Ford on Thursday, 16 May 2013

[notsorichbob]

05/15/13
Wednesday's Game
Player	John	Nsrb	Wjrm	Avg	Actual
Open	14.27	14.30	14.27	14.29	14.28
High	14.33	14.41	14.40	14.37	14.77
Low	14.15	14.18	14.11	14.17	14.27
Close	14.20	14.31	14.36	14.26	14.67
	1.04	0.83	0.85	0.94

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Markets up nicely! F just traded at $14.81. (Can we open with a
DOUBLE GAP UP?)

But there are a lot of reports due out today that will be influencing
this market (or not).

They include:

Consumer Price Index - @ 8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts - @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims - @ 8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index - @ 9:45 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey - @ 10:00 AM ET
----

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Jobless Claims HIGHER than expected!

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Jobless Claims
Released On 5/16/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk5/11, 2013
Prior
Prior Revsd Cons Cons Range Actl
New Claims 323K 328K 330K 329K-341K 360K
----

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Housing Starts Disappoint!

----
Housing Starts


Released On 5/16/2013 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2013
Prior
Prior Revisd Consen Consens Range Actual
Starts 1.036M 1.021M 0.969M 0.930M-1.000M 0.853M
Permits 0.902M 0.890M 0.945M 0.916M-0.980M 1.017M

Market Consensus before announcement
Housing starts were unexpectedly strong in March but it was all in
the multifamily family component. And overall permits slipped,
indicating that the housing recovery may be softening despite the
strong headline number for starts. In March, housing starts jumped 7.0
percent after a 7.3 percent gain the month before. The March starts
annualized level of 1.036 million was up 46.7 percent on a year-ago
basis. The increase in starts was led by a monthly 31.1 percent
increase in the multifamily component after an 11.2 percent boost in
February. The single-family component decreased 4.8 percent after
rising 5.5 percent in February. Permits fell back, declining 3.9
percent to an annual pace of 0.902 million units.

----

[notsorichbob]

O  -  14.77
H  -  14.87
L  -  14.52
C  -  14.71

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

On the other hand, inflation is certainly NOT an issue!

----
Consumer Price Index

Released On 5/16/2013 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2013

Prior Cons Consens Rng Actual
CPI - M/M change -0.2% -0.3% -0.4%to0.1% -0.4 %
CPI less fd&engy 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%to0.2% 0.1 %

Highlights
Headline inflation continues downward but the core rate remains on a
moderate upward trend but below the Fed's target rate. The consumer
price index for April fell 0.4 percent after declining 0.2 percent in
March. April's rate came in below market expectations for a decrease
of 0.3 percent. The core CPI-excluding food and energy was soft,
matching the March rate of 0.1 percent. Analysts forecasted a 0.2
percent gain.

By major components outside the core, energy fell 4.3 percent,
following a drop of 2.6 percent in March. Gasoline decreased 8.1
percent, following a decline of 4.4 percent. The food component rose
0.2 percent after no change in March.

On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline CPI in April was up 1.1
percent and the core was up 1.7 percent.

----

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Those economic reports hurt, but F is at GAP UP. Just traded at ...
Opps, $14.75!

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

DJIA Futures now DOWN 13 pts and S&P are DOWN 2.75 pts.

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Here is a different presentation of the numbers that nsrb reported for
yesterday's game. (Sorry for any misalignments!

Player John Nsrb Wjrm Avg Actual

Open 14.27* 14.30 14.27 14.29 14.28
High 14.33 14.41* 14.40 14.37 14.77
Low 14.15 14.18* 14.11 14.17 14.27
Close 14.20 14.31 14.36* 14.26 14.67
1.04 0.83* 0.85 0.94

Methinks nsrb was being modest by not noting that he was the winner
for the day with the best predictions for HIGH and LOW as well as
having the lowest total variance.

My early numbers for today follow. Will almost certainly revise
before the OPEN.

O: $14.76
H: $14.89
L: $14.63
C: $14.75
----

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

Found this story interesting as an indicator of the general US
economy!

----
Restaurants Sales Hit New High as Recession Fades

Published: Thursday, 16 May 2013 | 7:53 AM ETBy: Amy Langfield, NBC
News

Americans seem to be fed up with frugality.

As the recession ever so slowly recedes, an increasing number of
Americans say they are less frugal than they were a few years ago. At
the same time, sales at restaurants are at an all-time high and at
least one survey says consumers expect to spend more eating out as
soon as their pocketbooks allow.

Sales at eating and drinking places in April reached $45.9 billion, a
$200 million seasonally-adjusted increase from the previous high in
December 2012, according to preliminary figures from the U.S. Census
Bureau.

"Last month was a shock," said Ryan Lowder, the chef and owner of the
Copper Onion in Salt Lake City, where his sales were up 20 percent
over April of 2012. "The increase last month was killer. I'm not
complaining."

Lowder said some of April's boost was likely due to better weather in
Utah, but he's also seen a trend in more spending overall, especially
on alcohol. "We sell a $40 pinot and $60 bottle of Pinot. We're
selling more of the $60 Pinot. We're seeing an increase," he told NBC
News.

The Copper Onion was not alone in posting great numbers for April.

"After totaling nearly $45.7 billion in December, eating and drinking
place sales were dampened somewhat during the first three months of
2013, likely due in part to the impact of the payroll tax hike," the
National Restaurant Association's Chief Economist Bruce Grindy wrote
in his analysis of the numbers. Sales have steadily increased since
dipping to $45.2 billion in February. Those numbers are expected to
continue rising, according the restaurant group's own survey.

----

[in...@eagleconnector.com]

Guys - I went to cash yesterday.  Done well with F and think F has much further to go.  But frightened the general markets will correct soon and take F for al least some of the ride.

 

I will be back in F when my confidence returns.  Would rather error exiting too soon.

 

Good fortunes!

 

Numbers for today:

 

O - $14.78

H - $14.89

L - $14.62

C - $14.82

 

John

[wijram]

Think Tank & All~

My REVISED numbers for today:

O: $14.76
H: $14.89
L: $14.63

C: $14.72

[wijram]

Hey John~

Understand completely!!! As noted yesterday, I also sold (a pretty
big hunk of Jan 2014 calls with the intent of rolling to Jan 2015s.

'Twas a mistake, but the money is in the bank!

No one can ever complain about that!

Looking for opportunity to get back in REAL soon, despite my fears
about general economy, here and in Europe.



On May 16, 7:29 am, "in...@eagleconnector.com"

[wijram]

Hey John~

F in free-fall.

We may get our chance yet today if not tomorrow!