I think I figured out the problem. And it was totally my fault :(
When I ran strace against td-agent, starting it as a subprocess rather than attaching to existing process, I saw the following output:
[root@log-relay-l-prod td-agent]# strace -o new.strace -f /opt/td-agent/embedded/bin/ruby /usr/sbin/td-agent --log /var/log/td-agent/td-agent.log --use-v1-config -vv --group root
/opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:214:in `eval': /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:214: syntax error, unexpected ')', expecting tSTRING_DEND (SyntaxError)
...y? ) ? short_message : "empty")}"
... ^
/opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:214: unterminated string meets end of file
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:214:in `expand'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:123:in `expand_placeholders'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:127:in `block in expand_placeholders'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:126:in `each_pair'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:126:in `expand_placeholders'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:115:in `reform'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:84:in `block in filter_stream'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/event.rb:147:in `feed_each'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/event.rb:147:in `each'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/filter_record_transformer.rb:82:in `filter_stream'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/event_router.rb:150:in `block in emit'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/event_router.rb:149:in `each'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/event_router.rb:149:in `emit'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/event_router.rb:88:in `emit_stream'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:147:in `on_message'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:243:in `call'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:243:in `block in on_read_msgpack'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:242:in `feed_each'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:242:in `on_read_msgpack'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:228:in `call'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:228:in `on_read'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/cool.io-1.3.0/lib/
cool.io/io.rb:123:in `on_readable'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/cool.io-1.3.0/lib/
cool.io/io.rb:186:in `on_readable'
from /opt/td-agent/embedded/lib/ruby/gems/2.1.0/gems/fluentd-0.12.12/lib/fluent/plugin/in_forward.rb:91:in `run'
[root@log-relay-l-prod td-agent]# less /etc/td-agent/config.d/