F on Friday, 31 May 2013

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

What will have to be a VERY interesting day ~ last day of the month,
last day before the monthly sales report, and starting with the DJIA
futures DOWN 82 pts and the S&P DOWN 8.25 pts.

Must admit that regardless of the general market conditions, after a
run-up like we have seen recently, I would have sold our trading
overload positions (not our core F holdings) yesterday or today.
Unfortunately, it seems (and I have not confirmed this by looking
back) that F has a nasty habit of falling off after the sales reports
or quarterly earnings reports come out.

That it NOT the case this time. Our analysis is that F will run on UP
after the sales report is released Monday. For the first time in
quite a while, my wife, the CPA, is actually more bullish that I am.
Her position is that F could actually reach the "recent time high" of
$18.34.

I am not that optimistic, but I must agree that I see just it as too
likely that F's amazing strengths will be more fully recognized. In
other words, I see it as very likely that F's current PE of 10.77 will
mover UP significantly. I find it amazing that F's PE remains lower
that GM's (11.93).

I do not expect it to even begin to approach the PE shown by TM or
HMC, but perhaps we could see F closer to Nissan's PE of 13.86.

Not a big change? Perhaps not, but that would imply that the price of
a share of F common would be approximately $20.51!

As one evaluates the position of F not just in North America, but also
in China and, increasingly, in Europe from both a structural basis but
also in product and market share, the case seems overwhelming.

More importantly, I fully expect the sales numbers reported Monday by
GM and Ford will make the change really evident.

Now, here is a nice little piece that made my day a bit brighter.

----
Ford Motor Company : Ford Hybrid Vehicle Sales Break Full-Year Record
in First Five Months of 2013
05/31/2013| 12:05am US/Eastern
DEARBORN, Mich., May 31, 2013 /PRNewswire/
-- Ford surpassed its previous full-year hybrid sales record set
in 2010 of
35,496 vehicles in just the first five months of 2013
-- Ford is projected to sell approximately 37,000 hybrid vehicles
through
May, for around a 375 percent increase over the same period
last year
-- Ford Fusion Hybrid is projected to deliver its best May sales
ever; Ford
Fusion Energi is also projected to achieve its best sales
month since
its introduction in February
-- Ford C-MAX Hybrid and Ford Fusion Hybrid continue to draw new
customers
to the Ford brand, with conquest rates at 64 percent and 67
percent,
respectively; Toyota is the top competitive conquest brand

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) bested its previous full-year hybrid
sales record in just the first five months of 2013, driven by the
product strength of its new electrified vehicle lineup including Ford
C-MAX Hybrid, Ford C-MAX Energi, Ford Fusion Hybrid and Ford Fusion
Energi, as well as Lincoln MKZ Hybrid.

Ford beat its previous full-year hybrid sales record of 35,496
vehicles in 2010 with projected sales of 37,000 through May, an
increase of more than 375 percent over the same period last year. Ford
is now second only to Toyota in the number of hybrid vehicles it sells
in the United States with its market share continuing to grow, up from
3 percent last year to an all-time-high 15.5 percent through April
2013.

"We're working tirelessly to get as many hybrids to the market as we
can right now to meet this unprecedented customer demand for our
electrified vehicles," said Erich Merkle, Ford U.S. sales analyst.
"The success we are experiencing with hybrids is energizing the whole
company."

Ford C-MAX Hybrid and Ford Fusion Hybrid continue to draw new
customers to the Ford brand, with conquest rates remaining highest in
the Ford showroom since the launch of both vehicle lines. Fusion
Hybrid conquest sales are holding steady at 67 percent, with C-MAX
Hybrid at 63 percent. The new lineup continues to draw new customers
from Toyota and Honda, with most conquest sales coming from Toyota.

Ford Fusion Hybrid continues to fly off dealer lots, attaining some of
the highest turn rates in the Ford showroom. Fusion Hybrid is turning
in just 14 days on average as customers are drawn to the all-new car's
fuel economy, styling and design. This turn rate is even higher in key
markets like Los Angeles, at just 10 days. Fusion Hybrid represents an
all-time-high percentage of overall Fusion sales, at 15 percent.

Ford Fusion Energi plug-in hybrid - the newest addition to Ford's
electrified vehicle lineup - is also expected to achieve its best
sales month ever since its launch in February.

"Our all-new electrified vehicle lineup is drawing new customers to
the Ford brand," said C.J. O'Donnell, Ford electrification group
marketing manager. "We are growing our business by providing fuel-
efficient products that don't force customers to compromise the
design, technology and comfort that are available across the Ford
lineup.

"We're hearing from our dealers they literally can't keep our hybrids
in stock," O'Donnell added. "This is particularly evident in key
markets like California."

Ford is delivering the power of choice
----

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

OK, I got my rant out in the last message.

Here are the results from yesterday's game. Most worthy of note ~ we
missed John!

Remarkably, the OLD Relic managed a five-bagger for the day.

nsrb wijram Actual
O: $15.79 $15.78* $15.77
H: $15.93 $15.95* $16.02
L: $15.48 $15.53* $15.74
C: $15.81 $15.91* $15.90
v: $ .46 $ .30

[Mohojo]

Great post. I love the detail and information.

[Chuck D]

Roger that.  I read this forum every morning and find the posts here very informative.  I don't have much to say and have no idea what the stock is going to do day-to-day, but am STILL long the F.

On Fri, May 31, 2013 at 8:37 AM, Mohojo <moh...@gmail.com> wrote:

Great post. I love the detail and information.

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[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Thanks for the kind words ~ they are most appreciated.

I certainly expect to revise before the opening, but here are my
"early" numbers for today's daily game:

O: $15.88
H: $16.07
L: $15.81
C: $15.97

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Rather than writing this up, here is a piece just out:

----
U.S. Stocks Set to Open Last Trading Day of May in the Red; Traders
Anticipate Volatile Session 05/31 31-May-13 08:08:00

09:08 AM EDT, 05/31/2013 (MidnightTrader) -- U.S. stock futures geared
up for a lower open ahead of a relatively busy economic calendar while
traders are bracing for some end-of-month volatility.

Already released this a.m. was data that showed that consumer spending
dropped 0.2% in April, compared to the 0.1% decrease economists polled
by MarketWatch were expecting. This was the fastest reduction in
spending in almost a year. At the same time, the commerce department
reported that income growth was flat. The savings rate held steady at
2.5%, near a five-year low.

Also on today's calendar, At 9:45 a.m., the Chicago PMI for May will
be released. Economists forecast that the Chicago PMI will come in at
49.9, still under the key 50 mark that would indicate expansion.

In addition, at 9:55 a.m. ET the final reading of the University of
Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for May will be released. It is
expected to edge up to 83.8.

Overseas, European stocks are lower while Asian stocks closed down.
Commodities are mixed pre-bell. Crude oil fell as an OPEC meeting
kicked off, with futures last down 0.73%. Gold futures are down 0.45%.

U.S. PRE-MARKET INDICATORS
-Dow Jones Industrial down 0.52%
-S&P 500 futures down 0.59%
----

[notsorichbob]

O   -  15.84
H  -  16.09
L  -   15.76
C  -   15.93

[Mohojo]

notsorichbob,

You are pretty close so far. I am always impressed by your and wijram  numbers.

[Ayahghi]

F was one of the Number 1 Stocks on the Top 10 List for June 3 on Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-top-ten-stocks-for-june-3-8kFR_uV6S5e_r_zKmW8gBw.html