. The Statement of the Kashag on the
Twenty-first Anniversary of the Conferment of the Nobel Peace Prize
on His Holiness the Dalai Lama (TibetNet)
2. Tibetan Leader to Open Int'l Conference of Chief Justices in Lucknow
3. Tibetan Parliament Honours Legislative Members of Himachal Pradesh
4. Why Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Prize Matters to Tibet (The Huffington Post)
5. WikiLeaks Reveals China's View of Tibet and Taiwan (Sing Tao Daily)
6. Exiles start Walk for Tibet in Taiwan (Deutscse Presse-Agentur)
7. China, Iran jail most journalists in world, media watch group says (M&C)
8. Stop Appeasing China Now (World Press Review)
9. The Chinese consumer awakens (CTV)
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1. The Statement of the Kashag on the
Twenty-first Anniversary of the Conferment of the Nobel Peace Prize
on His Holiness the Dalai Lama
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TibetNet
December 10, 2010
On this occasion of the twenty-first anniversary of the conferment of the Nobel Peace Prize on His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the Kashag, on behalf of the Tibetan people in and outside Tibet, would like to pay our utmost respect and greetings to His Holiness.
His Holiness, who besides being the foremost proponent of the principle of non-violence around the globe by applying the philosophy of dependent origination and non-violence as shown in the teachings of the Buddha, has guided the Tibetan struggle for justice onto to the path of non-violence making it different from other national struggles in the world. His Holiness has also shown, both in principle and in practice, that all global conflicts can be solved through a non-violent approach. These qualities made His Holiness the most suitable recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Thus, when His Holiness accepted the prize in 1989, it increased prestige and the value of the already esteemed Nobel Peace Prize. At the same time, it has also created a widespread awareness about and interest in the just cause of Tibet around the world. Since the award was an inspiration and the trust in the non-violent method and an outstanding recognition of the Tibetan struggle for justice, we commemorate it with highest respect and fondness. On this special occasion, if the Tibetan people in and outside Tibet can reaffirm their genuine pledge for the non-violent path based on trust and understanding, then this occasion will constitute a meaningful celebration.
An important development that we should be happy about and proud of is the conferment of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize to Mr Liu Xiaobo, a prominent Chinese democracy and human rights activist, who is currently in prison in the People’s Republic of China. On behalf of all the Tibetan people, we would like to congratulate Mr Liu Xiaobo, and commend the Nobel Committee for taking this decision without bowing to the Chinese government’s pressure. However, the Kashag is saddened by the Chinese authorities appalling behaviour of not releasing Mr Liu Xiaobo from prison and keeping his wife under house arrest. The Kashag strongly condemns these actions. Since the values and aspirations of all the Nobel laureates are well known around the world, keeping a few individuals in prison cannot lock up their thoughts, principles and aspirations. It is a fact of life that the authoritarian rulers who try to control people’s thought by force and suppression are the most ignorant of human beings.
Although this day is also celebrated as World Human Rights Day, it is a matter of sadness that no one has, thus far, been able to protect human rights enough to be celebrated. Moreover, the first decade of the 21st century is over and yet looking at the fact that a number of Nobel laureates are either in prison, under surveillance or in exile shows the state of human rights today.
These days the advanced nations in the West and the countries in the East who blindly follow the West use many beautiful slogans such as democracy, freedom, equality and human rights, but in actual practice they all appear empty words devoid of any meaning.
At present, a large number of people including Tibetans in Tibet are living with constant fear and torture under the oppressive regime of the People’s Republic of China, denied even their fundamental human rights. Sadly, it has been amply proven that no powerful nations or organizations have either the will or the strength to restore them their rights. In China, being in possession of a copy of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is deemed as a criminal act warranting many years of imprisonment. Yet the United Nations, the author of the declaration, has failed to muster enough pride to even condemn such acts. Under such circumstances, it becomes almost a laughing stock for us to commemorate the World Human Rights Day. However, we celebrate it to keep up with the international norm.
Since 2008 the whole of China and especially the Tibetan areas have been witness to systematic suppression and further restrictions of basic human rights. The right to religious freedom, the right to speech and cultural and educational freedoms have been deliberate targets. The recent proclamation by Chinese government officials in many Tibetan areas ordering a change in the medium of instruction from Tibetan to Mandarin in schools is a large-scale evil plan directed at annihilating the very identity of Tibet. Such policies not only completely ignore the ideologies of Karl Marx, Lenin and Mao on ethnic minorities but are a clear and present attempt at the whole-scale destruction of a people’s language and culture. We unequivocally condemn and criticize such heinous policies. On behalf of Tibetans in exile we offer our solidarity and enthusiastic support to the leaders, students and ordinary people who legally and peacefully request the protection of our language.
Realizing the tremendous strides in exercising modern democracy in the exile Tibetan community under His Holiness the Dalai Lama’s leadership, we fervently hope that Tibetans remain united and work towards the principal cause of Tibet.
Taking this opportunity, Kashag would like to offer the wholehearted prayers of Tibetans in and outside Tibet, beseeching His Holiness to remain as ever the religious and temporal leader of Tibet. From the depth of our hearts we request Your Holiness never to consider or even talk about semi-retirement and full-retirement. At the same time, Kashag implores Tibetans to further advance our collective merit and preserve Tibetan values and ethics, which become the most gratifying offerings to His Holiness.
Finally, the Kashag prays for the long life of His Holiness the Dalai Lana and the spontaneous fulfilment of all his wishes. May the truth of the issue of Tibet prevail soon.
The Kashag
10 December 2010
NB: This was translated from the original Tibetan. Should any discrepancy arise, the Tibetan version should be considered as the final authority.
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2. Tibetan Leader to Open Int'l Conference of Chief Justices in Lucknow
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Friday, 10 December 2010
TibetNet
Dharamshala: Tibetan spiritual leader His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama will inaugurate the 11th International Conference of Chief Justices to be held in Lucknow from 10 - 13 December. His Holiness has left Dharamsala for Delhi yesterday, 09th December.
The International Conference of Chief Justices, organised by Lucknow's City Montessori School, will have participation of senior judges, legal experts and peace activists from countries including Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Argentina, Egypt, Israel and Nigeria, PTI news agency reported.
His Holiness the Dalai Lama will inaugurate the seminar whose theme is "Enforceable International Law is the Need of the Hour", former Gujarat High Court judge Justice A S Qureshi said during a press conference.
Chief Justices and other legal luminaries from 70 countries will likely to give an appeal for a legally binding laws, including on climate change.
Ahead of the conference, a number of senior judges from across the world paid homage at Rajghat, the memorial of Mahatma Gandhi here.
"There is a need for enacting legally binding world laws. Climate change is one of the subjects," Qureshi said, adding, the issue of banning nuclear weapons and controlling pollution will be discussed among other issues.
Addressing the press conference, Ugandan Chief Justice B J Odoki said he called for reforms in international law. "Peace should be made a fundamental right. Without peace, there is no development and no justice," Odoki said.
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3. Tibetan Parliament Honours Legislative Members of Himachal Pradesh
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TibetNet
Thursday, 9 December 2010
DHARAMSALA: His Holiness the Dalai Lama joined Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Prof Prem Kumar Dhumal and members of the state legislative assembly (Vidhan Sabha) at a breakfast reception organised in their honour by the Tibetan Parliament in Exile at the main temple here this morning.
The leader of the opposition Congress Party, Mrs Vidhya Stokes and Vidhan Sabha Speaker Mr Tulsi Ram were also present at the reception. Members of the Tibetan Parliament's standing committee and the Kashag also joined the reception.
Addressing the gathering, Tibetan Parliament's Deputy Speaker Dolma Gyari: “ We would like to extend our gratitude, love and respect to the government and people of Himachal Pradesh for their support towards the Tibetan people in the last more than 50 years.”
Describing Dharamsala as an abode of gods, Congress Leader Vidya Stokes said: “We are fortunate and blessed by His Holiness the Dalai Lama's presence in the state, and we thank him for sustaining Dharamsala as a very beautiful place.”
Expressing his happiness over receiving the invitation to the breakfast reception, Chief Minister Prof Prem Dhumal said His Holiness the Dalai Lama is the greatest living Buddhist monk, Mahatma Buddha of this era, and an apostle of Mahatma Gandhi's message of peace and non-violence.”
Prof Dhumal said India and Tibet cherish a long historical and religious ties. “I pray for the long and healthy life of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. May the issue of Tibet be resolved soon and the relationship between Indians and Tibetan peoples continue to flourish,” he said.
His Holiness the Dalai Lama extended his greetings to the Indian delegation.
His Holiness said “India and Tibet share a relationship of teacher and student”, adding, “he as a student has special connection with the host Himachal Pradesh state as two of his teachers, Khunu Lama Tenzin Gyaltsen and Rigzin Tenpa belong to Himachal.”
His Holiness said Himachal Pradesh has proved very auspicious in helping him to contribute to the promotion of Buddhist values and serve humanity, and to highlight the plight of the Tibetan people inside Tibet for the last more than 50 years in exile.
His Holiness said “ We have known each other very well and get a feeling of meeting old friends whenever occasions arise for such meetings.”
His Holiness said "he has witnessed different chief ministers during the last 50 years, which he said is the strength of Indian democracy and the people's mandate in choosing a competent democratic leadership".
Recounting his visit to a Buddhist temple in the Indian state of Bihar, His Holiness said during the visit, the state chief minister expressed his hope that the state would enjoy progress due to the blessings of Lord Buddha. "But I told him the state could have achieved progress a long time before if it needs only Buddha's blessing. I said the real development would only come through practical action by the concerned chief minister with the blessings of Buddha,” His Holiness said.
The members of state Vidhan Sabha are in Dharamsala to take part in the winter session of the assembly.
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4. Why Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Prize Matters to Tibet
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The Huffington Post
December 10, 2010
Kate Saunders
Communications Director for the International Campaign for Tibet
At a rally in New York on December 10 to mark Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize, a portrait of the imprisoned literary scholar and dissident painted by both a Tibetan and a Chinese artist will be unfurled, and Tibetans across the world will join Chinese people in the celebrations.
This year's Peace Prize matters in Tibet because Liu Xiaobo is among those Chinese intellectuals who link Tibet's destiny to their own -- by arguing that a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Tibet needs to involve the Dalai Lama, and is ultimately in China's interests.
At a time of wrenching social change in China, a new generation of Tibetan intellectuals, artists, writers and scholars are increasingly standing by the side of Liu Xiaobo and other Chinese dissidents. Their stories are less well-known than their Chinese counterparts, but these Tibetan writers, intellectuals and bloggers share their concerns about political repression and state control -- representing a more complex challenge to the Chinese Communist Party than before.
Kunchok Tsephel, founder of the influential Tibetan literary website, 'Butter-Lamp', and a former official in a Chinese government environmental department, is one of those individuals. He was sentenced to 15 years in prison in Tibet a month before Liu Xiaobo in Beijing was sentenced to 11 years in prison on Christmas Day last year. The 'state secrets' charges against Kunchok are believed to be related to content on his website about Tibetan culture, and possibly also to passing on news about the suppression of peaceful protests in his area.
Forty-year-old Kunchok was born into a nomadic family in Tibet, and educated at a Chinese university. He belongs to a new generation of Tibetans fluent in Chinese as well as their own language and familiar with digital technology. The views of this new generation, too young to have experienced the excesses of the Cultural Revolution nor the Chinese takeover of Tibet, are informed by an awareness of the sufferings of Chinese people and their own struggles against the state.
A common theme of their writings is the urgency for political change, with Tibetan intellectuals describing the cause of the protests not as the instigation of the 'Dalai clique' as Beijing contends, but as a result of Tibet's history since the 1950s and the shortcomings of China's Tibet policy. Liu Xiaobo has written boldly on these failings; in March 2008, his name was prominent among the original 29 signatories of a petition to the Chinese authorities calling for dialogue between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama, noting the "serious mistakes" in China's policies in Tibet, and criticizing the Chinese government's response to the protests in Tibet as lacking "a style of governing that conforms to the standards of modern civilization."
Migmar Dhundup is a tall, bookish Tibetan in his thirties who worked for an international NGO in Tibet committed to helping impoverished communities. Migmar, a quiet and reflective individual, was happiest when out in the field conducting health training or creating gardens to enable nomads to grow vegetables, and his favourite book is Ma Jian's 'Red Dust', an account by a Chinese dissident writer of his travels through Tibet. Migmar 'disappeared' in Lhasa in March, 2008, and his friends later heard that he had been sentenced to 14 years in prison, accused of passing information onto the Dalai Lama.
The Tibetan writer Woeser, who is under almost constant surveillance living in Beijing with her Chinese husband, was among the original signatories of Charter 08, a document authored by Liu Xiaobo and other Chinese intellectuals calling for reform of the political system in China. Woeser, who is a friend of Liu Xiaobo's, wrote:
Our 'fight' [today] does not signify as it did for Mao something bloodstained and violent, an armed revolution, a class struggle. Non-violence is also a struggle, a greater and more enduring fight! For each individual, this fight starts with oneself, in the present moment, in each particular detail of living. Let us begin identifying ourselves as Tibetans, for this is our duty: any effort of daily life, however small, is still a kind of struggle.
Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize also honours individuals like Woeser, Migmar Dhondup, Kunchok Tsephel, and hundreds of other Tibetans whose silencing by the state now speaks more loudly than before. Their courage in speaking truth to power is of critical importance for Tibet's future -- and China's. It has never been more true than it is this year to say that the prizes to Nobel Peace Laureates who cannot attend the ceremony are among the most important of all.
Follow Kate Saunders on Twitter: www.twitter.com/katesictibet <http://www.twitter.com/katesictibet>
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5. WikiLeaks Reveals China's View of Tibet and Taiwan
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Sing Tao Daily, News Report, Dec 09, 2010
New America Media
Chinese leaders may have different opinions about Taiwan’s economic development and political reform, but they all seem to agree on a tough stance on Tibet, according to cables from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing released by WikiLeaks.
China Times reports the cables show that Beijing accepts that the United States may meddle in Taiwan affairs, but China will never accept foreign forces interference in Tibetan affairs. According to a cable on March 28, 2009, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Chinese leaders are more emotional about Taiwan, and more calculated and strategic when it comes to Tibet.
A cable on Jan. 6, 2009 from the U.S. Embassy reveals that despite much improved China-Taiwan relations, the Taiwan issue remains one of the most challenging issues in U.S.-China relations. China Times reports that U.S. Ambassador Clark T. Randt replied with the message that the United States should continue to support Taiwan, and the way to ease tensions between China and Taiwan would be increase Taiwan's international role and reduce China's military actions toward Taiwan.
The cable also revealed that the United States needs to use a variety of diplomatic strategies to protect Taiwan from Chinese intimidation. A cable from the U.S. Embassy on Jan. 28, 2010, revealed that economic factors will remain an important issue in U.S.-China relations in 2010, and China was strongly dissatisfied with the U.S. support of the Dalai Lama and weapno sales to Taiwan, which may make China less willing to cooperate with the United States.
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6. Exiles start Walk for Tibet in Taiwan
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Deutscse Presse-Agentur
Dec 10, 2010
Taipei - The nephew of the Dalai Lama started a Walk for Tibet Friday in Taiwan to raise public awareness about China's poor human rights record in the region.
About 50 Tibetan exiles and supporters gathered in central Taipei to see Jime Norbu begin the trek, which is to end in Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan on December 23.
A dozen Tibetans are walking with Norbu while other supporters are to join him on different sections of the trek.
Along the way, they plan to show films and give talks about the lives of Tibetans under Chinese rule.
'We start the walk in Taiwan today because today is the world Human Rights Day and it is the day when the Dalai Lama received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989,' Norbu, son of the Dalai Lama's elder brother Thubten Jigme Norbu, told reporters.
'We dedicate this walk to the millions of Tibetans who have died in peaceful protests against China's occupation since 1959 and want to call on the whole world to support this year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, China's jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo,' he said.
The Walk for Tibet was launched in Indianapolis in 1995 by the US-based Tubten Jime Norbu, who died in 2008.
Since then, Tibetan exiles in the United States and other countries have staged a Walk for Tibet or Bike for Tibet every year.
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7. China, Iran jail most journalists in world, media watch group says
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Monsters and Critics.com
Dec 10, 2010
New York - A New York-based global media watch group Thursday said that 145 journalists
were currently jailed around the world because of their work - the highest number in 14 years.
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) said that Iran and China led the list, each with 34 imprisoned journalists. Together, they accounted for nearly half of the world's total.
Eritrea, Myanmar and Uzbekistan filled out the remaining roles of the five worst jailers among 28 nations currently imprisoning journalists.
'The increase in the number of journalists jailed around the world is a shocking development,' said CPJ executive director Joel Simon.
Iranian detainees range from high-profile writers such as Issa Saharkhiz, a well-known state journalist who started writing reformist columns, to Navid Mohebbi, a women's rights blogger who, at age 18, was the youngest in the CPJ study of jailed journalists.
China in 2009 had jailed 24 journalists. This year's increase to 34 included Uighur and Tibetan journalists who have covered regional unrest. Among the detainees were a Tibetan writer known as Buddha, who wrote about economic disparities between Tibet and the rest of China, and Gheyrat Niyaz, an Uighur website editor who covered ethnic violence in Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.
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8. Stop Appeasing China Now
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Jeysundhar D
World Press Review Op-Ed
December 9, 2010
The last decade has borne witness to the decline of the West coupled with the rise of the Asian giants, China and India. The concept of carrot and stick, once expertly used by the United States, has now found an able wielder in China. Chinese hard power, especially, has become a game changer for meeting the future resource demands of the country through buying and bullying dictatorships in Africa. The Middle Kingdom, with its coffers enriched by a booming trade, is capable of and willing to muscle its way through, in order to ensure that its demands are met.
In the last few years and especially since the Beijing Olympics, China's diplomatic and military assertiveness have been amply aided by its powerful economic muscle. This newfound confidence—although China was always vocal in voicing its demands—has its roots in the success of China's pressure tactics during the Beijing Olympics. While various countries protested against choosing China as the venue—keeping in mind China's role in the Darfur conflict, support for Myanmar's junta, and most important of all, the oppression of Tibetan activists—countries like France were planning a boycott of the games. China blatantly threatened these boycotters with economic consequences, and one by one, they gave in. Despite reports of restrictions placed on journalists, civil unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang, IOC President Jacques Rogge claimed that the games had been truly exceptional.
The success of these pressure tactics has convinced China of its effectiveness, and this has been reflected in several of China's moves. The aggressive show put up during the 60th Anniversary of the Foundation of the PRC was a feast to the Chinese PLA and a concealed threat to the West. It dealt a death blow to the "peaceful rise of China" rhetoric often stated by Chinese leadership in global forums. China also used its economic clout to resolve the border dispute with Russia with the latter ceding a small amount of territory. This paved the way for the completion of the ESPO oil pipeline supplying 15 million tonnes of oil per year for 20 years in exchange for a loan to Russian companies. China's arm-twisting was also visible in an effort made by the European countries to lift the arms embargo but was thwarted by the United States. The United States has, though, been unable to prevent the smuggling of technology from Pakistan to China.
Speaking of the United States, it is worth mentioning that around 60 percent of China's $2.5 trillion forex reserves are held in U.S. government and institutional bonds. Never has the United States owed so much money to any one country. This is playing a definite role in shaping U.S. China policy. This policy has seen a shift under Obama, who is trying to reconcile with China on several issues. Despite repeated mention of the issue of deliberate undervaluing of the Renminbi and human right violations in Tibet, the United States has restrained itself from lodging a formal complaint with WTO, and top diplomats rarely, if ever, mention the Tibet issue while visiting China. The U.S. stance in recent times has been one of non-intervention in China's internal matters.
Japan's case has been no different. Traditionally upfront and steady in its China policy, Japan had to bow down and give way in the recent spat over the arrest of a Chinese captain for trespassing into its waters. This has, in a twisted way, legitimized Chinese territorial claims in the East China Sea. Japan faced the classical catch 22 whereby it had to either swallow its national pride or risk losing the lifeline of its hybrid automobile industry. Japan, as in the case of all other countries that had conflicts with China, chose the former. China's efforts in blocking the Nobel Prize awarding ceremony to express its objection to the prize awarded to Liu Xiaobao went in vain. Eventually, China has mounted a diplomatic campaign to prevent countries from attending the ceremony. As a result, countries such as Russia, Cuba, Iraq and Kazakhstan have decided not to be represented at the ceremony.
These successes have boosted China's aspirations and ambitions, and it has effectively started believing more in the stick than in the carrot. In fact, China wants the whole world to feed it with carrots while it uses the stick on all of them. And until now, the powers-that-be have complied. But there is an increasing consensus among analysts that this dangerous trend needs to stop. The Cold War saw a similar posturing by the United States to exercise its will in the third world, toppling independent governments, installing puppet democracies, utter disregard to human rights if there were economic and strategic interests involved. A sense of strategic déjà vu has been felt in international circles, and the world, wearied by economic slowdowns and recessions, certainly is not ready for conflict on a scale as large as the wars in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
The success of China's pressure tactics, if allowed to continue, will snowball into even more unpalatable behavior from China and will set a dangerous precedent in the way countries resolve disputes. It is high time that the Chinese impression regarding its economic muscle being a panacea for its problems is negated. Now, who bells the cat? And how do we go about it?
The world powers, including the United States and the European Union, can start by showing full presence at the Oslo Nobel Peace Prize awarding ceremony and thwarting China's attempts to torpedo the event. The international community needs to reject the Chinese pressure, whatever be the immediate consequences, keeping in mind their long-term national security in mind. The world also needs to show China that the factory needs the market as much as the market needs the factory, or perhaps even more. This would place an effective check on China's ambitions and aggressive measures.
As China's neighbor and the other Asian giant, India needs to send a clear message to China by canvassing support for the Tibetan cause as well as for freeing Liu Xiaobao before the awards ceremony. India has already taken the first step in this regard when it did not stop the Dalai Lama from visiting Arunachal Pradesh despite repeated denouncements from China. The recent announcement by India that it would be attending the ceremony is a harbinger of times to come. Those countries that have, as of now, indicated against attending the ceremony should take India's lead in the issue. It is therefore important and imperative to send a message to China that it cannot use its bullying tactics any longer.
Jeysundhar D is a freelance political analyst and blogger from India. His blog is jeys-abode.blogspot.com <http://jeys-abode.blogspot.com> .
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9. The Chinese consumer awakens
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ALAN WHEATLEY
CTV.ca
December 10, 2010
In the Tibetan monastery town of Xiahe, Gyelyanjia is visiting for a festival and taking the opportunity to do some shopping.
He has spent 20 yuan ($3 U.S.) at Ding's electrical appliance shop on a heat-belt, which he can fill with boiling water and strap around his waist to ward off the bitter winter chill on the Himalayan plateau.
The 66-year-old grins: “I already have a television at home. But I would like a washing machine and a fridge. I hope to buy those next year.”
Timothy Geithner harbors similar hopes. The U.S. Treasury Secretary is counting on hundreds of millions of Chinese like Gyelyanjia to spend more and save less.
That way, Chinese factories would produce more for domestic consumption and less for export, helping to narrow the trade imbalances that are destabilizing the global economy.
Chinese consumption is, in fact, strong. It has grown by more than 9 per cent a year, after adjustment for inflation, over the past decade. China overtook the United States in 2009 as the world's leading automobile market. The real-estate market is on fire, swelling demand for appliances and furniture. China is No. 2 in sales of luxury goods.
There are no luxuries for sale in Xiahe, a rapidly developing town in the western province of Gansu and home to Labrang monastery, the largest outside Tibet.
Tibetans wrapped in long woolen robes, their hair falling in long plaits, crowd the broad pavement lined with shops along the main street leading to the sprawling monastery. Monks, taking a break from their prayers, chat on mobile phones on their way to the tea house or to buy a pair of handmade felt boots.
Renqing, 33, who like many Tibetans uses only one name, watches over her two-year-old daughter, sleeping in her stroller outside a shop. “Life is difficult for us. I only have enough money to feed and clothe my family.”
Still, she admits, she has a washing machine, a fridge, a television and a computer at home. And, of course, a DVD player. But it's not enough. “If there's one thing I dream of having, it's Tibetan religious art. I wish I could buy statues to put in my home.”
The Ding family are Hui minority Muslims. Mrs. Ding Yuying gestures around her store filled with freezers and televisions. “Business is up 50 per cent this year because the government has given a subsidy to farmers to buy electrical goods,” she said.
Yet appearances are deceptive, at least through the prism of economic statistics.
Spending might be sturdy in China, but investment has been off the charts. As a result, consumption was just 35.6 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2009, from 46.1 per cent a decade earlier - and that was helped by a massive government stimulus to counter the global financial crisis.
The task for China's policymakers is to lift that proportion by boosting wages, speeding up urbanization and building a social safety net so people do not need to save so much for a rainy day.
“Consumption will be the story of the next five to 10 years, and because we're talking about a fifth of humanity, it will have a huge impact on global business,” said David Gosset, director of the Euro-China Center for International and Business Relations at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.
Still, he doubted China's consumption share would reach the roughly 60 per cent rate of the European Union, let alone the 70 per cent rate of the United States. “The Chinese will never consume as we do in the West, especially in the U.S.”
The opportunities for retailers are nevertheless mouth-watering, if they can adapt their sales methods to thousands of fast-growing towns across China where budgets and tastes are a world apart from the bright lights of Beijing and Shanghai.
Patrick Kung, Greater China chairman for Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV, sees huge growth in the coming decade in what he calls China's “emerging markets” - lower-tier towns and the countryside - while coastal cities will gradually become saturated.
“A smart company will be proactively investing and looking how to tap those markets,” Mr. Kung told a conference organized by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing.
Scenting the potential profits, many multinationals are doing exactly that.
General Motors, the biggest overseas automaker in China, is busy rolling out affordable models aimed at smaller cities that it says could account for 60 per cent of its business within five years.
“Those big coastal cities are rapidly becoming less than a quarter of our business and the real growth is in what we call Tier-3, Tier-4 cities,” Terry Johnsson, vice president of GM's China operations, told Reuters.
German sports goods company Adidas AG plans to open more than 2,500 stores in smaller Chinese cities by 2015.
Foreign and domestic retailers in sectors from hotels to instant noodles are reporting surging sales from lower-tier cities, which are benefiting from a wave of corporate investment and government measures to support consumption, according to Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities and commodities at J.P. Morgan.
“If you're not doing well, it's because you have an execution problem,” she said. “I think in the next 3-5 years we're going to see the interior really taking over as a major growth driver for China's overall economy.”
The logic behind aggressive expansion plans sounds compelling. But they will pay off only if the Communist Party is prepared to overturn China's growth model. That means taking on vested interests that thrive financially and politically from the way the economy is run, from well-connected property developers and their friends in local government, to the Party bosses of banks and big firms who wield immense power in their industries.
China has enjoyed three decades of double-digit GDP growth by favoring investment over consumption and export-orientated manufacturing over domestic services.
Heavy industry has benefited from a seemingly bottomless pit of cheap labor; cheap and plentiful credit supplied by state-owned banks; cheap land provided by local authorities keen to generate jobs and taxes; cheap utility tariffs; and, last but not least in Washington's eyes, a cheap exchange rate.
All these factors amount, economists say, to a tax on consumers and a subsidy for producers. Unable to sell all they make at home because incomes are suppressed, manufacturers have to export the surplus - to the chagrin of critics such as Mr. Geithner.
One statistic dramatizes this imbalance at the heart of China's economy: the share of national wealth going to workers as wage income plummeted to 39.7 per cent in 2007 from 53.1 per cent in 1998.
Seen in that light, it is no wonder consumption has contracted as a share of GDP. But could China be on the cusp of change?
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yearbook shows wages have surged and accounted for 46.6 per cent of GDP in 2009. The bureau gave no explanation for the rise, nor has it published figures for 2008.
Louis Kuijs, an economist at the World Bank in Beijing, said he would not be surprised if wages and consumption were bottoming out as a proportion of GDP.
But he added: “It is a bit too early to say that we are obviously in a new era where we will see a quick reversal of these trends. We don't have enough evidence either on the data side or the policy side.”
China's transformation from an impoverished backwater to the world's second-largest economy has created an army of super wealthy who seized on the market reforms that Deng Xiaoping launched in the late 1970s. “To get rich is glorious,” Deng Xiaoping is said to have declared, sounding a rallying cry to astute private entrepreneurs and unscrupulous strippers of state assets alike.
Now the rank and file is beginning to catch-up a little bit. Ting Lu with Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that nationwide wage growth this year will be about 14 per cent. “
It doesn't feel that way, though, to Wang Yanjun, a 35-year-old migrant worker from a village in the central province of Henan who packed in his job as a carpenter on construction sites and moved to Beijing after the 2008 Olympics. He came with his wife but, typical of millions of migrants, they left their children, a daughter, 14, and a son, 8, back home.
“It was a really tough job and I quit, hoping to make more money in Beijing. But it turned out it's not easy to make money here either,” Mr. Wang said.
On a chilly Sunday night on a street corner near the biggest gold shop in Beijing, Mr. Wang was selling barbecued meat, fish and vegetables for between 0.5 yuan and 3 yuan apiece from an unlicensed flatbed tricycle.
Wearing a black jacket smeared in cooking oil that he bought off the street for 80 yuan, Mr. Wang says he and his wife can clear 80 yuan a day, or 100 yuan in summer.
They pay 550 yuan a month for a small room and share a bathroom with another dozen migrant families. Mr. Wang says he has not set foot in a department store or a fast-food restaurant since he came to Beijing.
Asked whether they went to the cinema or to a park now and then, Mr. Wang looked at his wife before answering: “We don't go to places where you have to pay get in.”
The official statistics, though, suggest China's 200 million-plus migrant workers like Mr. Wang have seen their earnings rise 18.7 percent in the first nine months.
This partly reflects a catch-up after a year of pay restraint in export factories in 2009, when China was coping with the global financial crisis. But demographic factors suggest wage inflation is here to stay.
China is not running short of labor.
Apart from the unemployed and underemployed in its cities, China could grow its food much more efficiently. Fang Cai, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, estimated in 2008 that China had 107 million surplus rural laborers or 22 per cent of the work force in the countryside.
However, more than half of those surplus workers are over 40 - hardly prime candidates to stitch shirts or snap together an MP3 player. Indeed, China is already starting to run short at the margin of the nimble young workers prized by factories and construction sites.
Lu with BoA Merrill Lynch estimates the 20-45 age group will shrivel from 39.5 per cent of the population this year to 34.2 per cent in 2020.
“Massive migration from rural to urban areas over the past decade helped cover the manufacturing labor shrinkage problem, but it is widely believed that rural surplus labor younger than 40 is already very limited.”
Cities in the southern manufacturing heartlands of Guangdong have responded to the shortages by raising minimum wages by more than 20 per cent this year. Foxconn, which employs 800,000 workers and makes electronic gadgets for companies including Apple and, trumped that with a 30 percent pay rise.
Victor Fung, chairman of Li & Fung, the world's largest sourcing company, went so far as to say, in an interview with the Financial Times, that Foxconn had sounded the death knell for the cheap-labor model that propelled China to become “the workshop of the world.”
Worried about China's growing income inequality, the government is happy to see the laws of supply and demand push up wages. Early this year, it turned a blind eye to a rash of strikes at foreign-owned plants in support of higher pay.
Boosting wages will be a central plank of China's five-year plan for 2011-2016, officials say. But would putting more money in people's wallets suffice to spur spending?
“It is tempting to think that high wage increases in the coming years will raise the role of household income and consumption. However, I do not think rebalancing will happen by itself -- it will require significant policy adjustment,” said Mr. Kuijs, the World Bank economist.
Take savings.
China is slowly building up a pension system, mainly for urban workers, and has made compulsory education free, in principle if not always in practice. The government is also extending health insurance and basic health care to fill a vacuum left when the “iron rice bowl” of cradle-to-grave social security for industrial workers was dismantled in the 1990s.
But many Chinese, especially older people and peasant farmers, still salt away as much money as they can.
“It's true that people don't really need to save as much nowadays because there are certain provisions. But it's a habit,” said Zhang Weiguo, 48, a former soldier who is now a driver. “You can't get the older generation to change their habits.”
But the government could try to change attitudes by spending more on behalf of its citizens instead of making them dig into their own pockets. China's budgeting instincts are deeply conservative. Outlays on education, for example, fall well short of international standards.
Increasing transfer payments to consumers and reducing their tax burden could be financed by requiring state-owned enterprises to increase the paltry dividends they hand over to the central government.
The powerful Party bosses that run big state-owned firms and banks have so far blocked efforts at redistribution, hoarding their cash instead. With government savings also on the rise - tax revenues are up 22 per cent this year - China's gross national savings rate has soared to well over 50 per cent of GDP.
China is awash with cash, but it is in the wrong places, an important reason why consumption growth has lagged growth in incomes for most of the last decade.
“There is no sign yet of the falling household savings rate that many believe is necessary to rebalance the economy,” said Mark Williams with Capital Economics, a London consultancy.
Mr. Zhang lives in Yanqing, a nondescript town of 100,000 people about 80 kilometres northwest of Beijing, just beyond the Badaling section of the Great Wall popular with visitors to the capital.
Yanqing is the sort of middling Tier-5 town seen all across China. The buildings are forgettable, fronted with white-glazed tiles and blue tinted-glass windows. Lunch of freshly made steamed buns and black bean soup costs 17 yuan for two. The biggest draw in town is the local KFC, a throng of boisterous, plump children testifying to urban China's ready embrace of Western fast food.
What does set Yanqing apart is that it has a Wal-Mart. The world's largest retailer opened shop here in 2009 hoping to catch the wave of the consumer boom beyond China's big cities.
The store, set in a shopping mall, was busy but not humming one recent Saturday morning. Ruddy-faced country folk rubbed shoulders with better-dressed brethren, whom retail specialists might categorize as “aspirational shoppers.”
“The prices are slightly higher, but the quality is better,” one man said approvingly. Pierre Cardin down jackets were marked down to 700 yuan but were finding no takers. “The most people can afford around here is 500,” a saleswoman said.
The proliferation of retail outlets in Yanqing illustrates another salient feature of the Chinese economy: the fierce competition for consumer dollars. Across China, multinational retailers of sporting goods such as Adidas and Nike, for example, face an array of local rivals including LI-NING, Erke, 361, ANTA and X-step.
“These are not small players. They're big boys. They're all big brands and they're all over,” said Paul French with retail consultants Access Asia in Shanghai. “A rising tide is not lifting all boats - it's just very competitive, fiercely competitive.”
Chinese retailers with big sales forces were often able to respond more nimbly to capitalize on fast-changing markets, added Franc Kaiser with InterChina Consulting, another Shanghai-based consultancy.
“The guys who react fastest to the opportunities are usually the Chinese. If they see a space in the market, boom, they're there!” Mr. Kaiser said. “These competitors can come from nowhere, but within three or four years they can roll up the market.”
For all its ordinariness, Yanqing is the sort of place that is destined to flourish if the Party succeeds with another of the fundamental reforms it has proclaimed - allowing migrant workers from the countryside to settle with their families in smaller towns.
Migrants with a rural certificate of residence, or “hukou,” who move to a city to work, find it hard to get access to health, education and welfare services.
“I can't afford to bring my two kids to Beijing, and no school in Beijing will admit them in any case,” said Mr. Wang, the carpenter-turned-food peddler from Henan.
If migrant workers like him could put down roots without facing such discrimination, they would in theory save less and spend more on everything from subways to noodle shops - labor-intensive services that do not add to the trade surplus.
As it is, Mr. Wang said he and his wife still manage to save 20,000 yuan a year. “If I spend the money, who would pay the school fees for my kids and who would take care of us when we become ill?” But once he's saved 100,000 yuan, Mr. Wang wants to go back home and start a business.
Thousands of young graduates from out of town, dubbed “ant tribes,” also find the streets of Beijing are not paved with gold. They live in cramped, often squalid conditions on the outskirts of the capital unable to get a foot on the property ladder or find a job that matches their qualifications.
In downtown Beijing, rag-and-bone men rummage through garbage bins. In alleys a few minutes walk from the capital's plushest hotels, indoor plumbing is the exception rather than the rule.
Still, the importance of cities for the consumption story cannot be overstated. They account for 76 per cent of China's household consumption even though the urbanization rate is only 47 per cent - about the same as the United States a century ago. Incomes in towns are three times higher than in the countryside.
With the urbanization rate not likely to peak until 2030 at around 68 per cent, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, towns thus have the potential to be a big driver of growth led by consumption and services, not investment and industry.
Consultants McKinsey & Co expects China by 2025 to have 221 cities with more than one million inhabitants, compared with 35 in Europe today. Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan, China's most populous province, will have a bigger economy than Sweden, Hong Kong or Israel by 2020, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
To accommodate the ever-swelling ranks of urban dwellers, the Communist Party is embarking on another huge policy shift.
It is ramping up construction of subsidized housing for families on low incomes who cannot afford stratospheric market prices.
Ms. Ulrich at J.P. Morgan expects China to break ground on six million such apartments every year during the next five-year plan.
The boost to consumption that will come from urbanization and granting more migrants permanent residency has every chance of being reinforced by China's demographic profile.
With the working-age population set to shrink from around 2015, China is destined to grow old rapidly. As it does, retirees will draw down their savings - as has happened in Japan.
At the same time, a younger generation of well-educated Chinese who never knew the privations their parents and grandparents suffered have fewer inhibitions about spending.
Meet Hou Jiexin.
Ms. Hou, a 27-year-old finance manager originally from southwest China, earns about 200,000 yuan ($30,000) a year and saves barely a penny.
“My parents are saving for me back in Chongqing for when I get married, but I'm not saving,” said Ms. Hou, a Burberry scarf around her neck and a Swatch on her wrist as she sipped a latte in the posh Oriental Plaza shopping mall in downtown Beijing.
Ms. Hou belongs to what is called in China the “Moonlight Clan,” young adults who spend their entire monthly salary, earned over the course of a lunar cycle.
In addition to a 4,500 yuan monthly mortgage payment for her 45-square-meter studio apartment, she spends her money on Estee Lauder and Biotherm cosmetics, vacations, restaurants - and classes to prepare for admission to an MBA course.
Confident that her salary will keep rising nicely, she is planning a trip to Europe and fancies splashing out as much as 40,000 yuan on a Chanel bag.
“My mom says I already have way too many shoes and bags,” Ms. Hou said. “What I spend in Beijing is about two or three times what my parents spend between them in Chongqing.”
Her mobile phone is a Nokia 7100, which she bought in the summer after watching a movie about an office lady who got promoted to be a senior manager in an international company.
“I noticed the phone on the big screen, and I bought it because it looked very nice,” Ms. Hou said. “But yes, I know very well that it's time to get an iPhone 4.”
Put all the pieces of the policy and demographic jigsaw together and the prospects are for a golden age of consumption in China, according to Morgan Stanley.
China's consumption, now just 20 per cent that of America's, will reach two-thirds of the U.S. level by 2020, the bank projects. When it comes to incremental consumption in dollar terms, China overtook the United States back in 2008.
Goldman Sachs is equally bullish. It forecasts that Chinese retail sales, now worth $1.8-trillion a year, will leap to $5-6-trillion by 2020. “That's what this decade is all about,” said Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
It will be a long time before the Moonlight Clan makes it to Xiahe. Life there ticks over more modestly than in Beijing.
In the Sunshine General Goods Store, a middle-aged Tibetan nomad inspects a blue plastic bucket and then a pink one. She turns each one upside down and then shows the blue one to her husband. He grunts at the shopkeeper, who asks for 18 yuan. They settle on 15 yuan, with a lid thrown in.
“They've come in from the pastures to worship and to shop. They'll use it to hold yak milk,” the shopkeeper explains.
Down the street, Wangchen, another nomad, is buying thick cloth that looks like a polyester blanket for 15 yuan a metre. It will make her first new dress in five years.
She and her husband are shopping with a friend, a huge black and white sacred Tibetan bead around his neck to ward off evil.
“Our life doesn't get any better. I have three children to raise and it's very costly. I can't spend my money on luxuries,” the 33-year-old nomad says. He wears a rough jacket and leather trousers tucked into heavy boots.
Raising the living standards of nomads like Wangchen and of migrants like Wang is the all-consuming priority of the Communist Party. With close to 300 million people still scraping by on less than $2 a day, the task is daunting. Yet an even larger number of Chinese has been lifted out of poverty in the past 30 years. Their lifestyle is modest but it is incalculably better than it was.
Drolma picks through windcheaters and plastic trousers piled high on a Xiahe street stall and hands over 60 yuan for a khaki jacket.
“Of course I can afford to go shopping. We are doing very well these days. We raise yaks.” She holds up a yellow box with a picture of Hong Kong film idol Jackie Chan on the front. “I've bought a DVD player. It cost me 700 yuan, but I can manage that.”
Her husband drives up on his motorcycle and the couple disappears into a shop selling the gorgeous gold brocades that Tibetans like to adorn their hats. He breaks into a smile and tries on a new jacket.
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------ Einde van doorgestuurd bericht
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Issue ID: 2010/12/10
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Contents
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1. The Statement of the Kashag on the
Twenty-first Anniversary of the Conferment of the Nobel Peace Prize
on His Holiness the Dalai Lama (TibetNet)
2. Tibetan Leader to Open Int'l Conference of Chief Justices in Lucknow
3. Tibetan Parliament Honours Legislative Members of Himachal Pradesh
4. Why Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Prize Matters to Tibet (The Huffington Post)
5. WikiLeaks Reveals China's View of Tibet and Taiwan (Sing Tao Daily)
6. Exiles start Walk for Tibet in Taiwan (Deutscse Presse-Agentur)
7. China, Iran jail most journalists in world, media watch group says (M&C)
8. Stop Appeasing China Now (World Press Review)
9. The Chinese consumer awakens (CTV)
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1. The Statement of the Kashag on the
Twenty-first Anniversary of the Conferment of the Nobel Peace Prize
on His Holiness the Dalai Lama
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TibetNet
December 10, 2010
On this occasion of the twenty-first anniversary of the conferment of the Nobel Peace Prize on His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the Kashag, on behalf of the Tibetan people in and outside Tibet, would like to pay our utmost respect and greetings to His Holiness.
His Holiness, who besides being the foremost proponent of the principle of non-violence around the globe by applying the philosophy of dependent origination and non-violence as shown in the teachings of the Buddha, has guided the Tibetan struggle for justice onto to the path of non-violence making it different from other national struggles in the world. His Holiness has also shown, both in principle and in practice, that all global conflicts can be solved through a non-violent approach. These qualities made His Holiness the most suitable recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Thus, when His Holiness accepted the prize in 1989, it increased prestige and the value of the already esteemed Nobel Peace Prize. At the same time, it has also created a widespread awareness about and interest in the just cause of Tibet around the world. Since the award was an inspiration and the trust in the non-violent method and an outstanding recognition of the Tibetan struggle for justice, we commemorate it with highest respect and fondness. On this special occasion, if the Tibetan people in and outside Tibet can reaffirm their genuine pledge for the non-violent path based on trust and understanding, then this occasion will constitute a meaningful celebration.
An important development that we should be happy about and proud of is the conferment of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize to Mr Liu Xiaobo, a prominent Chinese democracy and human rights activist, who is currently in prison in the People’s Republic of China. On behalf of all the Tibetan people, we would like to congratulate Mr Liu Xiaobo, and commend the Nobel Committee for taking this decision without bowing to the Chinese government’s pressure. However, the Kashag is saddened by the Chinese authorities appalling behaviour of not releasing Mr Liu Xiaobo from prison and keeping his wife under house arrest. The Kashag strongly condemns these actions. Since the values and aspirations of all the Nobel laureates are well known around the world, keeping a few individuals in prison cannot lock up their thoughts, principles and aspirations. It is a fact of life that the authoritarian rulers who try to control people’s thought by force and suppression are the most ignorant of human beings.
Although this day is also celebrated as World Human Rights Day, it is a matter of sadness that no one has, thus far, been able to protect human rights enough to be celebrated. Moreover, the first decade of the 21st century is over and yet looking at the fact that a number of Nobel laureates are either in prison, under surveillance or in exile shows the state of human rights today.
These days the advanced nations in the West and the countries in the East who blindly follow the West use many beautiful slogans such as democracy, freedom, equality and human rights, but in actual practice they all appear empty words devoid of any meaning.
At present, a large number of people including Tibetans in Tibet are living with constant fear and torture under the oppressive regime of the People’s Republic of China, denied even their fundamental human rights. Sadly, it has been amply proven that no powerful nations or organizations have either the will or the strength to restore them their rights. In China, being in possession of a copy of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is deemed as a criminal act warranting many years of imprisonment. Yet the United Nations, the author of the declaration, has failed to muster enough pride to even condemn such acts. Under such circumstances, it becomes almost a laughing stock for us to commemorate the World Human Rights Day. However, we celebrate it to keep up with the international norm.
Since 2008 the whole of China and especially the Tibetan areas have been witness to systematic suppression and further restrictions of basic human rights. The right to religious freedom, the right to speech and cultural and educational freedoms have been deliberate targets. The recent proclamation by Chinese government officials in many Tibetan areas ordering a change in the medium of instruction from Tibetan to Mandarin in schools is a large-scale evil plan directed at annihilating the very identity of Tibet. Such policies not only completely ignore the ideologies of Karl Marx, Lenin and Mao on ethnic minorities but are a clear and present attempt at the whole-scale destruction of a people’s language and culture. We unequivocally condemn and criticize such heinous policies. On behalf of Tibetans in exile we offer our solidarity and enthusiastic support to the leaders, students and ordinary people who legally and peacefully request the protection of our language.
Realizing the tremendous strides in exercising modern democracy in the exile Tibetan community under His Holiness the Dalai Lama’s leadership, we fervently hope that Tibetans remain united and work towards the principal cause of Tibet.
Taking this opportunity, Kashag would like to offer the wholehearted prayers of Tibetans in and outside Tibet, beseeching His Holiness to remain as ever the religious and temporal leader of Tibet. From the depth of our hearts we request Your Holiness never to consider or even talk about semi-retirement and full-retirement. At the same time, Kashag implores Tibetans to further advance our collective merit and preserve Tibetan values and ethics, which become the most gratifying offerings to His Holiness.
Finally, the Kashag prays for the long life of His Holiness the Dalai Lana and the spontaneous fulfilment of all his wishes. May the truth of the issue of Tibet prevail soon.
The Kashag
10 December 2010
NB: This was translated from the original Tibetan. Should any discrepancy arise, the Tibetan version should be considered as the final authority.
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2. Tibetan Leader to Open Int'l Conference of Chief Justices in Lucknow
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Friday, 10 December 2010
TibetNet
Dharamshala: Tibetan spiritual leader His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama will inaugurate the 11th International Conference of Chief Justices to be held in Lucknow from 10 - 13 December. His Holiness has left Dharamsala for Delhi yesterday, 09th December.
The International Conference of Chief Justices, organised by Lucknow's City Montessori School, will have participation of senior judges, legal experts and peace activists from countries including Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Argentina, Egypt, Israel and Nigeria, PTI news agency reported.
His Holiness the Dalai Lama will inaugurate the seminar whose theme is "Enforceable International Law is the Need of the Hour", former Gujarat High Court judge Justice A S Qureshi said during a press conference.
Chief Justices and other legal luminaries from 70 countries will likely to give an appeal for a legally binding laws, including on climate change.
Ahead of the conference, a number of senior judges from across the world paid homage at Rajghat, the memorial of Mahatma Gandhi here.
"There is a need for enacting legally binding world laws. Climate change is one of the subjects," Qureshi said, adding, the issue of banning nuclear weapons and controlling pollution will be discussed among other issues.
Addressing the press conference, Ugandan Chief Justice B J Odoki said he called for reforms in international law. "Peace should be made a fundamental right. Without peace, there is no development and no justice," Odoki said.
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3. Tibetan Parliament Honours Legislative Members of Himachal Pradesh
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TibetNet
Thursday, 9 December 2010
DHARAMSALA: His Holiness the Dalai Lama joined Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Prof Prem Kumar Dhumal and members of the state legislative assembly (Vidhan Sabha) at a breakfast reception organised in their honour by the Tibetan Parliament in Exile at the main temple here this morning.
The leader of the opposition Congress Party, Mrs Vidhya Stokes and Vidhan Sabha Speaker Mr Tulsi Ram were also present at the reception. Members of the Tibetan Parliament's standing committee and the Kashag also joined the reception.
Addressing the gathering, Tibetan Parliament's Deputy Speaker Dolma Gyari: “ We would like to extend our gratitude, love and respect to the government and people of Himachal Pradesh for their support towards the Tibetan people in the last more than 50 years.”
Describing Dharamsala as an abode of gods, Congress Leader Vidya Stokes said: “We are fortunate and blessed by His Holiness the Dalai Lama's presence in the state, and we thank him for sustaining Dharamsala as a very beautiful place.”
Expressing his happiness over receiving the invitation to the breakfast reception, Chief Minister Prof Prem Dhumal said His Holiness the Dalai Lama is the greatest living Buddhist monk, Mahatma Buddha of this era, and an apostle of Mahatma Gandhi's message of peace and non-violence.”
Prof Dhumal said India and Tibet cherish a long historical and religious ties. “I pray for the long and healthy life of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. May the issue of Tibet be resolved soon and the relationship between Indians and Tibetan peoples continue to flourish,” he said.
His Holiness the Dalai Lama extended his greetings to the Indian delegation.
His Holiness said “India and Tibet share a relationship of teacher and student”, adding, “he as a student has special connection with the host Himachal Pradesh state as two of his teachers, Khunu Lama Tenzin Gyaltsen and Rigzin Tenpa belong to Himachal.”
His Holiness said Himachal Pradesh has proved very auspicious in helping him to contribute to the promotion of Buddhist values and serve humanity, and to highlight the plight of the Tibetan people inside Tibet for the last more than 50 years in exile.
His Holiness said “ We have known each other very well and get a feeling of meeting old friends whenever occasions arise for such meetings.”
His Holiness said "he has witnessed different chief ministers during the last 50 years, which he said is the strength of Indian democracy and the people's mandate in choosing a competent democratic leadership".
Recounting his visit to a Buddhist temple in the Indian state of Bihar, His Holiness said during the visit, the state chief minister expressed his hope that the state would enjoy progress due to the blessings of Lord Buddha. "But I told him the state could have achieved progress a long time before if it needs only Buddha's blessing. I said the real development would only come through practical action by the concerned chief minister with the blessings of Buddha,” His Holiness said.
The members of state Vidhan Sabha are in Dharamsala to take part in the winter session of the assembly.
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4. Why Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Prize Matters to Tibet
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The Huffington Post
December 10, 2010
Kate Saunders
Communications Director for the International Campaign for Tibet
At a rally in New York on December 10 to mark Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize, a portrait of the imprisoned literary scholar and dissident painted by both a Tibetan and a Chinese artist will be unfurled, and Tibetans across the world will join Chinese people in the celebrations.
This year's Peace Prize matters in Tibet because Liu Xiaobo is among those Chinese intellectuals who link Tibet's destiny to their own -- by arguing that a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Tibet needs to involve the Dalai Lama, and is ultimately in China's interests.
At a time of wrenching social change in China, a new generation of Tibetan intellectuals, artists, writers and scholars are increasingly standing by the side of Liu Xiaobo and other Chinese dissidents. Their stories are less well-known than their Chinese counterparts, but these Tibetan writers, intellectuals and bloggers share their concerns about political repression and state control -- representing a more complex challenge to the Chinese Communist Party than before.
Kunchok Tsephel, founder of the influential Tibetan literary website, 'Butter-Lamp', and a former official in a Chinese government environmental department, is one of those individuals. He was sentenced to 15 years in prison in Tibet a month before Liu Xiaobo in Beijing was sentenced to 11 years in prison on Christmas Day last year. The 'state secrets' charges against Kunchok are believed to be related to content on his website about Tibetan culture, and possibly also to passing on news about the suppression of peaceful protests in his area.
Forty-year-old Kunchok was born into a nomadic family in Tibet, and educated at a Chinese university. He belongs to a new generation of Tibetans fluent in Chinese as well as their own language and familiar with digital technology. The views of this new generation, too young to have experienced the excesses of the Cultural Revolution nor the Chinese takeover of Tibet, are informed by an awareness of the sufferings of Chinese people and their own struggles against the state.
A common theme of their writings is the urgency for political change, with Tibetan intellectuals describing the cause of the protests not as the instigation of the 'Dalai clique' as Beijing contends, but as a result of Tibet's history since the 1950s and the shortcomings of China's Tibet policy. Liu Xiaobo has written boldly on these failings; in March 2008, his name was prominent among the original 29 signatories of a petition to the Chinese authorities calling for dialogue between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama, noting the "serious mistakes" in China's policies in Tibet, and criticizing the Chinese government's response to the protests in Tibet as lacking "a style of governing that conforms to the standards of modern civilization."
Migmar Dhundup is a tall, bookish Tibetan in his thirties who worked for an international NGO in Tibet committed to helping impoverished communities. Migmar, a quiet and reflective individual, was happiest when out in the field conducting health training or creating gardens to enable nomads to grow vegetables, and his favourite book is Ma Jian's 'Red Dust', an account by a Chinese dissident writer of his travels through Tibet. Migmar 'disappeared' in Lhasa in March, 2008, and his friends later heard that he had been sentenced to 14 years in prison, accused of passing information onto the Dalai Lama.
The Tibetan writer Woeser, who is under almost constant surveillance living in Beijing with her Chinese husband, was among the original signatories of Charter 08, a document authored by Liu Xiaobo and other Chinese intellectuals calling for reform of the political system in China. Woeser, who is a friend of Liu Xiaobo's, wrote:
Our 'fight' [today] does not signify as it did for Mao something bloodstained and violent, an armed revolution, a class struggle. Non-violence is also a struggle, a greater and more enduring fight! For each individual, this fight starts with oneself, in the present moment, in each particular detail of living. Let us begin identifying ourselves as Tibetans, for this is our duty: any effort of daily life, however small, is still a kind of struggle.
Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize also honours individuals like Woeser, Migmar Dhondup, Kunchok Tsephel, and hundreds of other Tibetans whose silencing by the state now speaks more loudly than before. Their courage in speaking truth to power is of critical importance for Tibet's future -- and China's. It has never been more true than it is this year to say that the prizes to Nobel Peace Laureates who cannot attend the ceremony are among the most important of all.
Follow Kate Saunders on Twitter: www.twitter.com/katesictibet <http://www.twitter.com/katesictibet>
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5. WikiLeaks Reveals China's View of Tibet and Taiwan
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Sing Tao Daily, News Report, Dec 09, 2010
New America Media
Chinese leaders may have different opinions about Taiwan’s economic development and political reform, but they all seem to agree on a tough stance on Tibet, according to cables from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing released by WikiLeaks.
China Times reports the cables show that Beijing accepts that the United States may meddle in Taiwan affairs, but China will never accept foreign forces interference in Tibetan affairs. According to a cable on March 28, 2009, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Chinese leaders are more emotional about Taiwan, and more calculated and strategic when it comes to Tibet.
A cable on Jan. 6, 2009 from the U.S. Embassy reveals that despite much improved China-Taiwan relations, the Taiwan issue remains one of the most challenging issues in U.S.-China relations. China Times reports that U.S. Ambassador Clark T. Randt replied with the message that the United States should continue to support Taiwan, and the way to ease tensions between China and Taiwan would be increase Taiwan's international role and reduce China's military actions toward Taiwan.
The cable also revealed that the United States needs to use a variety of diplomatic strategies to protect Taiwan from Chinese intimidation. A cable from the U.S. Embassy on Jan. 28, 2010, revealed that economic factors will remain an important issue in U.S.-China relations in 2010, and China was strongly dissatisfied with the U.S. support of the Dalai Lama and weapno sales to Taiwan, which may make China less willing to cooperate with the United States.
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6. Exiles start Walk for Tibet in Taiwan
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Deutscse Presse-Agentur
Dec 10, 2010
Taipei - The nephew of the Dalai Lama started a Walk for Tibet Friday in Taiwan to raise public awareness about China's poor human rights record in the region.
About 50 Tibetan exiles and supporters gathered in central Taipei to see Jime Norbu begin the trek, which is to end in Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan on December 23.
A dozen Tibetans are walking with Norbu while other supporters are to join him on different sections of the trek.
Along the way, they plan to show films and give talks about the lives of Tibetans under Chinese rule.
'We start the walk in Taiwan today because today is the world Human Rights Day and it is the day when the Dalai Lama received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989,' Norbu, son of the Dalai Lama's elder brother Thubten Jigme Norbu, told reporters.
'We dedicate this walk to the millions of Tibetans who have died in peaceful protests against China's occupation since 1959 and want to call on the whole world to support this year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, China's jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo,' he said.
The Walk for Tibet was launched in Indianapolis in 1995 by the US-based Tubten Jime Norbu, who died in 2008.
Since then, Tibetan exiles in the United States and other countries have staged a Walk for Tibet or Bike for Tibet every year.
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7. China, Iran jail most journalists in world, media watch group says
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Monsters and Critics.com
Dec 10, 2010
New York - A New York-based global media watch group Thursday said that 145 journalists
were currently jailed around the world because of their work - the highest number in 14 years.
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) said that Iran and China led the list, each with 34 imprisoned journalists. Together, they accounted for nearly half of the world's total.
Eritrea, Myanmar and Uzbekistan filled out the remaining roles of the five worst jailers among 28 nations currently imprisoning journalists.
'The increase in the number of journalists jailed around the world is a shocking development,' said CPJ executive director Joel Simon.
Iranian detainees range from high-profile writers such as Issa Saharkhiz, a well-known state journalist who started writing reformist columns, to Navid Mohebbi, a women's rights blogger who, at age 18, was the youngest in the CPJ study of jailed journalists.
China in 2009 had jailed 24 journalists. This year's increase to 34 included Uighur and Tibetan journalists who have covered regional unrest. Among the detainees were a Tibetan writer known as Buddha, who wrote about economic disparities between Tibet and the rest of China, and Gheyrat Niyaz, an Uighur website editor who covered ethnic violence in Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.
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8. Stop Appeasing China Now
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Jeysundhar D
World Press Review Op-Ed
December 9, 2010
The last decade has borne witness to the decline of the West coupled with the rise of the Asian giants, China and India. The concept of carrot and stick, once expertly used by the United States, has now found an able wielder in China. Chinese hard power, especially, has become a game changer for meeting the future resource demands of the country through buying and bullying dictatorships in Africa. The Middle Kingdom, with its coffers enriched by a booming trade, is capable of and willing to muscle its way through, in order to ensure that its demands are met.
In the last few years and especially since the Beijing Olympics, China's diplomatic and military assertiveness have been amply aided by its powerful economic muscle. This newfound confidence—although China was always vocal in voicing its demands—has its roots in the success of China's pressure tactics during the Beijing Olympics. While various countries protested against choosing China as the venue—keeping in mind China's role in the Darfur conflict, support for Myanmar's junta, and most important of all, the oppression of Tibetan activists—countries like France were planning a boycott of the games. China blatantly threatened these boycotters with economic consequences, and one by one, they gave in. Despite reports of restrictions placed on journalists, civil unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang, IOC President Jacques Rogge claimed that the games had been truly exceptional.
The success of these pressure tactics has convinced China of its effectiveness, and this has been reflected in several of China's moves. The aggressive show put up during the 60th Anniversary of the Foundation of the PRC was a feast to the Chinese PLA and a concealed threat to the West. It dealt a death blow to the "peaceful rise of China" rhetoric often stated by Chinese leadership in global forums. China also used its economic clout to resolve the border dispute with Russia with the latter ceding a small amount of territory. This paved the way for the completion of the ESPO oil pipeline supplying 15 million tonnes of oil per year for 20 years in exchange for a loan to Russian companies. China's arm-twisting was also visible in an effort made by the European countries to lift the arms embargo but was thwarted by the United States. The United States has, though, been unable to prevent the smuggling of technology from Pakistan to China.
Speaking of the United States, it is worth mentioning that around 60 percent of China's $2.5 trillion forex reserves are held in U.S. government and institutional bonds. Never has the United States owed so much money to any one country. This is playing a definite role in shaping U.S. China policy. This policy has seen a shift under Obama, who is trying to reconcile with China on several issues. Despite repeated mention of the issue of deliberate undervaluing of the Renminbi and human right violations in Tibet, the United States has restrained itself from lodging a formal complaint with WTO, and top diplomats rarely, if ever, mention the Tibet issue while visiting China. The U.S. stance in recent times has been one of non-intervention in China's internal matters.
Japan's case has been no different. Traditionally upfront and steady in its China policy, Japan had to bow down and give way in the recent spat over the arrest of a Chinese captain for trespassing into its waters. This has, in a twisted way, legitimized Chinese territorial claims in the East China Sea. Japan faced the classical catch 22 whereby it had to either swallow its national pride or risk losing the lifeline of its hybrid automobile industry. Japan, as in the case of all other countries that had conflicts with China, chose the former. China's efforts in blocking the Nobel Prize awarding ceremony to express its objection to the prize awarded to Liu Xiaobao went in vain. Eventually, China has mounted a diplomatic campaign to prevent countries from attending the ceremony. As a result, countries such as Russia, Cuba, Iraq and Kazakhstan have decided not to be represented at the ceremony.
These successes have boosted China's aspirations and ambitions, and it has effectively started believing more in the stick than in the carrot. In fact, China wants the whole world to feed it with carrots while it uses the stick on all of them. And until now, the powers-that-be have complied. But there is an increasing consensus among analysts that this dangerous trend needs to stop. The Cold War saw a similar posturing by the United States to exercise its will in the third world, toppling independent governments, installing puppet democracies, utter disregard to human rights if there were economic and strategic interests involved. A sense of strategic déjà vu has been felt in international circles, and the world, wearied by economic slowdowns and recessions, certainly is not ready for conflict on a scale as large as the wars in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
The success of China's pressure tactics, if allowed to continue, will snowball into even more unpalatable behavior from China and will set a dangerous precedent in the way countries resolve disputes. It is high time that the Chinese impression regarding its economic muscle being a panacea for its problems is negated. Now, who bells the cat? And how do we go about it?
The world powers, including the United States and the European Union, can start by showing full presence at the Oslo Nobel Peace Prize awarding ceremony and thwarting China's attempts to torpedo the event. The international community needs to reject the Chinese pressure, whatever be the immediate consequences, keeping in mind their long-term national security in mind. The world also needs to show China that the factory needs the market as much as the market needs the factory, or perhaps even more. This would place an effective check on China's ambitions and aggressive measures.
As China's neighbor and the other Asian giant, India needs to send a clear message to China by canvassing support for the Tibetan cause as well as for freeing Liu Xiaobao before the awards ceremony. India has already taken the first step in this regard when it did not stop the Dalai Lama from visiting Arunachal Pradesh despite repeated denouncements from China. The recent announcement by India that it would be attending the ceremony is a harbinger of times to come. Those countries that have, as of now, indicated against attending the ceremony should take India's lead in the issue. It is therefore important and imperative to send a message to China that it cannot use its bullying tactics any longer.
Jeysundhar D is a freelance political analyst and blogger from India. His blog is jeys-abode.blogspot.com <http://jeys-abode.blogspot.com> .
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9. The Chinese consumer awakens
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ALAN WHEATLEY
CTV.ca
December 10, 2010
In the Tibetan monastery town of Xiahe, Gyelyanjia is visiting for a festival and taking the opportunity to do some shopping.
He has spent 20 yuan ($3 U.S.) at Ding's electrical appliance shop on a heat-belt, which he can fill with boiling water and strap around his waist to ward off the bitter winter chill on the Himalayan plateau.
The 66-year-old grins: “I already have a television at home. But I would like a washing machine and a fridge. I hope to buy those next year.”
Timothy Geithner harbors similar hopes. The U.S. Treasury Secretary is counting on hundreds of millions of Chinese like Gyelyanjia to spend more and save less.
That way, Chinese factories would produce more for domestic consumption and less for export, helping to narrow the trade imbalances that are destabilizing the global economy.
Chinese consumption is, in fact, strong. It has grown by more than 9 per cent a year, after adjustment for inflation, over the past decade. China overtook the United States in 2009 as the world's leading automobile market. The real-estate market is on fire, swelling demand for appliances and furniture. China is No. 2 in sales of luxury goods.
There are no luxuries for sale in Xiahe, a rapidly developing town in the western province of Gansu and home to Labrang monastery, the largest outside Tibet.
Tibetans wrapped in long woolen robes, their hair falling in long plaits, crowd the broad pavement lined with shops along the main street leading to the sprawling monastery. Monks, taking a break from their prayers, chat on mobile phones on their way to the tea house or to buy a pair of handmade felt boots.
Renqing, 33, who like many Tibetans uses only one name, watches over her two-year-old daughter, sleeping in her stroller outside a shop. “Life is difficult for us. I only have enough money to feed and clothe my family.”
Still, she admits, she has a washing machine, a fridge, a television and a computer at home. And, of course, a DVD player. But it's not enough. “If there's one thing I dream of having, it's Tibetan religious art. I wish I could buy statues to put in my home.”
The Ding family are Hui minority Muslims. Mrs. Ding Yuying gestures around her store filled with freezers and televisions. “Business is up 50 per cent this year because the government has given a subsidy to farmers to buy electrical goods,” she said.
Yet appearances are deceptive, at least through the prism of economic statistics.
Spending might be sturdy in China, but investment has been off the charts. As a result, consumption was just 35.6 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2009, from 46.1 per cent a decade earlier - and that was helped by a massive government stimulus to counter the global financial crisis.
The task for China's policymakers is to lift that proportion by boosting wages, speeding up urbanization and building a social safety net so people do not need to save so much for a rainy day.
“Consumption will be the story of the next five to 10 years, and because we're talking about a fifth of humanity, it will have a huge impact on global business,” said David Gosset, director of the Euro-China Center for International and Business Relations at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.
Still, he doubted China's consumption share would reach the roughly 60 per cent rate of the European Union, let alone the 70 per cent rate of the United States. “The Chinese will never consume as we do in the West, especially in the U.S.”
The opportunities for retailers are nevertheless mouth-watering, if they can adapt their sales methods to thousands of fast-growing towns across China where budgets and tastes are a world apart from the bright lights of Beijing and Shanghai.
Patrick Kung, Greater China chairman for Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV, sees huge growth in the coming decade in what he calls China's “emerging markets” - lower-tier towns and the countryside - while coastal cities will gradually become saturated.
“A smart company will be proactively investing and looking how to tap those markets,” Mr. Kung told a conference organized by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing.
Scenting the potential profits, many multinationals are doing exactly that.
General Motors, the biggest overseas automaker in China, is busy rolling out affordable models aimed at smaller cities that it says could account for 60 per cent of its business within five years.
“Those big coastal cities are rapidly becoming less than a quarter of our business and the real growth is in what we call Tier-3, Tier-4 cities,” Terry Johnsson, vice president of GM's China operations, told Reuters.
German sports goods company Adidas AG plans to open more than 2,500 stores in smaller Chinese cities by 2015.
Foreign and domestic retailers in sectors from hotels to instant noodles are reporting surging sales from lower-tier cities, which are benefiting from a wave of corporate investment and government measures to support consumption, according to Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities and commodities at J.P. Morgan.
“If you're not doing well, it's because you have an execution problem,” she said. “I think in the next 3-5 years we're going to see the interior really taking over as a major growth driver for China's overall economy.”
The logic behind aggressive expansion plans sounds compelling. But they will pay off only if the Communist Party is prepared to overturn China's growth model. That means taking on vested interests that thrive financially and politically from the way the economy is run, from well-connected property developers and their friends in local government, to the Party bosses of banks and big firms who wield immense power in their industries.
China has enjoyed three decades of double-digit GDP growth by favoring investment over consumption and export-orientated manufacturing over domestic services.
Heavy industry has benefited from a seemingly bottomless pit of cheap labor; cheap and plentiful credit supplied by state-owned banks; cheap land provided by local authorities keen to generate jobs and taxes; cheap utility tariffs; and, last but not least in Washington's eyes, a cheap exchange rate.
All these factors amount, economists say, to a tax on consumers and a subsidy for producers. Unable to sell all they make at home because incomes are suppressed, manufacturers have to export the surplus - to the chagrin of critics such as Mr. Geithner.
One statistic dramatizes this imbalance at the heart of China's economy: the share of national wealth going to workers as wage income plummeted to 39.7 per cent in 2007 from 53.1 per cent in 1998.
Seen in that light, it is no wonder consumption has contracted as a share of GDP. But could China be on the cusp of change?
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yearbook shows wages have surged and accounted for 46.6 per cent of GDP in 2009. The bureau gave no explanation for the rise, nor has it published figures for 2008.
Louis Kuijs, an economist at the World Bank in Beijing, said he would not be surprised if wages and consumption were bottoming out as a proportion of GDP.
But he added: “It is a bit too early to say that we are obviously in a new era where we will see a quick reversal of these trends. We don't have enough evidence either on the data side or the policy side.”
China's transformation from an impoverished backwater to the world's second-largest economy has created an army of super wealthy who seized on the market reforms that Deng Xiaoping launched in the late 1970s. “To get rich is glorious,” Deng Xiaoping is said to have declared, sounding a rallying cry to astute private entrepreneurs and unscrupulous strippers of state assets alike.
Now the rank and file is beginning to catch-up a little bit. Ting Lu with Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that nationwide wage growth this year will be about 14 per cent. “
It doesn't feel that way, though, to Wang Yanjun, a 35-year-old migrant worker from a village in the central province of Henan who packed in his job as a carpenter on construction sites and moved to Beijing after the 2008 Olympics. He came with his wife but, typical of millions of migrants, they left their children, a daughter, 14, and a son, 8, back home.
“It was a really tough job and I quit, hoping to make more money in Beijing. But it turned out it's not easy to make money here either,” Mr. Wang said.
On a chilly Sunday night on a street corner near the biggest gold shop in Beijing, Mr. Wang was selling barbecued meat, fish and vegetables for between 0.5 yuan and 3 yuan apiece from an unlicensed flatbed tricycle.
Wearing a black jacket smeared in cooking oil that he bought off the street for 80 yuan, Mr. Wang says he and his wife can clear 80 yuan a day, or 100 yuan in summer.
They pay 550 yuan a month for a small room and share a bathroom with another dozen migrant families. Mr. Wang says he has not set foot in a department store or a fast-food restaurant since he came to Beijing.
Asked whether they went to the cinema or to a park now and then, Mr. Wang looked at his wife before answering: “We don't go to places where you have to pay get in.”
The official statistics, though, suggest China's 200 million-plus migrant workers like Mr. Wang have seen their earnings rise 18.7 percent in the first nine months.
This partly reflects a catch-up after a year of pay restraint in export factories in 2009, when China was coping with the global financial crisis. But demographic factors suggest wage inflation is here to stay.
China is not running short of labor.
Apart from the unemployed and underemployed in its cities, China could grow its food much more efficiently. Fang Cai, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, estimated in 2008 that China had 107 million surplus rural laborers or 22 per cent of the work force in the countryside.
However, more than half of those surplus workers are over 40 - hardly prime candidates to stitch shirts or snap together an MP3 player. Indeed, China is already starting to run short at the margin of the nimble young workers prized by factories and construction sites.
Lu with BoA Merrill Lynch estimates the 20-45 age group will shrivel from 39.5 per cent of the population this year to 34.2 per cent in 2020.
“Massive migration from rural to urban areas over the past decade helped cover the manufacturing labor shrinkage problem, but it is widely believed that rural surplus labor younger than 40 is already very limited.”
Cities in the southern manufacturing heartlands of Guangdong have responded to the shortages by raising minimum wages by more than 20 per cent this year. Foxconn, which employs 800,000 workers and makes electronic gadgets for companies including Apple and, trumped that with a 30 percent pay rise.
Victor Fung, chairman of Li & Fung, the world's largest sourcing company, went so far as to say, in an interview with the Financial Times, that Foxconn had sounded the death knell for the cheap-labor model that propelled China to become “the workshop of the world.”
Worried about China's growing income inequality, the government is happy to see the laws of supply and demand push up wages. Early this year, it turned a blind eye to a rash of strikes at foreign-owned plants in support of higher pay.
Boosting wages will be a central plank of China's five-year plan for 2011-2016, officials say. But would putting more money in people's wallets suffice to spur spending?
“It is tempting to think that high wage increases in the coming years will raise the role of household income and consumption. However, I do not think rebalancing will happen by itself -- it will require significant policy adjustment,” said Mr. Kuijs, the World Bank economist.
Take savings.
China is slowly building up a pension system, mainly for urban workers, and has made compulsory education free, in principle if not always in practice. The government is also extending health insurance and basic health care to fill a vacuum left when the “iron rice bowl” of cradle-to-grave social security for industrial workers was dismantled in the 1990s.
But many Chinese, especially older people and peasant farmers, still salt away as much money as they can.
“It's true that people don't really need to save as much nowadays because there are certain provisions. But it's a habit,” said Zhang Weiguo, 48, a former soldier who is now a driver. “You can't get the older generation to change their habits.”
But the government could try to change attitudes by spending more on behalf of its citizens instead of making them dig into their own pockets. China's budgeting instincts are deeply conservative. Outlays on education, for example, fall well short of international standards.
Increasing transfer payments to consumers and reducing their tax burden could be financed by requiring state-owned enterprises to increase the paltry dividends they hand over to the central government.
The powerful Party bosses that run big state-owned firms and banks have so far blocked efforts at redistribution, hoarding their cash instead. With government savings also on the rise - tax revenues are up 22 per cent this year - China's gross national savings rate has soared to well over 50 per cent of GDP.
China is awash with cash, but it is in the wrong places, an important reason why consumption growth has lagged growth in incomes for most of the last decade.
“There is no sign yet of the falling household savings rate that many believe is necessary to rebalance the economy,” said Mark Williams with Capital Economics, a London consultancy.
Mr. Zhang lives in Yanqing, a nondescript town of 100,000 people about 80 kilometres northwest of Beijing, just beyond the Badaling section of the Great Wall popular with visitors to the capital.
Yanqing is the sort of middling Tier-5 town seen all across China. The buildings are forgettable, fronted with white-glazed tiles and blue tinted-glass windows. Lunch of freshly made steamed buns and black bean soup costs 17 yuan for two. The biggest draw in town is the local KFC, a throng of boisterous, plump children testifying to urban China's ready embrace of Western fast food.
What does set Yanqing apart is that it has a Wal-Mart. The world's largest retailer opened shop here in 2009 hoping to catch the wave of the consumer boom beyond China's big cities.
The store, set in a shopping mall, was busy but not humming one recent Saturday morning. Ruddy-faced country folk rubbed shoulders with better-dressed brethren, whom retail specialists might categorize as “aspirational shoppers.”
“The prices are slightly higher, but the quality is better,” one man said approvingly. Pierre Cardin down jackets were marked down to 700 yuan but were finding no takers. “The most people can afford around here is 500,” a saleswoman said.
The proliferation of retail outlets in Yanqing illustrates another salient feature of the Chinese economy: the fierce competition for consumer dollars. Across China, multinational retailers of sporting goods such as Adidas and Nike, for example, face an array of local rivals including LI-NING, Erke, 361, ANTA and X-step.
“These are not small players. They're big boys. They're all big brands and they're all over,” said Paul French with retail consultants Access Asia in Shanghai. “A rising tide is not lifting all boats - it's just very competitive, fiercely competitive.”
Chinese retailers with big sales forces were often able to respond more nimbly to capitalize on fast-changing markets, added Franc Kaiser with InterChina Consulting, another Shanghai-based consultancy.
“The guys who react fastest to the opportunities are usually the Chinese. If they see a space in the market, boom, they're there!” Mr. Kaiser said. “These competitors can come from nowhere, but within three or four years they can roll up the market.”
For all its ordinariness, Yanqing is the sort of place that is destined to flourish if the Party succeeds with another of the fundamental reforms it has proclaimed - allowing migrant workers from the countryside to settle with their families in smaller towns.
Migrants with a rural certificate of residence, or “hukou,” who move to a city to work, find it hard to get access to health, education and welfare services.
“I can't afford to bring my two kids to Beijing, and no school in Beijing will admit them in any case,” said Mr. Wang, the carpenter-turned-food peddler from Henan.
If migrant workers like him could put down roots without facing such discrimination, they would in theory save less and spend more on everything from subways to noodle shops - labor-intensive services that do not add to the trade surplus.
As it is, Mr. Wang said he and his wife still manage to save 20,000 yuan a year. “If I spend the money, who would pay the school fees for my kids and who would take care of us when we become ill?” But once he's saved 100,000 yuan, Mr. Wang wants to go back home and start a business.
Thousands of young graduates from out of town, dubbed “ant tribes,” also find the streets of Beijing are not paved with gold. They live in cramped, often squalid conditions on the outskirts of the capital unable to get a foot on the property ladder or find a job that matches their qualifications.
In downtown Beijing, rag-and-bone men rummage through garbage bins. In alleys a few minutes walk from the capital's plushest hotels, indoor plumbing is the exception rather than the rule.
Still, the importance of cities for the consumption story cannot be overstated. They account for 76 per cent of China's household consumption even though the urbanization rate is only 47 per cent - about the same as the United States a century ago. Incomes in towns are three times higher than in the countryside.
With the urbanization rate not likely to peak until 2030 at around 68 per cent, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, towns thus have the potential to be a big driver of growth led by consumption and services, not investment and industry.
Consultants McKinsey & Co expects China by 2025 to have 221 cities with more than one million inhabitants, compared with 35 in Europe today. Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan, China's most populous province, will have a bigger economy than Sweden, Hong Kong or Israel by 2020, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
To accommodate the ever-swelling ranks of urban dwellers, the Communist Party is embarking on another huge policy shift.
It is ramping up construction of subsidized housing for families on low incomes who cannot afford stratospheric market prices.
Ms. Ulrich at J.P. Morgan expects China to break ground on six million such apartments every year during the next five-year plan.
The boost to consumption that will come from urbanization and granting more migrants permanent residency has every chance of being reinforced by China's demographic profile.
With the working-age population set to shrink from around 2015, China is destined to grow old rapidly. As it does, retirees will draw down their savings - as has happened in Japan.
At the same time, a younger generation of well-educated Chinese who never knew the privations their parents and grandparents suffered have fewer inhibitions about spending.
Meet Hou Jiexin.
Ms. Hou, a 27-year-old finance manager originally from southwest China, earns about 200,000 yuan ($30,000) a year and saves barely a penny.
“My parents are saving for me back in Chongqing for when I get married, but I'm not saving,” said Ms. Hou, a Burberry scarf around her neck and a Swatch on her wrist as she sipped a latte in the posh Oriental Plaza shopping mall in downtown Beijing.
Ms. Hou belongs to what is called in China the “Moonlight Clan,” young adults who spend their entire monthly salary, earned over the course of a lunar cycle.
In addition to a 4,500 yuan monthly mortgage payment for her 45-square-meter studio apartment, she spends her money on Estee Lauder and Biotherm cosmetics, vacations, restaurants - and classes to prepare for admission to an MBA course.
Confident that her salary will keep rising nicely, she is planning a trip to Europe and fancies splashing out as much as 40,000 yuan on a Chanel bag.
“My mom says I already have way too many shoes and bags,” Ms. Hou said. “What I spend in Beijing is about two or three times what my parents spend between them in Chongqing.”
Her mobile phone is a Nokia 7100, which she bought in the summer after watching a movie about an office lady who got promoted to be a senior manager in an international company.
“I noticed the phone on the big screen, and I bought it because it looked very nice,” Ms. Hou said. “But yes, I know very well that it's time to get an iPhone 4.”
Put all the pieces of the policy and demographic jigsaw together and the prospects are for a golden age of consumption in China, according to Morgan Stanley.
China's consumption, now just 20 per cent that of America's, will reach two-thirds of the U.S. level by 2020, the bank projects. When it comes to incremental consumption in dollar terms, China overtook the United States back in 2008.
Goldman Sachs is equally bullish. It forecasts that Chinese retail sales, now worth $1.8-trillion a year, will leap to $5-6-trillion by 2020. “That's what this decade is all about,” said Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
It will be a long time before the Moonlight Clan makes it to Xiahe. Life there ticks over more modestly than in Beijing.
In the Sunshine General Goods Store, a middle-aged Tibetan nomad inspects a blue plastic bucket and then a pink one. She turns each one upside down and then shows the blue one to her husband. He grunts at the shopkeeper, who asks for 18 yuan. They settle on 15 yuan, with a lid thrown in.
“They've come in from the pastures to worship and to shop. They'll use it to hold yak milk,” the shopkeeper explains.
Down the street, Wangchen, another nomad, is buying thick cloth that looks like a polyester blanket for 15 yuan a metre. It will make her first new dress in five years.
She and her husband are shopping with a friend, a huge black and white sacred Tibetan bead around his neck to ward off evil.
“Our life doesn't get any better. I have three children to raise and it's very costly. I can't spend my money on luxuries,” the 33-year-old nomad says. He wears a rough jacket and leather trousers tucked into heavy boots.
Raising the living standards of nomads like Wangchen and of migrants like Wang is the all-consuming priority of the Communist Party. With close to 300 million people still scraping by on less than $2 a day, the task is daunting. Yet an even larger number of Chinese has been lifted out of poverty in the past 30 years. Their lifestyle is modest but it is incalculably better than it was.
Drolma picks through windcheaters and plastic trousers piled high on a Xiahe street stall and hands over 60 yuan for a khaki jacket.
“Of course I can afford to go shopping. We are doing very well these days. We raise yaks.” She holds up a yellow box with a picture of Hong Kong film idol Jackie Chan on the front. “I've bought a DVD player. It cost me 700 yuan, but I can manage that.”
Her husband drives up on his motorcycle and the couple disappears into a shop selling the gorgeous gold brocades that Tibetans like to adorn their hats. He breaks into a smile and tries on a new jacket.
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