Crystal Gazing, Population Growth, Policy Making and Western Scientists

[Nagarjuna]

Dear All,
1. For those of us who are interested in global and South East Asian
food policy and its complex interactions with globalization, neo
colonialism, lokvidya and its insistence on standpoint on knowledge
question, political economy and the rising aspirations of growing
population in South Asia, this paper by UK chief scientific adviser
may be of interest.
2. This paper also focuses on what the bureaucracy laden European
Union is expecting from the new Obama administration and the impact
that an Afro-American of mixed race may have in terms of regional
Asian issues and South Asian security.
How far Obama will oblige Europe and Russia is yet to play out but
Obama has seemingly decided that China is THE MOST MAJOR PLAYER as it
holds the magic keys to lifting US out of a painful and prolonged
recession, at the end of the era of laissez faire, world capitalism,
post Russian perestroika.
3. In this context, it may also be worthwile to consider that India,
with its trio of pro globalization IMF economists turned politicians,
now occupies the role of the largest arms purchaser in the world, and
after 26/11 is the major focus for Obama intelligence chiefs.
Af-Pak may just turn out to be a smoke screen.
Maybe this is the most pertinent defining characteristic of the
ManMohan Singh government as it heads into the 2009 elections.
The country has been taken into a tight corner of value free political
economy whose bill will be paid by common Indians.
4. Those who have earlier read the book Asian Drama by Gunnar Myrdal
- "An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations" may like to note where
Beddington is coming from - "Before taking over from Sir David King as
chief scientist last year, Beddington was professor of applied
population biology at Imperial College London. He is an expert on the
sustainable use of renewable resources."
Regards,
Nagarjuna
Editor - Indian Food Policy
www.foodpolicy.in

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From Guardian :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/mar/18/perfect-storm-john-beddington-energy-food-climate

A "perfect storm" of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient
energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border
conflicts and mass migration as people flee from the worst-affected
regions, the UK government's chief scientist will warn tomorrow.

In a major speech to environmental groups and politicians, Professor
John Beddington, who took up the position of chief scientific adviser
last year, will say that the world is heading for major upheavals
which are due to come to a head in 2030.

He will tell the government's Sustainable Development UK conference in
Westminster that the growing population and success in alleviating
poverty in developing countries will trigger a surge in demand for
food, water and energy over the next two decades, at a time when
governments must also make major progress in combating climate change.

"We head into a perfect storm in 2030, because all of these things are
operating on the same time frame," Beddington told the Guardian.

"If we don't address this, we can expect major destabilisation, an
increase in rioting and potentially significant problems with
international migration, as people move out to avoid food and water
shortages," he added.

Food prices for major crops such as wheat and maize have recently
settled after a sharp rise last year when production failed to keep up
with demand. But according to Beddington, global food reserves are so
low – at 14% of annual consumption – a major drought or flood could
see prices rapidly escalate again. The majority of the food reserve is
grain that is in transit between shipping ports, he said.

"Our food reserves are at a 50-year low, but by 2030 we need to be
producing 50% more food. At the same time, we will need 50% more
energy, and 30% more fresh water.

"There are dramatic problems out there, particularly with water and
food, but energy also, and they are all intimately connected,"
Beddington said. "You can't think about dealing with one without
considering the others. We must deal with all of these together."

Before taking over from Sir David King as chief scientist last year,
Beddington was professor of applied population biology at Imperial
College London. He is an expert on the sustainable use of renewable
resources.

In Britain, a global food shortage would drive up import costs and
make food more expensive. Some parts of the country are predicted to
become less able to grow crops as higher temperatures become the norm.
Most climate models suggest the south-east of England will be
especially vulnerable to water shortages, particularly in the summer.

The speech will add to pressure on governments following last week's
climate change conference in Copenhagen, where scientists warned that
the impact of global warming has been substantially underestimated by
the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The latest
research suggests that sea level rises, glacier melting and the risk
of forest fires are at, or beyond, what was considered the worst case
scenario in 2007.

Beddington said that shifts in the climate will see northern Europe
and other high-latitude regions become key centres for food
production. Other more traditional farming nations will have to
develop more advanced pesticides or more hardy crops to boost yields,
he said. In some countries, almost half of all crops are lost to pests
and disease before they are harvested. Substantial amounts of food are
lost after haversting, too, because of insufficient storage
facilities.

Beddington said a major technological push is needed to develop
renewable energy supplies, boost crop yields and better utilise
existing water supplies.

Looming water shortages in China have prompted officials to build 59
new reservoirs to catch meltwater from mountain glaciers, which will
be circulated into the water supply.

Beddington will use the speech to urge Europe to involve independent
scientists more directly in its policy making, using recent
appointments by President Barack Obama in the US as an example of how
senior scientists have been brought into the political fold. Shortly
after taking office, Obama announced what many see as a "dream team"
of scientists, including two Nobel laureates, to advise on science,
energy and the environment.