Citation
Northern sea ice growth a fluke, not end of climate change: researcher
Thu Apr 1, 4:14 PM
By Bob Weber, The Canadian Press
Arctic sea ice is nearly back to average global levels for the first
time in at least a decade after years of spectacular declines.
The surprise growth at a time of year when ice is normally melting has
triggered a blizzard of I-told-you-sos among online climate change skeptics.
But the man whose data is behind the furor says a few weeks of cold
weather in one part of the Arctic - not the end of climate change - has
skewed the numbers.
"It is not the end of global warming," said Mark Serreze of the National
Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., which publishes monthly
sea-ice updates on its website.
On Wednesday, the center posted a new graph showing that the extent of
ice-covered Arctic Ocean has nearly returned to the 1979-2000 average.
The graph was a significant surprise.
Data from the last eight years shows that September sea ice was 22 per
cent below that 20-year average. And until the beginning of March, this
year's sea ice was on pace to match 2007's record low.
What happened?
It's called freaky Arctic weather.
"All of the action is in the Bering Sea," Serreze said.
"For the past several weeks, we've been under a rather unusual weather
pattern, a cold pattern, that's given us this late spurt in ice growth
in the Bering Sea. If you look at the rest of the Arctic Ocean proper,
it is very warm."
The Bering Sea, between Alaska and Russia, is caught between two
low-pressure systems.
"This is weather," said Serreze. "Don't conflate this with climate."
Serreze notes that on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, ice is low.
However, online climate change skeptics have seized on the data as proof
that global warming is a hoax. By Thursday morning, hundreds of Twitter
posts were referencing Serreze's graph - many linking to a Sydney
Morning Herald blog that displays the graph without explanation or context.
"An inconvenient fact," reads one post. "Arctic sea ice back to normal -
oops."
Another asked: "Will the hysterical eco-nuts be called out? NO!"
Right-wing think-tanks such as the U.S.-based Heartland Institute had
stories on the graph, but without comment from Serreze. Other online
articles quoted climate skeptics as if they were the authors of the
research.
Even those who accept current climate change theories were fretting.
"Is this another PR problem for global warming activists?" worried one
online environmental newspaper.
"Everyone's on this now," sighed Serreze. "What you're seeing now from
the usual suspects is that it's the end of global warming, and we don't
see it that way."
Serreze points out that the satellite data his graph is based on offers
no information on ice thickness. He suggests that most of the recent ice
in the Bering Sea is likely to be very thin and won't last.
"Once the winds change, temperatures change, we'll probably lose it
pretty quickly."
Serreze said the more important figure is sea-ice minimum, but that
won't be evident until the end of the Arctic summer.
Fin de citation.
Non seulement les gens sont méchants envers les cultes hégémoniques,
mais en plus les glaces aussi sont méchantes !
Tss tss !
--
Je suis las d'assurer un service public d'éducation, qui me vaut tant
de coups de surin par les voyous du Net.
http://jacques.lavau.perso.sfr.fr/Quantique_pour_les_nuls.html
http://quantic.deonto-ethics.org
> http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100401/science/
Bien que l'information soit antérieure et avérée, tu devrais éviter de
citer un article du 1er avril.
il ne faut pas en rester à la seule mer de Behring .. mais voir que depuis
plusieurs années la mer de Kara tendait à retrouver son niveau moyen
d'englacement, et l'a retrouvé et dépassé cette année et que depuis deux ans
l'amélioration de cette donnée sur la mer de Barentz est certaine. En ce qui
concerne la mer de Behring et contrairement à une idée reçue son
développement depuis trois ou quatre ans est exceptionnel... car moins
d'émissions volcaniques côté aléoutiennes/alaska alors que le côté
Kamtchatka reste très actif... voir lois de Raoult ....et vents dominants...
--
Lucien COSTE
> Non seulement les gens sont méchants envers les cultes hégémoniques,
> mais en plus les glaces aussi sont méchantes !
Un petit tour par là avec environ 10h00 de video explicatives synthétisant
le travail de la 4ème année polaire internationale.
Ce sera beaucoup plus formateur pour le forum.
http://www.college-de-france.fr:80/default/EN/all/evo_cli/annee_20082009.htm
Merci pour lui merci pour eux.
--
Zork
Le Ruisseau à Bard et Delaygue :
http://leruisseau.iguane.org/spip.php?article1289 par Stéphane Foucart
Et bien d'autres dans la grande presse, Sylvestre Huet :
http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/bard-versus-courtillot-1.pdf.
Ne pas oublier les diatribes de "raypierre" = R. Pierrehumbert :
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/11/les-chevaliers-de-lordre-de-la-terre-plate-part-i-allgre-and-courtillot/langswitch_lang/fr/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/les-chevaliers-de-l%E2%80%99ordre-de-la-terre-plate-part-ii-courtillots-geomagnetic-excursion/langswitch_lang/fr/
Après toutes ces ordures déversées, j'avoue ne pas être volontaire pour
me cogner dix heures de vidéo, dirigées par ce Bard :
http://www.college-de-france.fr/default/EN/all/evo_cli/annee_20082009.htm.
Je veux de l'écrit.
Je n'ai pas oublié les fraudes dans la présentation du TD par Delaygue :
http://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/planetterre/XML/db/planetterre/metadata/LOM-series-temporelles1.xml
déjà détaillées.
--
http://deonto-ethics.org/impostures/index.php/board,30.0.html
http://deonto-ethics.org/impostures/index.php/board,37.0.html
http://deonto-ethics.org/impostures/index.php/board,35.0.html
Chronique d'un assassinat annoncé.