Met. Office Crying 'Woolf!' ?
Duncan Heenan
over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers. Not only in general
forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot, cold, windy etc as they
say, but also in shipping and inshore forecasts. A number of times over the
last year I have not sailed because of warnings of Gales or F6s and above
which have not materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day out.
I am now beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one day
the forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout 'We
told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the background
advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than the most likely,
weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism. (a la M. Fish -'There
won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?
cupra
Well if you are listening to the road traffic reports as I am at the moment in Northants, I'd probably say that a severe warning was not enough for most of the 'drivers' out there - reports of multiple accidents and closures and that's WITH gritted roads!
--
cupra (remove nospam please to mail)
pete_w
would happen if we had a big one!
Pete W
" cupra" <knospam2...@f2s.com> wrote in message
news:bv8oft$p1bm3$1...@ID-190177.news.uni-berlin.de...
Pete Styles
cupra wrote:
I was similarly sceptical until about 15 minutes ago. Here on Oxford its been clear blue skies for most of the day. Suddenly started to blow up about half an hour ago, now thunder and extremely substantial snow falling. I'm probably going to put my scepticism
on hold just for the moment!
Cheers,
P.
jas
"martin" <m...@privacy.net> wrote in message
news:tksf1018frala96o8...@4ax.com...
> On Wed, 28 Jan 2004 16:46:41 -0000, <Pete W> wrote:
>
> >Typical of this country, unable to cope with a tiny crisis, god knows
what
> >would happen if we had a big one!
>
> --
> Martin
its not.
Ishmael Sayle III
about the possibilities of severe weather, but a lot of this is hype whipped
up by the media rather than serious forecasting from Met O.
I can confirm that this newsgroup certainly was read when I was shackled to
the Met O to earn my (very)meagre crust.
ISIII
"Duncan Heenan" <duncanhee...@tiscali.co.uk> wrote in message
news:4017e442$1...@mk-nntp-2.news.uk.tiscali.com...
Duncan Heenan
> On Wed, 28 Jan 2004 18:12:38 +0100, martin <m...@privacy.net> wrote:
> >http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/tempusfugit/marine/gmdss.htm .
> >
> >There's also Frank Singleton http://www.franksingleton.clara.net
> >
> >I think both are retired now.
> >
> >If you keep careful records of forecast against the actual weather and
> >demonstrate a bias somebody in the Met Office will listen to you.
> >I suspect you are wrong and that you are noticing local differences
> >rather than general ones, after all the forecasts are for large areas.
> >In the West of the Netherlands, where I am located, force 7 winds,
> >thunderstorms and snow were forecast for today. We had a near gale a
> >thunder storm and torrential rain, but no snow, not even frost. Other
> >parts of the West of the Netherlands have had snow.
> >
> >You can of course download the synoptic s and make your own forecasts.
> >There's plenty of weather info on internet.
>
> I looked out of the window after posting that and found that there
> are now several inches of snow here.
> --
> Martin
Nothing here on the Isle of Wight yet - but we always have good weather!
Tony of Judicious
My impression of sailing in NW Scotland is that the main shipping forecasts
are reasonable, but of course they cover a large area. Weather can be quite
local in this region.
The inshore forecast (Malin Hd to Cape Wrath and 12 miles offshore) does seem
to be a bit pessimistic.
I listen to both, also the land forecasts, sketch a synoptic chart and make up
my mind as to what to do.
If I am near Ireland the forecasts from MetEirean seem to be a bit more
realistic, and they are updated every 6 hours.
spu02je
a hurricane as the disturbance did not originate in the tropics. Hurricane
force winds yes were observed ie F12.
The Met office forecasts have grown in accuracy in the last decades. A one
day forecast given in 1960 is now as accurate as a 3day forecast in 2004.
Inshore water forecasts are diccicult to judge especially in anticyclonic
conditions when sea breezes form etc. Frontal features do however
complicate the matter but forecasts are improving!!!
James Eberlein
Department of Meteorology
University of Reading
PsiMan
"spu02je" <spu...@rdg.ac.uk> wrote in message
news:bvasho$6vh$1...@vins1.reading.ac.uk...
You sound just like my Fiancee, you meterologists are all the same!!
Cheers
Simon
Duncan Heenan
I didn't say they were't accurate, more that the interpretation was always
on the black side and alarmist. In any forecast there is a range of
probablilities, and I still think that when popularising their forecasts for
mass consumption they are going to the poorest end of probabaility rather
than the most probabale part of the range.
J Bard
hearing "10 to 15 knots" while my sails are listless ...
"Duncan Heenan" <duncanhee...@tiscali.co.uk> wrote in message
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