回复: {金桥分舵} 挺有意思的小文章
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http://article.yeeyan.org/view/263699/229918
Leaders: Fast food for thought; The Big Mac index Anonymous. The Economist. London: Jul 30, 2011. Vol. 400, Iss. 8744; pg. 12
Part 1: What do hamburgers, lipstick and men's underwear have in common? The joys of unusual economic indicators. It is nearly 25 years since The Economist cooked up the Big Mac index. We devised it in September 1986 as a fun way to explain "purchasing-power parity（平价）", by comparing the prices of hamburgers in different countries. But burgernomics has since provided serious food for thought. Some economists think the Big Mac index has been surprisingly accurate in predicting long-run movements in exchange rates. It has also provided a few hot tips(最新内部消息) (and some half-baked （半生不熟的））ones) for investors. When the euro was launched in 1999, almost everybody thought it would immediately rise against the dollar. But the Big Mac index suggested that the euro was already overvalued. Soros Fund Management, a prominent hedge fund（套利基金）, later told us that it the Big Mac index said sell, but resisted the temptation诱惑 to do so. It was disappointed when the euro promptly fell in value. Today, our burger barometer晴雨表 suggests that the euro is again overvalued against the other main currencies, and it highlights强调 the euro area's internal problems, showing that Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain have lost competitiveness relative to Germany. Burgernomics is also a useful check on whether governments are understating 有意识的轻描淡写inflation. It supports claims that Argentina has been misstated谎报 their economic earnings: over the past decade, Big Mac prices there have, on average, risen by well over ten percentage points more each year than the official consumer-price index CPI--a far bigger gap than in any other country. But depending on burgernomics can be unhealthy. American politicians cite the Big Mac index as proof that the yuan is massively undervalued. It is true that burgers are cheap in China, but so they should be in all emerging economies新兴经济, because wages are much lower. If the index is adjusted for GDP per person, it shows that the yuan is now close to its fair value against the dollar. Alternative currency benchmarks替代货币的基准 have been proposed, based on the prices of iPods, IKEA bookshelves, Starbucks lattes and even The Economist itself. None really cuts the mustard符合要求. Studies suggest that the Big Mac index works as well as the purchasing-power-parity rates calculated by more sophisticated尖端的 methods. Yet whereas those fancier 空想的，特别的techniques require researchers to gather thousands of prices in each country and take two years to produce, the Big Mac index relies on a single product, so the results are almost instant. A general problem with official economic statistics is that they are published only after a lag 滞后and are subject to big revisions修正. This explains the popularity of strange, but quicker indicators, such as the crane index (the number of construction cranes you can see from a given point in a city), the lipstick index (when things get tough women buy lipsticks instead of dresses) and our own R-word index, which gives early warning of recessions暴跌 by counting newspaper stories which mention the R-word. When Alan Greenspan was chairman of the Federal Reserve联邦储蓄, he monitored监控 several unusual measures. One favorite measure, supposedly, was the sales of men's underwear, which are usually pretty constant, but drop in recessions when men replace them less often. The Bank of England does not count men's underpants. Instead, the Bank of England tracks data on Internet searches for market indicating terms. It has, for example, found that the trend in searches for "real estate agents房产中介" can be a predictor of house prices. It is time for another unorthodox measure. A more modern (or just lazier) outfit these days, The Economist is giving "crowdsourcing" a try. What international indicator, edible or otherwise, could usefully be served with Big MacCurrencies?
PART 2: THE Economist’s Big Mac index is a fun guide to whether currencies are at their “correct” level. It is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), the notion 概念that in the long run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalize the prices of a similar basket of goods and services around the world. At market exchange rates, a burger is 44% cheaper in China than in America. In other words, the raw Big Mac index suggests that the yuan is 44% undervalued against the dollar. But we have long warned that cheap burgers in China do not prove that the yuan is massively undervalued. Average prices should be lower in poor countries than in rich ones because labor costs are lower. The chart图表 shows a strong positive relationship between the dollar price of a Big Mac and GDP per person. PPP signals预示 where exchange rates should move in the long run. To estimate 估计the current fair value 现行公允值of a currency we use the “line of best fit” between Big Mac prices and GDP per person. The difference between the price predicted for each country, given its average income, and its actual price offers a better guide to currency under- and overvaluation than the “raw” index. The beefed-up index suggests that the Brazilian real is the most overvalued currency in the world; the euro is also significantly overvalued. But the yuan now appears to be close to its fair value against the dollar—something for American politicians to chew over. Definition: In economics, purchasing power parity (PPP) is a condition between countries where an amount of money has the same purchasing power in different countries.
第一部分：
汉堡包，口红和男内裤有何相同之处？在于另类经济指数的乐趣。
从《经济学人》发明“巨无霸指数”以来，已经过去了将近25年。我们在1986年9月份发明了这一指数，通过比较在不同国家汉堡包的价格差异来解释“购买力平价”概念。然而汉堡包经济学从那时起已然成为供养思考的真格食品。一些经济学家认为“巨无霸指数”在预测长期汇率变动中已变得一如既往地惊人准确。该指数也已为投资者提供了些许最新的内部消息（也有不少是半吊子内部消息）。
当欧元在1999年启动时，几乎所有人都认为它会立刻崛起对抗美元。但“巨无霸指数”则表明欧元已经被高估。卓越的对冲基金公司索罗斯基金管理公司之后告诉我们，“巨无霸指数”指示它卖出，但它还是忍住了诱惑而没去卖出。该公司在欧元贬值之后感到失望。
时至今日，我们的“汉堡晴雨表”提示，欧元又一次相对于其他货币被高估了，该指数还强调了欧元区永久性的问题，显示出希腊、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙已经丧失了相对于德国的竞争力。
汉堡包经济学还是有效检查政府是否刻意淡化通货膨胀的手段。它支持了阿根廷一直在谎报经济收入的言论：过去十年，“巨无霸指数”每年平均增长了10多个百分点，多于每年官方公布的消费者价格指数CPI——两者之间的差距比在其他任何国家都大很多。
然而，依靠汉堡包经济学也会有害处。美国的政治家们宣称“巨无霸指数”是中国人民币被严重低估的证据。在中国汉堡包的确便宜，但在新兴经济国家汉堡包就是便宜，因为工资很低。如果该指数依照人均GDP加以调整，就会显示人民币现今相对于美元来说接近其公允价值。
替代性的货币基准已经被提出来了，基于的是iPod、宜家书架、星巴克拿铁咖啡，甚至是《经济学人》杂志本身。可没有一个是符合要求的。
有研究建议，“巨无霸指数”和购买力平价率都应运用更加尖端的方法来计算。然而，那些空想出来的计算技术要求研究者在每个国家搜集成千上万种商品价格并且耗费两年的时间来得出结果，“巨无霸指数”只依赖于单个产品，所以其结果几乎是即时性的。
官方统计数据的通病是它们都滞后一段时间才出版而且受到很大的修正。这就解释了那些奇异的但更加跟得上变化的指数为何流行，比如“起重机指数”（一个城市中某指定地点你能看到的建设起重机的数量），“口红指数”（当生活变得艰难，女人倾向买口红而非衣服），还有我们的“R开头单词指数”，它通过统计提到R开头单词的新闻报道的数量，给我们暴跌的早期警报。
艾伦格林斯潘担任美联储主席时，他监控了一些另类的测量值。据猜测一个他最喜欢的测量值是男内裤的销售额，这些销售额常常是很具有连续性的，但会在萧条时下降，那时男人们都不经常换内裤。
英格兰银行是不会去统计男内裤的。取而代之，英格兰银行则盯着市场指示性商品在互联网上的搜索数量的数据。比如该银行已经发现了一个趋势即“房产中介”的搜索数量能作为房屋价格的一种预测。
这是一个非正统测量的时代。《经济学人》正想试试“网络众包”，这是一个更加现代（或更加懒惰）的工具。哪一种指数、食品或其它东西，可以有用地服务于“巨无霸货币”呢？
第二部分：
《经济学人》的“巨无霸指数”是判断货币是否在“正确”的价值水平上的一个有趣的指南。它建立在购买力平价（PPP）的理论上，这个概念即：在长期上汇率的变动应该与全世界相似的一篮子商品和服务的价格变动相一致。
在市场汇率中，一个汉堡在中国比在美国便宜44%。换句话说，原始的“巨无霸指数”表明中国人民币相对于美元价值要低44%。
但是，我们已很久以来就在警告，便宜的汉堡并不能证明人民币价值被严重低估。平均价格水品在穷国比在富国要更低，因为劳动力成本在穷国更低。以下的图表显示一个巨无霸汉堡的美元价格与人均GDP的强正相关系。
购买力平价（PPP）预示着汇率在长期中会向何处变动。要估计一种货币的现行公允值，我们要用巨无霸汉堡的价格和人均GDP之间的“最佳匹配曲线”。两者在价格上的差异给各个国家做了预测，给出了每个国家的平均收入，另外其实际价格也提供了一个对货币的低估还是高估都比用这个“原始”指数更好的指南。
“牛肉价格上升指数”指出巴西货币雷亚尔是世界上价值最被高估的货币；欧元也被大大高估。但人民币现今却表现得与美元相比更加接近其公允价值——这要给美国的政治家们好好思考了。
定义：
在经济学中，购买力平价（PPP）是指两个不同国家之间一定数量的金钱有着相同的购买力的情况。
Ryan Li (Qi Li) | Design Engineer
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