F on Thursday, 23 May 2013

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Afraid that I am not paying enough attention to what is happening in
the markets, but have just too much that I must focus on in other
parts of my world.

Should be a MOST interesting day. Did not like that first glance this
morning that showed DJIA futures DOWN 142 pts and the S&P down 18.50!

But there will be a LOT of things on the economic calendar today that
can change that market direction. Among them are:

James Bullard Speaks @ 6:05 AM ET
Bullard of the St. Louis Fed is speaking in London at a
conference. Normally I would not even list this,but
with the fears about Fed policy changes, his speech might
impact.

Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash @ 8:58 AM ET

FHFA House Price Index @ 9:00 AM ET

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index @ 9:45 AM ET

New Home Sales @ 10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11:00 AM ET

So, from jobs to inflation, to housing, to consumer confidence, to
housing, to energy, to manufacturing ~ pretty good snapshot of the
state of the US economy!

Ought to be a RIDE!

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Jobless Claims Better than Expected

----
Jobless Claims
Released On 5/23/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk5/18, 2013
Prior
Prior Revsd Cons Cons Range Actual
New Claims 360K 363K 345K 340Kto360K 340K
4-wk Mov A 339.25K 340K 339.50K
New Claims 32K 35K -23K

Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims spiked higher in the May 11 week, up 32,000 to
a 360,000 level that is the highest since late March. There were no
special factors to explain away the gain that lifted the 4-week
average by 1,250 to 339,250 which, despite the increase, wass still
more than 20,000 below the month-ago trend to hint at improvement for
the May employment report.

[notsorichbob]

05/22/13
Wednesday's Game
Player	John	Nsrb	Wjrm	Avg	Actual
Open	15.05	15.09	15.08*	15.07	15.08
High	15.28	15.25	15.29*	15.27	15.32
Low	14.78	14.94*	15.00	14.86	14.86
Close	14.87	15.21	15.24	15.04	14.97
	0.25*	0.40	0.44	0.33

Wijram gets the nod for the open and high, While John gets a tip of the hat for best market variance.
Waiting for days for Ford shares to go on sale.  Today looks light a blue light special, and I spent my money yesterday at retail.

[notsorichbob]

John,
Sorry about the bad arithmetic. Good job on the low, close and best variance. 

About today; I'm considering doubling down.  The US economy is recovering despite the sequester, the EU will continue to recover despite itself. China, well what's so bad about a more normal growth rate?

[Mohojo]

Chinese manufacturing shrank. This could turn out to be a bad day. Question for all. If i wrote a proper website for our group and maybe a few others would yall rather that then here?

[halfquart]

I'd be all in!  I visit here nearly everyday, prior to the market open.  I've learned alot and appreciated the sharing of knowledge, or more like wisdom.  BTW- I'm still holding one lot of F from $2.10 /share. 

[in...@eagleconnector.com]

O - $14.60

H - $15.22

L - $14.38

C - $15.18

 

John

[notsorichbob]

John,
Wijram,
I got so busy placing and cancelling buy orders before the open I forgot to play the game.  Pretty nasty down-draft for a few minutes before the open.  For the rest of the day I see a high falling a little short of $15.00 and a close around $14.93. 
nsrb

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

I took on a triple overload this morning! Now ALL IN!

Some more decent news on growth in manufacturing!

----
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
Released On 5/23/2013 8:58:00 AM For May, 2013

Prior Cons Consensus Range Actual
Level 52.0 50.8 50.1 to 53.0 51.9

Highlights
Growth in general activity is steady and modest so far this month in
the nation's manufacturing sector based on the PMI flash which slipped
fractionally to 51.9 vs a final April reading of 52.1 and the mid-
month April flash reading of 52.0. These levels are virtually
identical, all just a bit over 50 to indicate monthly growth and all
at about the same pace.

A plus for the May flash report is strength in new orders which are up
1.3 points to 52.8 which points to a rising rate of monthly growth.
Other readings are mixed with backlog orders steady, inventories
moving lower, price pressures rising slightly, and hiring slowing.

One clear negative is contraction in export orders which fell 2.4
points to a sub-50 level of 49.4. This reading evokes this month's
flash PMI for China which is under 50 at 49.6 and is a reminder that
overseas markets may not be expanding.

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been slowing and, based on the
manufacturing component of the industrial production report, has been
in contraction in March and April at least based on shipments.
Shipments in this report have continued to grow and are at a
respectable 52.8 this month, which however is still lower than 53.7 in
April. Today's report isn't likely to boost much confidence that the
manufacturing sector is moving highe


On May 23, 7:27 am, "in...@eagleconnector.com"

[wijram]

Hey nsrb~

I too was too busy getting ready and then buying a third OVERLOAD of F
Jan 2015 calls! Cupboards are now bare!

Loved the price I got them at, except for what it meant for the losses
I was taking on the everything I already held.

Whew! That HURTS!

But am pretty highly confident that we will regain the earlier levels
fairly quickly. Do NOT see this as the beginning of a major
correction.

[wijram]

Hey nsrb~

Meant to add that I agree with your predictions regarding the HIGH and
the CLOSE today.

Will mean a nice little gain on the trading block I took on.

On May 23, 7:59 am, notsorichbob <rlmorg...@gmail.com> wrote:

[in...@eagleconnector.com]

I am with you guys on the overload.

 

I will feel a lot more comfortable if we can hold above $14.75 for another 30 minutes.

 

John

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

More pretty strong good news! This time from HOUSING!

----
FHFA House Price Index
Released On 5/23/2013 9:00:00 AM For Mar, 2013

Prior
Prior Revsd Cons Cons Range Actual

M/M chng 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%to1.2% 1.3%
Y/Y chng 7.1% 7.2%

Highlights
The Fed's quantitative easing continues to help asset prices rise in
the housing market-although supply shortages remain a key factor. The
FHFA price index for March advanced 1.3 percent after improving 0.9
percent the month before. The latest number came in above the
consensus forecast for 0.9 percent.

The March boost was led by the Pacific region, increasing 2.3 percent.
All nine Census regions posted gains in the latest month with the
softest rise being 0.5 percent in the West South Central region.

House prices according to the FHFA measure have risen for 14
consecutive months.

The year-on-year rate for March improved to plus 7.2 percent versus
7.1 percent for the month before.

----

On May 23, 8:16 am, "in...@eagleconnector.com"

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Even stronger positive news from HOUSING - New Home Sales!

----

New Home Sales
Released On 5/23/2013 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2013
Prior
Prior Rvsed Cons Cons Range Actual
New Home Sales SAAR 417K 444K 425K 406Kto440K 454K

Highlights
Sales are rising in the new home market despite limited supply, a mix
that's driving prices sharply higher. New home sales rose 2.3 percent
in April to a 454,000 annual rate which is far above the Econoday
consensus for 425,000. Revisions to March and February show a very
strong net gain of 45,000 from initial levels that points to much
greater than expected activity in prior months.

Price readings are skyrocketing, up 8.3 percent in April alone for the
median price to $271,600. The average price, at $330,800, is up 15.4
percent in the month. These readings, which are not based on repeat
transactions, can be volatile but the year-on-year gain, at 14.9
percent for both the median and the average, is very convincing and
mirrors gains in yesterday's existing home sales report.

Supply is pouring into the existing home sales market but not into the
new home market where credit availability for builders remains limited
and where supply chain constraints may be holding back new
construction. New homes on the market rose only 5,000 in the month to
156,000 to keep supply at the current sales rate unchanged at 4.1
months.

Home price appreciation was billed as perhaps this year's big economic
story, a story that appears to be playing out and that points to
rising confidence and spending among homeowners. The Dow is moving off
opening lows following today's report.
----

[wijram]

Hey John,

You must be somewhere between more relaxed and downright happy at this
stage. F just traded at $14.85!

On May 23, 8:16 am, "in...@eagleconnector.com"
<i...@eagleconnector.com> wrote:

[in...@eagleconnector.com]

Thanks Wijram, I am.

 

 I was able to get a buy at $14.40 just after the bell.  Then I made a double buy on margin at $14.7399 (most of the time I go margin it backfires on me).  Seeing $15.32 yesterday gave me a boost of confidence.

 

Do you think the options action can still get us over $15.50 tomorrow?

 

John

[wijram]

Hey John~

As for $15.50 by the close on Friday ~ bluntly, not a chance in hell,
unless they are AWFULLY Big Boys playing that game. If that is the
case, ANYTHING is possible.

Me, I would be absolutely beside myself if we were to get to $15.33!




On May 23, 9:28 am, "in...@eagleconnector.com"

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

And to TOP the news ~ Sales Projections for May 2013 by TrueCar ~
Enough to BLOW My MIND!!! -- This might be enough to spur F to a new
52-week HIGH today or tomorrow!

What a comparison with GM!


----
May 23, 2013, 7:00 a.m. EDT

May 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up Almost Nine Percent According
to TrueCar; May 2013 SAAR at 15.2M, Highest May SAAR Since 2007

Estimated incentive spending down three percent since last year at
$2,482 per vehicle

SANTA MONICA, Calif., May 23, 2013 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --
TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing information, trends and
forecasting, today released its May 2013 sales and incentives
forecast. The forecast shows the following:

-- For May 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet)
is expected to be 1,435,495 units, up 8.5 percent from May 2012 and up
12.1 percent from April 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).

-- The May 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted
Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.2 million new car sales, up from 14.9
April 2013 and up from 13.9 million in May 2012.

-- Retail sales are up almost six percent compared to May 2012 and up
twelve percent from April 2013.

-- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20.2 percent of
total industry sales in May 2013.

-- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be
approximately $2,482 in May 2013, which represents a decrease of 3
percent from May 2012 and is down 1.7 percent from April 2013.

-- Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,345,674. The ratio of new to
used is estimated to be 1:3 for May 2013.

"Full size truck sales continue to gain momentum in May and we expect
the segment to post a 22 percent increase compared to the nearly nine
percent industry increase," said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for
TrueCar.com. "Stability in the industry is now the norm, which is a
positive for automakers as it results in the ability to optimize
production levels, therefore improving profitability."


Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for May 2013:

Unit Sales May 2013 % Change vs. % Change vs.
Manufacturer Forecast April 2013 May 2012
Chrysler 139,436 -10.4% -6.2%
Ford 246,829 18.4% 20.1%
GM 266,167 12.0% 8.5%
Honda 143,107 9.2% 6.8%
Hyundai/Kia 119,222 7.5% 0.4%
Nissan 115,120 31.0% 25.4%
Toyota 213,317 21.1% 5.1%
Volkswagen Group 57,988 14.1% 9.4%
Industry 1,435,495 12.1% 8.5%


Market Share May 2013
Manufacturer Forecast April 2013 May 2012
Chrysler 9.7% 12.2% 11.2%
Ford 17.2% 16.3% 15.5%
GM 18.5% 18.6% 18.5%
Honda 10.0% 10.2% 10.1%
Hyundai/Kia 8.3% 8.7% 9.0%
Nissan 8.0% 6.9% 6.9%
Toyota 14.9% 13.8% 15.3%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%


Incentive Spending
May 2013 % Change vs. % Change vs.
Manufacturer Incentives April 2013 May 2012 Total
Spending
Chrysler $3,223 -2.9% 2.6% $
449,460,344
Ford $2,990 2.3% 12.7% $
737,986,768
GM $3,254 -10.5% -3.4% $
865,975,132
Honda $1,810 12.8% -23.1% $
258,954,006
Hyundai/Kia $1,405 1.6% 13.1% $
167,477,888
Nissan $1,821 -15.9% -34.2% $
209,688,952
Toyota $1,925 22.5% -2.2% $
410,560,641
Volkswagen Group $2,393 1.2% -5.9% $
138,759,116
Industry $2,482 -1.7% -3.0%
$3,562,162,196



"Incentive spending has continued to decline in May, painting an even
better picture of profitability for automakers," said Kristen
Andersson, analyst for TrueCar.com. "In May, Nissan was the only major
automaker to decrease incentive spending, post a double digit sales
increase and gain a full percentage point of market share compared to
last year, due to continued interest in the redesigned Altima."

TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The
transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and
historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including sales,
inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major
stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI).
TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year
percentage change calculations.

*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships,
independent dealerships and private party sales

About TrueCar, Inc.TrueCar, Inc., headquartered in Santa Monica,
Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif.,
and Austin, Texas, is an automotive pricing information and analysis
company that creates a better buying experience for dealers and
consumers. As an online publisher of unbiased new and used car
transaction data, TrueCar.com provides price reports that empower
dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by
supplying a transparent, simple understanding of what others recently
paid for similarly-equipped new cars in their geographic area. TrueCar
also owns ALG, the benchmark for vehicle value information in the auto
industry and has been forecasting residual values for nearly 50 years
in the U.S. and Canadian markets.

TrueCar is a data-driven company that sources, compiles and analyzes
car-buying information unlike anybody in the industry. Since its
founding in 2005, TrueCar dealer partners have sold over 700,000
vehicles across the country. Its national network of nearly 6,000
Certified Dealers is committed to provide no-hassle pricing for some
of the country's largest membership and service organizations,
including American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports that
collectively represent more than one million monthly in-market
customers.

You can follow TrueCar on Twitter (@TrueCar) and become a fan of
TrueCar on Facebook and Google+.

DisclaimerThis press release and the information contained herein is
for noncommercial use on "as-is, as available" basis and may be used
for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or
warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information
contained in this press release and the results of the use of such
information, including without limitation, the implied warranty of
merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-
infringement. The information contained in this press release may
include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither
TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates or respective
partners, officers, directors, employees or agents shall be held
liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special
or consequential, including without limitation, lost revenues or lost
profits arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the
information presented in this press release.

----

[in...@eagleconnector.com]

Thanks again Wijram.

 

Cleared my margin position.  More comfortable riding on my own funds.

 

Now can I revise one of my May 6th statements to...  $15.40 area at May sales??

 

John

[Mohojo]

Think I may buy more Oct call options