e-CARD: Press Release - 20 April 2009 (English Version)
FORBES Damai Aceh
Message forwarded from e-CARD
==========================
Press Release
April 20, 2009
e-CARD
Community for Aceh Resources Development
ACEH PARTY PROJECTED TO WIN
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VOTER TURNOUT
Based on an independent verification of the vote count results of the Aceh provincial legislative council (Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Aceh or DPRA) on the legislative election held on April 9, 2009, Aceh Party is projected to win in the majority of polling stations with 43.8% of the votes. Other projected percentages include the Democratic Party with 14.3%, followed by the Golkar Party with 6.6%, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 3.8%, the National Mandate Party (PAN) with 3.4%, and the United Development Party (PPP) with 3%. These numbers are based on the Sample Based Observation (SBO) that was conducted by e-CARD with technical assistance from the National Democratic Institute (NDI).
Compared with the national projection of voter turnout from various quick counts (72%), voter turnout in Aceh was relatively high at 77.7%. However, this number is relatively lower compared to the 85% voter turnout in the 2006 Aceh Gubernatorial election.
Changes in the electoral system regulations, ballot paper format, and voting methods increased the number of invalid votes compared to the Aceh Gubernatorial Election. The number of invalid votes in this election almost tripled, reaching 9.3%, compared to the 2006 Gubernatorial election rate of 3.5% and the National Legislative Election rate of 2.5%.
In this election, the majority of Aceh Party supporters (57%) voted only for the party. On the other hand, a majority of other party supporters voted for that party’s candidates. For example, the majority of Golkar Party supporters (76%) voted for Golkar legislative candidates.
The above findings are based on the data received from a Sample Based Observation (SBO) in 576 polling stations in 23 districts/ cities in Aceh. These polling stations were randomly selected using a statistical methodology (cluster random sampling) that is internationally accepted and always proven accurate, including in several local elections in Indonesia, particularly the 2006 Aceh Gubernatorial Election. The margin of error in this SBO is +/- 1.9% with a confidence level of 95%.
For further information please contact:
Elly Sufriadi/ Executive Director e-CARD (+62 812 698 79029)
Table 1. Projected Election Results By Party Based on
e-CARD’s Sample Based Observation (SBO)
|
No. |
Political Party |
Projection |
Margin of error |
Lowest range |
Highest range |
|
1 |
Hanura |
1.5% |
0.2% |
1.3% |
1.7% |
|
2 |
PKPB |
0.8% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
3 |
PPPI |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
4 |
PPRN |
0.8% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
5 |
Gerindra |
1.4% |
0.2% |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
6 |
Barnas |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
PKPI |
1.4% |
0.2% |
1.2% |
1.7% |
|
8 |
PKS |
3.8% |
0.3% |
3.5% |
4.2% |
|
9 |
PAN |
3.4% |
0.3% |
3.1% |
3.6% |
|
10 |
PPIB |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
Partai Kedaulatan |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
12 |
PPD |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
13 |
PKB |
1.3% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
14 |
PPI |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
15 |
PNI Marhaenisme |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
16 |
PDP |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
PKP |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
PMB |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
PPDI |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
PDK |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
PRN |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
Partai Pelopor |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
Partai Golkar |
6.6% |
0.7% |
5.9% |
7.3% |
|
24 |
PPP |
3.0% |
0.2% |
2.8% |
3.2% |
|
25 |
PDS |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
PNBK |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
PBB |
1.4% |
0.2% |
1.2% |
1.6% |
|
28 |
PDIP |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
29 |
PBR |
1.5% |
0.2% |
1.3% |
1.7% |
|
30 |
Partai Patriot |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
31 |
PD |
14.3% |
0.7% |
13.6% |
15.0% |
|
32 |
PKDI |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
33 |
PIS |
0.3% |
0.1% |
[Message clipped]
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----
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Kompleks Taman Ratu Safiatuddin No. 1, Lampriek, Banda Aceh
Phone: +62 651 755 1604
Fax: +62 651 755 1605
Email: in...@bra-aceh.org
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