Risk Management

[Richard Chivers]

Does anyone have any literature that would help me get a bearing on what incidence of a food safety hazard is acceptable. For example 1:500,000, or 1:5,000,000

I assume units per annum will also be a determining factor. So, if my client turned out 50,000 units per year and the chance of it occurring were 1:500,000, then it would be a chance once every ten years but if they produced 10 million p.a. there would be two occurrences per year.

All help gratefully received.

Kind regards,

Richard

[Carl Custer]

Depends on the severity of the hazard. Swiss Army Knife vs AK 47; STEC
vs Listeria innocua; matrix: Ice cream vs lettuce. "How lucky do you
feel . . ."
Several decades ago, Lester Crawford said that when he was at FDA they
opined that "one in a million" seemed about right. But in the
following decades more objective approaches have been published.
Here's one:
Coleman, M. , Elkins, C. , Gutting, B. , Mongodin, E. , Solano
Aguilar, G. and Walls, I. (2018), Microbiota and Dose Response:
Evolving Paradigm of Health Triangle. Risk Analysis, 38: 2013-2028.
doi:10.1111/risa.13121

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