Ford on Monday Jan 24 2011
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Gotluck
Jan 24, 2011, 5:45:34 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Good morning TT,
Dry ships still dropping, currently at 5.00, a new low since Nov. 9th
forming a fairly symmetrical heads and shoulders. On improving volume,
the S&P looks weak after Thursdays drop with a sound push back from
the high. DJI and had a better day. Ford seems to be somewhere in the
middle having opened and closed higher but with little actual movement
between the two. Ford’s earnings is scheduled for January 28th. It
would be nice to see some cooperation from the markets going into it.
The markets as they appear at 4:45
Asia
Nikkei 10345.11 ▲ 0.69%
HSI 23801.78 ▼ 0.31%
China 2695.72 ▼ 0.72%
Europe
FTSE 5896.62 ▲ 0.01%
DAX 7012.52 ▼ 0.71%
CAC 4011.35 ▼ 0.15%
Pre-US
S&P 1280.20 ▲ 0.04%
DOW 11828.0 ▲ 0.05%
NAS 2269.75 ▲ 0.03%
Oil 88.95 ▼ 0.18%
US Treasury yields range since September in the first column, followed
by a week of data gathered in the early morning, ending with this
morning at the end.
Term Range Tues Wed Thur Fri Mon
3mo .11 ~ .16 .14 .14 .16 .15 .15
6mo .15 ~ .20 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18
12mo .19 ~ .29 .26 .25 .25 .26 .26
2yr .34 ~ .72 .58 .59 .57 .61 .62
3yr .50 ~ 1.13 .99 1.02 .98 1.04 1.06
5yr 1.08 ~ 2.14 1.93 1.97 1.93 2.01 2.03
7yr 1.70 ~ 2.84 2.65 2.72 2.67 2.77 2.77
10yr 2.35 ~ 3.44 3.32 3.38 3.33 3.42 3.42
30yr 3.66 ~ 4.54 4.52 4.56 4.52 4.59 4.57
10-yr. Bonds % ~ ham-fisted attempt at a PIG radar…
Fri Tues Wed Thur Fri Mon
Portgl 6.87 6.97 7.08 6.94 6.87 6.85
Italy 4.71 4.76 4.79 4.73 4.79 4.69
Greec 11.26 11.25 11.51 11.42 11.43 11.45
Spain 5.37 5.48 5.49 5.37 5.36 5.26
For those that find the pivot point numbers useful…
R3 18.32
R2 18.22
R1 18.08
PP 17.98
S1 17.84
S2 17.74
S3 17.60
On the economic calendar today
11:00 4-wk. Bill Announcement
11:30 3-mo. Bill Auction
11:30 6-mo. Bill Auction
Thursdays Game
Plyr Wjrm Nsrb Gtlk Tmln Avg Actual
Open 17.98* 17.93 17.93 18.00* 17.96 17.99
High 18.34 18.40 18.12* 18.22 18.27 18.11
Low 17.86* 17.77 17.44 17.76 17.71 17.87
Close 18.28 18.36 17.63 17.96* 18.06 18.06
Diff. 0.58 0.86 0.82 0.24 0.46
Two for both Wijram and Tmalone.
My goodness Loki, how did you do this! I’m nowhere near a full body
cast and the mouse feel like it weighs 200 lbs. God bless…
Trade well Think Tank
And have a great day.
Dry ships still dropping, currently at 5.00, a new low since Nov. 9th
forming a fairly symmetrical heads and shoulders. On improving volume,
the S&P looks weak after Thursdays drop with a sound push back from
the high. DJI and had a better day. Ford seems to be somewhere in the
middle having opened and closed higher but with little actual movement
between the two. Ford’s earnings is scheduled for January 28th. It
would be nice to see some cooperation from the markets going into it.
The markets as they appear at 4:45
Asia
Nikkei 10345.11 ▲ 0.69%
HSI 23801.78 ▼ 0.31%
China 2695.72 ▼ 0.72%
Europe
FTSE 5896.62 ▲ 0.01%
DAX 7012.52 ▼ 0.71%
CAC 4011.35 ▼ 0.15%
Pre-US
S&P 1280.20 ▲ 0.04%
DOW 11828.0 ▲ 0.05%
NAS 2269.75 ▲ 0.03%
Oil 88.95 ▼ 0.18%
US Treasury yields range since September in the first column, followed
by a week of data gathered in the early morning, ending with this
morning at the end.
Term Range Tues Wed Thur Fri Mon
3mo .11 ~ .16 .14 .14 .16 .15 .15
6mo .15 ~ .20 .18 .18 .18 .18 .18
12mo .19 ~ .29 .26 .25 .25 .26 .26
2yr .34 ~ .72 .58 .59 .57 .61 .62
3yr .50 ~ 1.13 .99 1.02 .98 1.04 1.06
5yr 1.08 ~ 2.14 1.93 1.97 1.93 2.01 2.03
7yr 1.70 ~ 2.84 2.65 2.72 2.67 2.77 2.77
10yr 2.35 ~ 3.44 3.32 3.38 3.33 3.42 3.42
30yr 3.66 ~ 4.54 4.52 4.56 4.52 4.59 4.57
10-yr. Bonds % ~ ham-fisted attempt at a PIG radar…
Fri Tues Wed Thur Fri Mon
Portgl 6.87 6.97 7.08 6.94 6.87 6.85
Italy 4.71 4.76 4.79 4.73 4.79 4.69
Greec 11.26 11.25 11.51 11.42 11.43 11.45
Spain 5.37 5.48 5.49 5.37 5.36 5.26
For those that find the pivot point numbers useful…
R3 18.32
R2 18.22
R1 18.08
PP 17.98
S1 17.84
S2 17.74
S3 17.60
On the economic calendar today
11:00 4-wk. Bill Announcement
11:30 3-mo. Bill Auction
11:30 6-mo. Bill Auction
Thursdays Game
Plyr Wjrm Nsrb Gtlk Tmln Avg Actual
Open 17.98* 17.93 17.93 18.00* 17.96 17.99
High 18.34 18.40 18.12* 18.22 18.27 18.11
Low 17.86* 17.77 17.44 17.76 17.71 17.87
Close 18.28 18.36 17.63 17.96* 18.06 18.06
Diff. 0.58 0.86 0.82 0.24 0.46
Two for both Wijram and Tmalone.
My goodness Loki, how did you do this! I’m nowhere near a full body
cast and the mouse feel like it weighs 200 lbs. God bless…
Trade well Think Tank
And have a great day.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 7:33:05 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Gotluck & All~
Thanks for the Opener, Gotluck! Most appreciated!
Not sure what just happened, but the "Ask" side of the queues just
jumped noticeably. Spread is now $17.50 - $18.04.
Only one trade appears on my platform ~ @ $17.95 back at 7:03ET.
Opps, trade just hit ~ @ $18.05. Spread remains the same.
Thanks for the Opener, Gotluck! Most appreciated!
Not sure what just happened, but the "Ask" side of the queues just
jumped noticeably. Spread is now $17.50 - $18.04.
Only one trade appears on my platform ~ @ $17.95 back at 7:03ET.
Opps, trade just hit ~ @ $18.05. Spread remains the same.
£σҝі from Toronto
Jan 24, 2011, 7:47:23 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Good morning TT. As always Gotluck, excellent opener and funny thing
about that mouse - it changes weight all the time!!
And now, the top ten things you need to know before the bell:
1) Asian markets were lower in overnight trading, with the Nikkei the
exception, up 0.69%. Major European indices are mixed, while U.S.
futures indicate a negative open.
2) New European bank stress tests could come in H1 2011, and will look
more like their American counterparts, according to French Finance
Minister Christine Lagarde. The new tests are in response to a
prolonged lack of confidence in the system after the last tests were
seen as weak.
3) Eurozone PMI for the services sector came in at a better than
expected 55.2, as a result of German strength. Employment growth has,
however, slowed throughout the region.
4) Philips profits were weaker than expected in Q4 2010, based on low
TV sales. The company expects developed market demand for its goods to
remain weak.
5) Cocoa futures are spiking this morning on news that the Ivory
Coast's new president has banned exports for one month. The move is
meant to put pressure on sitting president Gbagbo, who is refusing to
give up his post.
6) Ireland's government is in disarray this morning with the country's
Green Party pulling out of a coalition with Fianna Fáil. The country's
election is set for March 11, but may be moved forward if the
government collapses.
7) GE is selling its GE Money Singapore division to Standard Chartered
for as much as $701 million. The move continues Standard Chartered's
expansion in Singapore and furthers GE's divestment from assets it
considers non-core.
8) The retailer J.C. Penney is giving board seats to Bill Ackman of
Pershing Square Capital and to the Vornando Real Estate Trust as a
result of their investments in the firm. Pershing Square Capital owns
16.5% of J.C. Penney.
9) Sanofi-Aventis has yet again extended its offer for Genzyme as both
companies continue negotiations. Sanofi-Aventis' offer remains at
$18.5 billion.
10) New papers on Israel-Palestine negotiations show Palestinian
leadership offering significant concessions, only to be rebuffed by
Israeli leadership. Also, it appears the Palestinian leadership is
negotiating for different results that the Palestinian people are
pursuing.
Bonus (you know this is what you look forward to the most): Kim
Kardashian is back to wanting a child, and says she wants it to look
like Kris Humphries, her new boyfriend. That's a good thing - right?
about that mouse - it changes weight all the time!!
And now, the top ten things you need to know before the bell:
1) Asian markets were lower in overnight trading, with the Nikkei the
exception, up 0.69%. Major European indices are mixed, while U.S.
futures indicate a negative open.
2) New European bank stress tests could come in H1 2011, and will look
more like their American counterparts, according to French Finance
Minister Christine Lagarde. The new tests are in response to a
prolonged lack of confidence in the system after the last tests were
seen as weak.
3) Eurozone PMI for the services sector came in at a better than
expected 55.2, as a result of German strength. Employment growth has,
however, slowed throughout the region.
4) Philips profits were weaker than expected in Q4 2010, based on low
TV sales. The company expects developed market demand for its goods to
remain weak.
5) Cocoa futures are spiking this morning on news that the Ivory
Coast's new president has banned exports for one month. The move is
meant to put pressure on sitting president Gbagbo, who is refusing to
give up his post.
6) Ireland's government is in disarray this morning with the country's
Green Party pulling out of a coalition with Fianna Fáil. The country's
election is set for March 11, but may be moved forward if the
government collapses.
7) GE is selling its GE Money Singapore division to Standard Chartered
for as much as $701 million. The move continues Standard Chartered's
expansion in Singapore and furthers GE's divestment from assets it
considers non-core.
8) The retailer J.C. Penney is giving board seats to Bill Ackman of
Pershing Square Capital and to the Vornando Real Estate Trust as a
result of their investments in the firm. Pershing Square Capital owns
16.5% of J.C. Penney.
9) Sanofi-Aventis has yet again extended its offer for Genzyme as both
companies continue negotiations. Sanofi-Aventis' offer remains at
$18.5 billion.
10) New papers on Israel-Palestine negotiations show Palestinian
leadership offering significant concessions, only to be rebuffed by
Israeli leadership. Also, it appears the Palestinian leadership is
negotiating for different results that the Palestinian people are
pursuing.
Bonus (you know this is what you look forward to the most): Kim
Kardashian is back to wanting a child, and says she wants it to look
like Kris Humphries, her new boyfriend. That's a good thing - right?
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 8:06:33 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
Market coming alive at the transition to the extended-hours market.
At 8:00ET, F traded at $18.02 with 11K shares having changed hands.
Spread is $18.01-$18.02, with the queues thin but fairly well formed
(full).
With no economic reports due out today, and light action in the
earnings reports, it will be intersting to see market direction.
With F earnings due out at the end of this week, it will be MOST
interesting to see the action today and the next couple of days.
> > On Jan 24, 4:45 am, Gotluck <rsgotl...@gmail.com> wrote:- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
Market coming alive at the transition to the extended-hours market.
At 8:00ET, F traded at $18.02 with 11K shares having changed hands.
Spread is $18.01-$18.02, with the queues thin but fairly well formed
(full).
With no economic reports due out today, and light action in the
earnings reports, it will be intersting to see market direction.
With F earnings due out at the end of this week, it will be MOST
interesting to see the action today and the next couple of days.
>
> - Show quoted text -
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 8:18:17 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
MacDonald's earnings announcement is out ~ they apparently met the
street's expectation with earnings @ $1.16.
Halidurton also out ~ beating the stret with earnings of $.68 instead
of the consensus of $.63.
Perhaps consequently, the futures are now in postive territory with
the DJIA UP 9 pts and the S&P UP 1.00 pt.
F just traded at $18.10 with 28,745 shares traded.
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
MacDonald's earnings announcement is out ~ they apparently met the
street's expectation with earnings @ $1.16.
Halidurton also out ~ beating the stret with earnings of $.68 instead
of the consensus of $.63.
Perhaps consequently, the futures are now in postive territory with
the DJIA UP 9 pts and the S&P UP 1.00 pt.
F just traded at $18.10 with 28,745 shares traded.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 9:11:44 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
Definitely in an optimistic mode this morning. Do expect to see F
rise throughout the week so that the ramp is built for earnings
announcement.
Speaking of which, we are, almost certainly, about to raise our target
for F. But more on that later.
For now, here are my numbers for the day. Since we are posting a tad
early, we may need to revise closer to the open.
O: $18.10 (GAP UP)
H: $18.41 (R3)
L: $17.94 (This may be a little too pessimistic, but....)
C: $18.32 (R3)
Definitely in an optimistic mode this morning. Do expect to see F
rise throughout the week so that the ramp is built for earnings
announcement.
Speaking of which, we are, almost certainly, about to raise our target
for F. But more on that later.
For now, here are my numbers for the day. Since we are posting a tad
early, we may need to revise closer to the open.
O: $18.10 (GAP UP)
H: $18.41 (R3)
L: $17.94 (This may be a little too pessimistic, but....)
C: $18.32 (R3)
notsorichbob
Jan 24, 2011, 9:15:19 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
O - 18.07
H - 18.38
L - 17.94
C - 18.27
H - 18.38
L - 17.94
C - 18.27
Gotluck
Jan 24, 2011, 9:18:18 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
From my broken gut...lol(ouch)
18.10
18.36
17.94
18.02
18.10
18.36
17.94
18.02
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 9:21:59 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
Can someone who is good at Fib lines, check this out for me.
We read over the weekend an analysis that F would be at $22.00 by Apr,
according to a Fib line analysis.
We are not good at such work, but when my bride attempted it, she
found that on both a long-term (since Jan 2009) and an intermediate
term analysis, the $22.00 level seemed right by Apr of this year.
We then asked a friend who is an accomplished trader who uses Fib
Lines as a major guide to take a look, and he confirmed it. This
friend, in my view, usually carries the negative basis that I
associate with most highly successful traders.
We are about to change our targets based, in part, on this analysis.
Before doing so, I would love to hear what other members of the Think
Tank have to say.
Please note whether your view is based on your own Fib Line analysis
or not.
I will also note that this would NOT be inconsistent with the earnings
predictions that Loki has posted for this quarter (to be announced
Friday) and year.
> > C - 18.27- Hide quoted text -
Can someone who is good at Fib lines, check this out for me.
We read over the weekend an analysis that F would be at $22.00 by Apr,
according to a Fib line analysis.
We are not good at such work, but when my bride attempted it, she
found that on both a long-term (since Jan 2009) and an intermediate
term analysis, the $22.00 level seemed right by Apr of this year.
We then asked a friend who is an accomplished trader who uses Fib
Lines as a major guide to take a look, and he confirmed it. This
friend, in my view, usually carries the negative basis that I
associate with most highly successful traders.
We are about to change our targets based, in part, on this analysis.
Before doing so, I would love to hear what other members of the Think
Tank have to say.
Please note whether your view is based on your own Fib Line analysis
or not.
I will also note that this would NOT be inconsistent with the earnings
predictions that Loki has posted for this quarter (to be announced
Friday) and year.
tmalone
Jan 24, 2011, 9:25:54 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
O 18.08
H 18.27
L 17.91
C 18.06
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
H 18.27
L 17.91
C 18.06
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 9:27:06 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
Interesting headline on CNBC:
----
Hiring Plans Reach Highest Level in 12 Years: Poll
----
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
Interesting headline on CNBC:
----
Hiring Plans Reach Highest Level in 12 Years: Poll
----
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 9:29:48 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Revise: $18.08
edin
Jan 24, 2011, 9:31:24 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
serious question
New Explorer? out
I think 2 months ago, F had vague reference to availble in winter
(similar to fiesta in summer, but only 1K sold in June)
& loki on the 2 down days last week
was short sales 45% of total volume????
curious if you have #s
loki
Kim Kardashian ?
but I like
Chris Rocks line, about her- & dancing with the stars
"its a shame, all that Azz and doesnt know how to shake it"
unsure about atilla comments from others here
while he called being bearish 07 & 08 but
Im pretty sure stood by the same call during all of 2009
that said, listen to
roubini, marc fabar (prior prema bears)
may make sense hearing now what they have to say
nassim telab also intersting fella
but best line about World will end prema bears is
"usually its not smart to beat / trade on the end of the world,
cause it only happens once "
...........
also
Art Cashin from cnbc is a stud
& last year near dec / jan made a comment market had so
much fluff, could see 1000 pt DOW down day
hmmmm
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 9:42:42 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Rise at open was a short cover move. There is no buying enthusiasm at
this level.
this level.
tmalone
Jan 24, 2011, 9:49:52 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Huh, I thought it would run a little at open with the markets up.
Curious to see what happens from 10 to 11. It needs to get over 18
and stay!
Curious to see what happens from 10 to 11. It needs to get over 18
and stay!
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 9:52:54 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Hey Michael,
Thanks for clarifying.
The 40+ pt. rise in the DJIA to 11,913.16 had me confused.
{Grin!}
> > hmmmm- Hide quoted text -
Thanks for clarifying.
The 40+ pt. rise in the DJIA to 11,913.16 had me confused.
{Grin!}
£σҝі from Toronto
Jan 24, 2011, 9:53:51 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Here's who is reporting today (big day - 70 companies), period
reporting on, release time and consensus estimate:
Company Period Time Consensus
Released
Before the market opened:
Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Q4 2010 9:00 AM ET $0.62
Halliburton Co (HAL) Q4 2010 6:55 AM ET $0.63
McDonalds Corp. (MCD) Q4 2010 8:00 AM ET $1.15
Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) Q4 2010 7:00 AM ET $0.34
Optical Cable Corp. (OCCF) - - -
PetMed Express Inc. (PETS) Q3 2011 8:05 AM ET $0.20
Sealed Air Corp. (SEE) Q4 2010 7:30 AM ET $0.46
Sensata Technologies Hldg (ST) Q4 2010 7:00 AM ET $0.44
Silicom Ltd (SILC) Q4 2010 8:15 AM ET $0.25
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Q4 2010 - $0.09
Tuesday Morning Corp. (TUES) Q2 2011 8:00 AM ET $0.40
Twin Disc Inc. (TWIN) Q2 2011 8:00 AM ET $0.24
Wintrust Financial Corp. (WTFC) Q4 2010 7:00 AM ET $0.23
During market hours:
Bank of Hawaii Corp. (BOH) Q4 2010 - $0.69
CSB Bancorp, Inc. (CSBB) - 1:30 PM ET -
First Citizens BancSh (FCNCA) Q4 2010 2:55 PM ET $3.37
FNB BANCORP (FNBG) - - -
HopFed Bancorp, Inc. (HFBC) Q4 2010 - $0.16
ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN) Q3 2011 - -
IEC Electronics Corp. (IEC) - - -
Naugatuck Valley Financial(NVSL) - - -
Northwest Bancorp, Inc. (NWBI) Q4 2010 - $0.15
Patapsco Bancorp Inc (PATD) - - -
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Q4 2010 - $0.13
Sterlite Industries Ltd. (SLT) Q3 2011 11:00 AM ET -
United Financial Bancorp (UBNK) Q4 2010 - $0.18
After the market closes:
Albemarle Corp. (ALB) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.87
Aluminum Corp. China Ltd. (ACH) - - -
American Express Co. (AXP) Q4 2010 4:10 PM ET $0.93
Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Q4 2010 4:05 PM ET $1.10
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) Q4 2010 6:00 PM ET $0.68
BEDFORD BANCSHARES INC (BFSB) 2010 - -$0.16
Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.26
Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) Q4 2010 4:20 PM ET $0.13
Citizens South Banking (CSBC) Q4 2010 4:30 PM ET -$0.06
City Holding Company (CHCO) Q4 2010 - $0.58
CNB Financial Corp/PA (CCNE) Q4 2010 - $0.25
Community Bank System Inc (CBU) Q4 2010 - $0.48
Crane Co. (CR) Q4 2010 5:45 PM ET $0.65
CSX Corp. (CSX) Q4 2010 4:05 PM ET $1.10
Equity LifeStyle Prop (ELS) Q4 2010 6:45 PM ET $0.75
Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH) Q2 2011 - $0.09
F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) Q4 2010 - $0.14
First Defiance Financial (FDEF) Q4 2010 4:45 PM ET $0.22
First M & F Corp. (FMFC) Q4 2010 - -$0.19
Heartland Financial USA (HTLF) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.26
HF Financial Corp. (HFFC) Q2 2011 - $0.21
HMN Financial Inc. (HMNF) - 11:30 PM ET -
Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Q1 2011 9:00 PM ET $0.59
Magyar Bancorp Inc. (MGYR) - - -
Mindspeed Technologies (MSPD) Q1 2011 4:00 PM ET $0.05
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Q4 2010 - $0.41
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) Q4 2010 4:50 PM ET $0.52
PLX Technology, Inc. (PLXT) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET -$0.05
PRGSchultz International (PRGX) Q4 2010 8:55 PM ET $0.08
Renhuang Pharmaceuticals (CBP) - - -
RLI Corp. (RLI) Q4 2010 5:20 PM ET $0.99
Sanmina-SCI Corp (SANM) Q1 2011 4:00 PM ET $0.37
Sims Group Ltd. (SMS) Q2 2011 6:35 PM ET -
SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) Q4 2010 - $0.90
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Q4 2010 4:40 PM ET $0.24
SuperGen, Inc. (SUPG) Q4 2010 - $0.02
Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN) Q4 2010 4:30 PM ET $0.63
Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) Q1 2011 - $0.02
United Western Bancorp (UWBK) Q4 2010 4:30 PM ET -$0.30
VMware Inc (VMW) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.44
Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) Q4 2010 4:05 PM ET $0.22
Wilshire Bancorp Inc. (WIBC) Q4 2010 - $0.08
Woodward Governor Comp (WGOV) Q1 2011 4:00 PM ET $0.39
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) Q4 2010 4:10 PM ET -$0.37
reporting on, release time and consensus estimate:
Company Period Time Consensus
Released
Before the market opened:
Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) Q4 2010 9:00 AM ET $0.62
Halliburton Co (HAL) Q4 2010 6:55 AM ET $0.63
McDonalds Corp. (MCD) Q4 2010 8:00 AM ET $1.15
Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) Q4 2010 7:00 AM ET $0.34
Optical Cable Corp. (OCCF) - - -
PetMed Express Inc. (PETS) Q3 2011 8:05 AM ET $0.20
Sealed Air Corp. (SEE) Q4 2010 7:30 AM ET $0.46
Sensata Technologies Hldg (ST) Q4 2010 7:00 AM ET $0.44
Silicom Ltd (SILC) Q4 2010 8:15 AM ET $0.25
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Q4 2010 - $0.09
Tuesday Morning Corp. (TUES) Q2 2011 8:00 AM ET $0.40
Twin Disc Inc. (TWIN) Q2 2011 8:00 AM ET $0.24
Wintrust Financial Corp. (WTFC) Q4 2010 7:00 AM ET $0.23
During market hours:
Bank of Hawaii Corp. (BOH) Q4 2010 - $0.69
CSB Bancorp, Inc. (CSBB) - 1:30 PM ET -
First Citizens BancSh (FCNCA) Q4 2010 2:55 PM ET $3.37
FNB BANCORP (FNBG) - - -
HopFed Bancorp, Inc. (HFBC) Q4 2010 - $0.16
ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN) Q3 2011 - -
IEC Electronics Corp. (IEC) - - -
Naugatuck Valley Financial(NVSL) - - -
Northwest Bancorp, Inc. (NWBI) Q4 2010 - $0.15
Patapsco Bancorp Inc (PATD) - - -
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Q4 2010 - $0.13
Sterlite Industries Ltd. (SLT) Q3 2011 11:00 AM ET -
United Financial Bancorp (UBNK) Q4 2010 - $0.18
After the market closes:
Albemarle Corp. (ALB) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.87
Aluminum Corp. China Ltd. (ACH) - - -
American Express Co. (AXP) Q4 2010 4:10 PM ET $0.93
Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Q4 2010 4:05 PM ET $1.10
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) Q4 2010 6:00 PM ET $0.68
BEDFORD BANCSHARES INC (BFSB) 2010 - -$0.16
Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.26
Cathay General Bancorp (CATY) Q4 2010 4:20 PM ET $0.13
Citizens South Banking (CSBC) Q4 2010 4:30 PM ET -$0.06
City Holding Company (CHCO) Q4 2010 - $0.58
CNB Financial Corp/PA (CCNE) Q4 2010 - $0.25
Community Bank System Inc (CBU) Q4 2010 - $0.48
Crane Co. (CR) Q4 2010 5:45 PM ET $0.65
CSX Corp. (CSX) Q4 2010 4:05 PM ET $1.10
Equity LifeStyle Prop (ELS) Q4 2010 6:45 PM ET $0.75
Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH) Q2 2011 - $0.09
F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) Q4 2010 - $0.14
First Defiance Financial (FDEF) Q4 2010 4:45 PM ET $0.22
First M & F Corp. (FMFC) Q4 2010 - -$0.19
Heartland Financial USA (HTLF) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.26
HF Financial Corp. (HFFC) Q2 2011 - $0.21
HMN Financial Inc. (HMNF) - 11:30 PM ET -
Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) Q1 2011 9:00 PM ET $0.59
Magyar Bancorp Inc. (MGYR) - - -
Mindspeed Technologies (MSPD) Q1 2011 4:00 PM ET $0.05
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Q4 2010 - $0.41
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) Q4 2010 4:50 PM ET $0.52
PLX Technology, Inc. (PLXT) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET -$0.05
PRGSchultz International (PRGX) Q4 2010 8:55 PM ET $0.08
Renhuang Pharmaceuticals (CBP) - - -
RLI Corp. (RLI) Q4 2010 5:20 PM ET $0.99
Sanmina-SCI Corp (SANM) Q1 2011 4:00 PM ET $0.37
Sims Group Ltd. (SMS) Q2 2011 6:35 PM ET -
SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) Q4 2010 - $0.90
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Q4 2010 4:40 PM ET $0.24
SuperGen, Inc. (SUPG) Q4 2010 - $0.02
Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN) Q4 2010 4:30 PM ET $0.63
Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) Q1 2011 - $0.02
United Western Bancorp (UWBK) Q4 2010 4:30 PM ET -$0.30
VMware Inc (VMW) Q4 2010 4:00 PM ET $0.44
Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) Q4 2010 4:05 PM ET $0.22
Wilshire Bancorp Inc. (WIBC) Q4 2010 - $0.08
Woodward Governor Comp (WGOV) Q1 2011 4:00 PM ET $0.39
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) Q4 2010 4:10 PM ET -$0.37
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 9:59:48 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
What's this about F issuing new bonds?
Anybody have the full story?
> > New Explorer? out- Hide quoted text -
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 10:04:29 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
Not sure if anyone else had seen this, but I had not. Interesting
story.
----
Ford Opens Talks With China On Importing More North American Built
Cars 01/21 11:53 AM
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--A senior Ford Motor Co. (F:
$17.76,00$-0.1900,-1.06%) executive said Friday that it is in
preliminary talks with Chinese authorities that could pave the way for
it to export more North American-built vehicles to China's fast-
growing domestic market.
The company started selling Canadian-built Edge crossovers in China
earlier this month and said the initial sales response encouraged it
to push for more exports.
"We can't get enough of them in China," said Stephen Biegun, Ford's
vice president of international governmental affairs, of the Edge.
Biegun, speaking on the sidelines of a U.S.-China business conference
in Chicago, said Ford wants the Chinese government to exempt the
company's export models from a variety of domestic standards. This
would saving Ford from having to set up separate engineering and
production facilities for Chinese-bound vehicles.
Ford on Friday signed an agreement with China'sMinistry of Commerce as
a first step in the planned export push.
"What we're looking for is an accommodation to build the Chinese
vehicles to U.S. standards," Biegun said.
He declined to detail how many vehicles Ford hopes to export to China
Last year, Ford sold 530,000 vehicles in China, a 40% increase over
2009. Most of the vehicles were assembled in domestic plants.
"We're looking to complement our Chinese vehicles with vehicles from
the U.S.," Biegun said.
-By Bob Tita, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4129;
rober...@dowjones.com
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
Not sure if anyone else had seen this, but I had not. Interesting
story.
----
Ford Opens Talks With China On Importing More North American Built
Cars 01/21 11:53 AM
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--A senior Ford Motor Co. (F:
$17.76,00$-0.1900,-1.06%) executive said Friday that it is in
preliminary talks with Chinese authorities that could pave the way for
it to export more North American-built vehicles to China's fast-
growing domestic market.
The company started selling Canadian-built Edge crossovers in China
earlier this month and said the initial sales response encouraged it
to push for more exports.
"We can't get enough of them in China," said Stephen Biegun, Ford's
vice president of international governmental affairs, of the Edge.
Biegun, speaking on the sidelines of a U.S.-China business conference
in Chicago, said Ford wants the Chinese government to exempt the
company's export models from a variety of domestic standards. This
would saving Ford from having to set up separate engineering and
production facilities for Chinese-bound vehicles.
Ford on Friday signed an agreement with China'sMinistry of Commerce as
a first step in the planned export push.
"What we're looking for is an accommodation to build the Chinese
vehicles to U.S. standards," Biegun said.
He declined to detail how many vehicles Ford hopes to export to China
Last year, Ford sold 530,000 vehicles in China, a 40% increase over
2009. Most of the vehicles were assembled in domestic plants.
"We're looking to complement our Chinese vehicles with vehicles from
the U.S.," Biegun said.
-By Bob Tita, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4129;
rober...@dowjones.com
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 10:08:45 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Hey tmalone~
I agree with the need to get and stay above $18.00.
While the decline this morning is deeper than I had expected, I am
still seeing it as part of a "normal" morning dip/morning buying
opportunity. That however, does not make me any happier.
> > hmmmm- Hide quoted text -
I agree with the need to get and stay above $18.00.
While the decline this morning is deeper than I had expected, I am
still seeing it as part of a "normal" morning dip/morning buying
opportunity. That however, does not make me any happier.
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 10:15:21 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Well, just my opinion of course but I think that after the last couple
of sessions, many shorts will cover - but overall I see little reason
why the broader market will draw buying enthusiasm until it settles
back further on the DJIA.
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
of sessions, many shorts will cover - but overall I see little reason
why the broader market will draw buying enthusiasm until it settles
back further on the DJIA.
£σҝі from Toronto
Jan 24, 2011, 10:18:40 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Hey edin:
Here's the short data since the beginning of the year:
Prev Short
date Close Open Close Volume Volume Short%
21-Jan-11 17.78 17.99 17.95 48,717,600 16,688,926 34.26
20-Jan-11 17.90 17.35 17.78 93,501,500 25,783,668 27.58
19-Jan-11 18.70 17.77 17.90 89,216,400 26,473,537 29.67
18-Jan-11 18.65 18.61 18.70 39,737,400 11,480,358 28.89
14-Jan-11 18.68 18.61 18.65 50,279,300 16,999,348 33.81
13-Jan-11 18.71 18.81 18.68 100,531,300 37,360,003 37.16
12-Jan-11 18.28 18.36 18.71 66,841,300 23,264,761 34.81
11-Jan-11 18.31 18.48 18.28 61,312,400 20,488,178 33.42
10-Jan-11 18.27 18.43 18.31 65,348,300 20,156,135 30.84
7-Jan-11 18.22 18.42 18.27 99,029,500 37,127,227 37.49
6-Jan-11 17.89 18.03 18.22 96,284,300 31,664,450 32.89
5-Jan-11 17.38 17.31 17.89 112,377,900 32,789,955 29.18
4-Jan-11 17.25 17.39 17.38 106,477,100 23,660,698 22.22
3-Jan-11 16.79 17.01 17.25 70,794,100 14,558,111 20.56
And your:
Here's the short data since the beginning of the year:
Prev Short
date Close Open Close Volume Volume Short%
21-Jan-11 17.78 17.99 17.95 48,717,600 16,688,926 34.26
20-Jan-11 17.90 17.35 17.78 93,501,500 25,783,668 27.58
19-Jan-11 18.70 17.77 17.90 89,216,400 26,473,537 29.67
18-Jan-11 18.65 18.61 18.70 39,737,400 11,480,358 28.89
14-Jan-11 18.68 18.61 18.65 50,279,300 16,999,348 33.81
13-Jan-11 18.71 18.81 18.68 100,531,300 37,360,003 37.16
12-Jan-11 18.28 18.36 18.71 66,841,300 23,264,761 34.81
11-Jan-11 18.31 18.48 18.28 61,312,400 20,488,178 33.42
10-Jan-11 18.27 18.43 18.31 65,348,300 20,156,135 30.84
7-Jan-11 18.22 18.42 18.27 99,029,500 37,127,227 37.49
6-Jan-11 17.89 18.03 18.22 96,284,300 31,664,450 32.89
5-Jan-11 17.38 17.31 17.89 112,377,900 32,789,955 29.18
4-Jan-11 17.25 17.39 17.38 106,477,100 23,660,698 22.22
3-Jan-11 16.79 17.01 17.25 70,794,100 14,558,111 20.56
And your:
"Kim Kardashian ?
but I like Chris Rocks line, about her- & dancing with the stars "its
a shame, all that Azz and doesnt know how to shake it"
That's hilarious.
but I like Chris Rocks line, about her- & dancing with the stars "its
a shame, all that Azz and doesnt know how to shake it"
MrBlonde
Jan 24, 2011, 10:19:11 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Edin-
New Explorer is out and is flying off the lots based on my
observations.
New Explorer is out and is flying off the lots based on my
observations.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 10:25:49 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Michael~
And I have learned to respect your view, but....
How about higher corporate earnings and INCREASING EMPLOYMENT!
Even signs of a turnaround in HOUSING.
Irrelevant?
And I have learned to respect your view, but....
How about higher corporate earnings and INCREASING EMPLOYMENT!
Even signs of a turnaround in HOUSING.
Irrelevant?
tmalone
Jan 24, 2011, 10:31:20 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
I bet a lot of 17.50 options got exercised after the close Friday, a
lot of people selling the shares today for a profit. May have
something to do with the lull. I agree, it's a bit of a longer and
deeper dip than I imagined for the day. But what the hey, it's early.
lot of people selling the shares today for a profit. May have
something to do with the lull. I agree, it's a bit of a longer and
deeper dip than I imagined for the day. But what the hey, it's early.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 10:36:02 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Think Tank & All~
Oh this hurts to even write it~
One hour in, F just traded for $17.77 with 13.6MM shares having
changed hands.
Oh this hurts to even write it~
One hour in, F just traded for $17.77 with 13.6MM shares having
changed hands.
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 11:21:51 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
The employment increase has not even been significant (.5% decrease in
the unemployment rate since this time last year?) and I certainly hope
earnings are increasing - but multiples at this point are too far
forward looking.
I give you NUE as an example: Steel manufacturer with a PE of over
70? No, not realistic.
If anything, the more likely thing to bring PE ratios more into line
this year will be higher inflation, not earnings.
the unemployment rate since this time last year?) and I certainly hope
earnings are increasing - but multiples at this point are too far
forward looking.
I give you NUE as an example: Steel manufacturer with a PE of over
70? No, not realistic.
If anything, the more likely thing to bring PE ratios more into line
this year will be higher inflation, not earnings.
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 11:26:33 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Re unemployment:
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?series_id=LNS14000000
so I don't see the big improvement, and this is based on EMPLOYMENT,
not actual earning power.
Losing your job as a mortgage broker and finding a new one working at
Wal Mart equals less buying power.
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?series_id=LNS14000000
so I don't see the big improvement, and this is based on EMPLOYMENT,
not actual earning power.
Losing your job as a mortgage broker and finding a new one working at
Wal Mart equals less buying power.
tmalone
Jan 24, 2011, 11:43:22 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
At this point, I'm not sure what to make of fords weakness relative to
the markets. A little worried, this should be a moving day for Ford,
its just in the wrong direction at the moment.
the markets. A little worried, this should be a moving day for Ford,
its just in the wrong direction at the moment.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 11:51:09 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Hey Michael~
Three comments about your labor market citation:
1) Your cited source notes for the most recent month it covers,
December 2010, a .4% of a percent decrease in unemployment from the
month prior. I do not see that as an insignificant number for a one
month change.
2) A number of reports since then have indicated accelerated hiring
and corresponding decline in unemployment.
3) The manufacturing sector has been reported as showing particular
strength.
The US is certainly not back to former state and progress has been
very painfully slow, but the trend now is unmistakenly positive. You
are, of course, correct in noting the impact of lower wage jobs, yet I
fear that you are underestimating the strength of the US economy.
Local media even reporting manufacturing jobs being shifted back to
Wisconsin manufacturing facilities from China! How "silly" is that!
Three comments about your labor market citation:
1) Your cited source notes for the most recent month it covers,
December 2010, a .4% of a percent decrease in unemployment from the
month prior. I do not see that as an insignificant number for a one
month change.
2) A number of reports since then have indicated accelerated hiring
and corresponding decline in unemployment.
3) The manufacturing sector has been reported as showing particular
strength.
The US is certainly not back to former state and progress has been
very painfully slow, but the trend now is unmistakenly positive. You
are, of course, correct in noting the impact of lower wage jobs, yet I
fear that you are underestimating the strength of the US economy.
Local media even reporting manufacturing jobs being shifted back to
Wisconsin manufacturing facilities from China! How "silly" is that!
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 11:54:24 AM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Hey tmalone,
I share your concern while still noting the significant improvement
form ealier.
Totally unsure of what to expect from the lunch-hour(s).
Optimistic about afternoon moves, but....
Yet with the DJIA up 80 pts.....
I share your concern while still noting the significant improvement
form ealier.
Totally unsure of what to expect from the lunch-hour(s).
Optimistic about afternoon moves, but....
Yet with the DJIA up 80 pts.....
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 12:11:06 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Also - when jobs are coming back here from China, you KNOW the wages
must be extremely low in comparison to cost of living.
must be extremely low in comparison to cost of living.
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 12:10:07 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Wij
Re 1) same source showed Apr 2010 at 9.8%, then by Jul 2010 showed
9.5% then back to 9.8% in Nov. So a change of .4% in a month's time
is something to note, but not a trend.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4
2) Again, I'd be interested in whether the avg American is getting
its buying power back along with his/her job. I have a feeling not.
3) What measurements are you using?
Overall, this is not about whether things are improving - they are -
but whether the forward view justifies some of the lofty forward
looking valuations in most stocks.
Re 1) same source showed Apr 2010 at 9.8%, then by Jul 2010 showed
9.5% then back to 9.8% in Nov. So a change of .4% in a month's time
is something to note, but not a trend.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4
2) Again, I'd be interested in whether the avg American is getting
its buying power back along with his/her job. I have a feeling not.
3) What measurements are you using?
Overall, this is not about whether things are improving - they are -
but whether the forward view justifies some of the lofty forward
looking valuations in most stocks.
notsorichbob
Jan 24, 2011, 12:07:58 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Just heard that GM is adding a third shift (later this year) at the
Flint truck assembly plant. I think they make Silverado's and SUV's
there. Not planning for a flat economy in 2011.
Flint truck assembly plant. I think they make Silverado's and SUV's
there. Not planning for a flat economy in 2011.
Ayahghi
Jan 24, 2011, 12:28:04 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Good morning, gentlemen. Gotluck, thanks for your opener.
Edin, your inputs on Atilla helped me see his influence less
mysteriously.
Re unemployment, I tend to agree with Michael; it won't be
significantly improved any time soon. I still believe decisive policy
response is needed for that. But Obama's new "competitiveness"
initiative, although business-friendly, I'm afraid, will not address
the problem.
Still, I think, this persistent unemployment problem is precisely that
which keeps the Fed interested in sustaining share prices, especially
in light of the expected weak housing recovery. Why? Because the Fed
is mandated to pursue maximum employment:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section2a.htm
But to increase employment, since the current weakness in the economy
is still on the demand side, not on the supply side, I believe that
the Fed cares about consumption levels and by extension equities. Why
equities? Because a large portion of American discretionary spending
comes from the owners of equities. According to this guy at Citigroup.
Tobias Levkovich, the top 20% of American income earners own 90% of
equities, and they account for 50% of discretionary spending.
Edin, your inputs on Atilla helped me see his influence less
mysteriously.
Re unemployment, I tend to agree with Michael; it won't be
significantly improved any time soon. I still believe decisive policy
response is needed for that. But Obama's new "competitiveness"
initiative, although business-friendly, I'm afraid, will not address
the problem.
Still, I think, this persistent unemployment problem is precisely that
which keeps the Fed interested in sustaining share prices, especially
in light of the expected weak housing recovery. Why? Because the Fed
is mandated to pursue maximum employment:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section2a.htm
But to increase employment, since the current weakness in the economy
is still on the demand side, not on the supply side, I believe that
the Fed cares about consumption levels and by extension equities. Why
equities? Because a large portion of American discretionary spending
comes from the owners of equities. According to this guy at Citigroup.
Tobias Levkovich, the top 20% of American income earners own 90% of
equities, and they account for 50% of discretionary spending.
Ayahghi
Jan 24, 2011, 12:44:45 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
>whether the forward view justifies some of the lofty forward looking valuations in most stocks
Measures for reasonable valuations such as Shiller PE Ratio may
suggest the current levels are too expensive, but according to this
guy, there is a statistical measure which suggests the current
valuations are still attractive although not so much as 6 months ago:
http://video.ft.com/v/755037316001/Sure-fire-buy-signal
frozen kiwifruit
Jan 24, 2011, 12:39:47 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Also - seasonal demand in Dec should have bumped the bottom line, but
as Michael points out these new jobs are not replacing the ones lost.
The Monster jobs index has stabilized for the last 6 months or so, and
is pretty much following seasonal trends. In otherwords, the jobs
situation seems to have stabilized, and it seems unlikely it will
improve greatly any time soon.
The difference between now and 20% ago is... well, its not 20% by any
stretch. I'm shorting companies with backwards P/E of 75 and higher,
and forwards P/E well above 20 (and these are not explosive growth
markets). And all of this on global companies that are reporting on a
USD that is 10% weaker than in July - this has a definite impact on
real return.
I'm back almost 100% short today, and feeling pretty good about it.
as Michael points out these new jobs are not replacing the ones lost.
The Monster jobs index has stabilized for the last 6 months or so, and
is pretty much following seasonal trends. In otherwords, the jobs
situation seems to have stabilized, and it seems unlikely it will
improve greatly any time soon.
The difference between now and 20% ago is... well, its not 20% by any
stretch. I'm shorting companies with backwards P/E of 75 and higher,
and forwards P/E well above 20 (and these are not explosive growth
markets). And all of this on global companies that are reporting on a
USD that is 10% weaker than in July - this has a definite impact on
real return.
I'm back almost 100% short today, and feeling pretty good about it.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 1:08:16 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Michael, frozen, & All~
Do not disagree that many stocks are carrying valuations that I
consider to be higher than can be reasonably justified.
I do not put F in that class, nor many other stocks.
I guess we must again agree to disagree about where the broader
economy is headed and what that means for equities.
Again, it seems that traders on this board are more inclined to be
bearish on the markets while investors, generally, seem to be
considerably more bullish.
Wonder how much of the difference in viewpoints for the two camps are
cause and how much effect.
Do not disagree that many stocks are carrying valuations that I
consider to be higher than can be reasonably justified.
I do not put F in that class, nor many other stocks.
I guess we must again agree to disagree about where the broader
economy is headed and what that means for equities.
Again, it seems that traders on this board are more inclined to be
bearish on the markets while investors, generally, seem to be
considerably more bullish.
Wonder how much of the difference in viewpoints for the two camps are
cause and how much effect.
notsorichbob
Jan 24, 2011, 1:37:29 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
2011 Hiring Plans Most Positive In More Than A Decade
WASHINGTON (AP) — Industry economists say the U.S. economic recovery
is gaining strength, with more firms expressing positive hiring plans
than in over a decade.
A new survey from the National Association for Business Economics
finds that economists are more hopeful about overall economic growth,
the job market and demand for companies' products and services by many
measures than they have been since the start of the Great Recession.
The survey found that business decisions are now "being driven by the
fundamentals of an improving economy," said Shawn DuBravac, an
economist with the Consumer Electronics Association who analyzed the
findings.
MORE:
http://www.impomag.com/scripts/ShowPR.asp?RID=16352&CommonCount=0
IMHO: You get a new job, you get a new car You do not want to look
like you are still unemployed. Remember when you put the box the
colour TV came in on the curb for your neighbours to see.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Industry economists say the U.S. economic recovery
is gaining strength, with more firms expressing positive hiring plans
than in over a decade.
A new survey from the National Association for Business Economics
finds that economists are more hopeful about overall economic growth,
the job market and demand for companies' products and services by many
measures than they have been since the start of the Great Recession.
The survey found that business decisions are now "being driven by the
fundamentals of an improving economy," said Shawn DuBravac, an
economist with the Consumer Electronics Association who analyzed the
findings.
MORE:
http://www.impomag.com/scripts/ShowPR.asp?RID=16352&CommonCount=0
IMHO: You get a new job, you get a new car You do not want to look
like you are still unemployed. Remember when you put the box the
colour TV came in on the curb for your neighbours to see.
frozen kiwifruit
Jan 24, 2011, 1:52:42 PM1/24/11
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Now 200% short - NVDA is just too tempting. 80% increase in Share
price? Not just dreaming - delusional.
price? Not just dreaming - delusional.
frozen kiwifruit
Jan 24, 2011, 1:53:32 PM1/24/11
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300%. Margin can be a terrible thing
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 1:53:40 PM1/24/11
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Hey notsorichbob~
Yes, but you are an investor type! Like you might want to hold a LONG
position!
Michael and frozen have also already seen the cite that you post. It
just doesn't COUNT for them.
Yes, but you are an investor type! Like you might want to hold a LONG
position!
Michael and frozen have also already seen the cite that you post. It
just doesn't COUNT for them.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 1:55:55 PM1/24/11
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Think Tank & All~
The move that MIGHT be the base for F's afternoon's rally, started a
little earlier than I had expected.
Wonder if....
> > colour TV came in on the curb for your neighbours to see.- Hide quoted text -
The move that MIGHT be the base for F's afternoon's rally, started a
little earlier than I had expected.
Wonder if....
Scalar
Jan 24, 2011, 2:12:58 PM1/24/11
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NVDA kicked my butt a few times today, i'm a little scared now. In
short now at 24.95 but only a few shares.
I was in long at 22.22 last Friday, would have been a nice one to hold
over the weekend.
Good luck with your 300% :)
short now at 24.95 but only a few shares.
I was in long at 22.22 last Friday, would have been a nice one to hold
over the weekend.
Good luck with your 300% :)
frozen kiwifruit
Jan 24, 2011, 2:43:12 PM1/24/11
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Everything counts though Wijram. Cherry-picking data sounds like an
excellent way to end up handing over your account.
That being said, I've lost a lot of confidence/respect for yer average
analyst.
I like the Monster Employment index. Not 100% translation to jobs -
but is a pretty nice indicator of real demand. I think its probably
weighted more to the skilled sector (so may not be as good for
manufacturing and hospitality for example), but has led jobs growth/
decline fairly effectively these last couple of years. I don't
disagree that we are better off than a year ago, but after a good bit
of looking we are totally failing to see the response to stimulation.
And from the long-term view (30+ years) current conditions are not all
that favorable. We are buying and trading things that are essentially
worthless without another buyer (although paying a dividend knocks
this concern down considerably - and I do believe this will happen
sooner or later). At this stage I think its very wise to keep mass
psychology in mind.
excellent way to end up handing over your account.
That being said, I've lost a lot of confidence/respect for yer average
analyst.
I like the Monster Employment index. Not 100% translation to jobs -
but is a pretty nice indicator of real demand. I think its probably
weighted more to the skilled sector (so may not be as good for
manufacturing and hospitality for example), but has led jobs growth/
decline fairly effectively these last couple of years. I don't
disagree that we are better off than a year ago, but after a good bit
of looking we are totally failing to see the response to stimulation.
And from the long-term view (30+ years) current conditions are not all
that favorable. We are buying and trading things that are essentially
worthless without another buyer (although paying a dividend knocks
this concern down considerably - and I do believe this will happen
sooner or later). At this stage I think its very wise to keep mass
psychology in mind.
£σҝі from Toronto
Jan 24, 2011, 2:44:42 PM1/24/11
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Of Fortune's 100 Best Companies to work for, here are the current
hiring requirements of the top 25 (those with the most number of
positions available). From these 25, that's 137,000 positions
currently available, although I certainly question the Accenture
number:
Boston Consulting Group—2,000 openings
Wegmans Food Markets—2,000 openings
NetApp—2,500 openings
Edward Jones—890 openings
Cisco—4,591 openings
Whole Foods Market—1,800 openings
Baptist Health South Florida—869 openings
American Express—1,813 openings
Intel—2,900+ openings
Mayo Clinic—800 openings
Deloitte—3,511 openings
Adobe Systems—1,000 openings
Publix Super Markets—1,590 openings
Marriott International—4,459 openings
Microsoft—6,338 openings
PricewaterhouseCoopers—9,144 openings
Nordstrom—3,663 openings
Ernst & Young—10,000 openings
CarMax—1,035 openings
Booz Allen Hamilton—700 current openings
KPMG—5,000 openings
CH2M Hill—719 openings
Darden Restaurants—3,600 openings
Starbucks—2,000+ openings
Accenture—64,000 openings
hiring requirements of the top 25 (those with the most number of
positions available). From these 25, that's 137,000 positions
currently available, although I certainly question the Accenture
number:
Boston Consulting Group—2,000 openings
Wegmans Food Markets—2,000 openings
NetApp—2,500 openings
Edward Jones—890 openings
Cisco—4,591 openings
Whole Foods Market—1,800 openings
Baptist Health South Florida—869 openings
American Express—1,813 openings
Intel—2,900+ openings
Mayo Clinic—800 openings
Deloitte—3,511 openings
Adobe Systems—1,000 openings
Publix Super Markets—1,590 openings
Marriott International—4,459 openings
Microsoft—6,338 openings
PricewaterhouseCoopers—9,144 openings
Nordstrom—3,663 openings
Ernst & Young—10,000 openings
CarMax—1,035 openings
Booz Allen Hamilton—700 current openings
KPMG—5,000 openings
CH2M Hill—719 openings
Darden Restaurants—3,600 openings
Starbucks—2,000+ openings
Accenture—64,000 openings
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 2:49:37 PM1/24/11
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Wij,
I'm not saying things are not improving - they will - but maybe not
fast enough or dramatically enough for another serious pullback to be
averted.
Frozen - NVDA seems very interesting. The run up is dramatic - what's
causing it? Something is pushing this stock... but on the face of it,
seems like an interesting short.
I opened a small position, will see what happens. 300% leverage?
Hmmm did that once, never again.
> > > colour TV came in on the curb for your neighbours to see.- Hide quoted text -
I'm not saying things are not improving - they will - but maybe not
fast enough or dramatically enough for another serious pullback to be
averted.
Frozen - NVDA seems very interesting. The run up is dramatic - what's
causing it? Something is pushing this stock... but on the face of it,
seems like an interesting short.
I opened a small position, will see what happens. 300% leverage?
Hmmm did that once, never again.
frozen kiwifruit
Jan 24, 2011, 2:47:55 PM1/24/11
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Yah, Thats a killer run its had. Insane. V. glad I closed friday.
Keeping my stops close now though :-). I'm not looking to hit this
one out of the park or anything, nor willing to risk sitting on the
wrong end of a move up. I go to 300% pretty frequently actually, but
try to avoid staying there overnight. I keep to the small moves
(10-50c here, hopefully) with that kind of leverage.
Keeping my stops close now though :-). I'm not looking to hit this
one out of the park or anything, nor willing to risk sitting on the
wrong end of a move up. I go to 300% pretty frequently actually, but
try to avoid staying there overnight. I keep to the small moves
(10-50c here, hopefully) with that kind of leverage.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 2:53:16 PM1/24/11
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Think Tank & All~
An interesting story. Is this trader a genius, and idiot, or in the
same boat we are in?
----
Schaeffer's Options Center
newer Schaeffer's Daily Option Blogolder Speculator Simulates Stock
Ownership Ahead of Earnings from Ford MotorAndrea Kramer (akramer@sir-
inc.com)
1/24/2011 2:11:39 PM
Ford Motor Company (F) is scheduled to appear in the earnings
confessional later this week, with the auto concern expected to report
its fourth-quarter figures before the opening bell on Friday.
Historically speaking, the Detroit diva has exceeded the Street's per-
share profit projections in each of the past four quarters, according
to Thomson Reuters. What's more, it appears one optimistic investor is
betting on another solid report by employing options to simulate stock
ownership on F.
Earlier today, the trader bought 10,000 February 19 calls for the ask
price of $0.27 apiece. Then, to fully fund his purchase, the
speculator simultaneously sold an equal amount of February 17 puts for
the same price. By implementing this strategy, the investor will make
money the further F rallies north of the $19 level before front-month
expiration, as the sold puts will expire worthless and the 19-strike
calls will gain intrinsic value. What's more, by writing the 17-strike
puts, the investor won't incur a loss as long as the shares remain
north of the $17 level in the short term.
From a broader sentiment standpoint, though, F is no stranger to
optimistic options traders – especially as of late. More specifically,
the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio on the International
Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)
sits at 5.40, indicating that traders have bought more than five F
calls for every put during the past two weeks. In fact, this ratio
ranks in the 86th annual percentile, suggesting that traders on the
exchanges have initiated bullish bets over bearish at a quicker pace
just 14% of the time during the past 52 weeks.
At last check, the shares of F have defied the broad-market trend into
the black, surrendering 0.2% to loiter in the $17.90 area.
----
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
An interesting story. Is this trader a genius, and idiot, or in the
same boat we are in?
----
Schaeffer's Options Center
newer Schaeffer's Daily Option Blogolder Speculator Simulates Stock
Ownership Ahead of Earnings from Ford MotorAndrea Kramer (akramer@sir-
inc.com)
1/24/2011 2:11:39 PM
Ford Motor Company (F) is scheduled to appear in the earnings
confessional later this week, with the auto concern expected to report
its fourth-quarter figures before the opening bell on Friday.
Historically speaking, the Detroit diva has exceeded the Street's per-
share profit projections in each of the past four quarters, according
to Thomson Reuters. What's more, it appears one optimistic investor is
betting on another solid report by employing options to simulate stock
ownership on F.
Earlier today, the trader bought 10,000 February 19 calls for the ask
price of $0.27 apiece. Then, to fully fund his purchase, the
speculator simultaneously sold an equal amount of February 17 puts for
the same price. By implementing this strategy, the investor will make
money the further F rallies north of the $19 level before front-month
expiration, as the sold puts will expire worthless and the 19-strike
calls will gain intrinsic value. What's more, by writing the 17-strike
puts, the investor won't incur a loss as long as the shares remain
north of the $17 level in the short term.
From a broader sentiment standpoint, though, F is no stranger to
optimistic options traders – especially as of late. More specifically,
the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio on the International
Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)
sits at 5.40, indicating that traders have bought more than five F
calls for every put during the past two weeks. In fact, this ratio
ranks in the 86th annual percentile, suggesting that traders on the
exchanges have initiated bullish bets over bearish at a quicker pace
just 14% of the time during the past 52 weeks.
At last check, the shares of F have defied the broad-market trend into
the black, surrendering 0.2% to loiter in the $17.90 area.
----
Message has been deleted
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 3:24:49 PM1/24/11
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Think Tank & All~
I like that language: "to loiter in the $17.90 area".
Don't like the fact that it has been true. Just like the language.
I like that language: "to loiter in the $17.90 area".
Don't like the fact that it has been true. Just like the language.
wijram
Jan 24, 2011, 3:21:03 PM1/24/11
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Think Tank & All~
With a tad under one hour left in regular-hours trading, and with the
DJIA UP 87 pts (.74%), F just traded at $17.95, the price at which it
closed yesterday. Total volume today is only 39.6MM shares.
Would expect the rally, if there will be one of substance, to start
within the next 15 minutes or so.
With a tad under one hour left in regular-hours trading, and with the
DJIA UP 87 pts (.74%), F just traded at $17.95, the price at which it
closed yesterday. Total volume today is only 39.6MM shares.
Would expect the rally, if there will be one of substance, to start
within the next 15 minutes or so.
Michael
Jan 24, 2011, 3:31:01 PM1/24/11
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Frozen - you may find it interesting to read "Fooled by Randomness" by
Nassim Taleb, if you haven't done so already.
> > Good luck with your 300% :)- Hide quoted text -
Nassim Taleb, if you haven't done so already.
£σҝі from Toronto
Jan 24, 2011, 3:50:15 PM1/24/11
to FORD TT Private Forum
Yeah - ranks right in there with "lollygagging in the $17.90
neighborhood" (that would be my words - lollygagging: Idly wasting
time, hanging around with no purpose) ☺
neighborhood" (that would be my words - lollygagging: Idly wasting
time, hanging around with no purpose) ☺
frozen kiwifruit
Jan 24, 2011, 4:09:34 PM1/24/11
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Thanks for the link Michael - it definately looks interesting. If
only I could see where in that distribution I stood, things would be
much much simpler. Similar to "The Invisible Gorrila" - is knowing
your blind any help when trying to see?
I saw NVDA is short covering squeeze. The article cited as the cause
of todays jump may make sense, but I just don't buy it as being that
effective. 12% in one day is a staggering squeeze, but I bet it was
heavily shorted after the last top. I think somebody just collected
the stops. The only problem with this thesis is that it doesn't
really look like a squeeze volume-wise (to my novice eye). Expected
it to tail off more EOD.
AMD going belly-up, or conceding the graphics market? Given the board
wanted to move the company away from desktops and into mobile, that
might make sense. Given the moves from AMD and INTC recently though
(gfx-on-chip), I see nVidia's market getting smaller, not larger.
Tegra is potential, but ARM is already pretty stiff competition
there. It got within a hairs breadth of its fib extension today from
its July-Oct drop (25.30, but %-wise thats pretty damn close). Be one
to watch again tomorrow, I thinks.
only I could see where in that distribution I stood, things would be
much much simpler. Similar to "The Invisible Gorrila" - is knowing
your blind any help when trying to see?
I saw NVDA is short covering squeeze. The article cited as the cause
of todays jump may make sense, but I just don't buy it as being that
effective. 12% in one day is a staggering squeeze, but I bet it was
heavily shorted after the last top. I think somebody just collected
the stops. The only problem with this thesis is that it doesn't
really look like a squeeze volume-wise (to my novice eye). Expected
it to tail off more EOD.
AMD going belly-up, or conceding the graphics market? Given the board
wanted to move the company away from desktops and into mobile, that
might make sense. Given the moves from AMD and INTC recently though
(gfx-on-chip), I see nVidia's market getting smaller, not larger.
Tegra is potential, but ARM is already pretty stiff competition
there. It got within a hairs breadth of its fib extension today from
its July-Oct drop (25.30, but %-wise thats pretty damn close). Be one
to watch again tomorrow, I thinks.
frozen kiwifruit
Jan 24, 2011, 4:12:13 PM1/24/11
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