Bull-Markets och Bear-Markets
sca...@yahoo.com
70, 80, 90 och 2000 talet. Ganska intressant att titta tillbaka på
tidigare Bull och Bear-markets vilket kanske kan ge en fingervisning i
hur lång tid pågående Bull och Bear-markets kan fortsätta. Vilka
egenskaper dom brukar ha osv. Det sägs att historien brukar repetera
sig själv. Några tydliga tendenser är iaf att en Bull-market brukar
pågå under mycket kortare tid än en Bear-market. Ofta mellan 8-10
år. Bull-markets börjar sakta och accellererar mot slutet med en
"price spike" Bubbla. Här talas det ofta om ett brett allmänt
deltagande mot slutet med orimliga priser utan verklighetsförankring.
En Bear-market varar oftast längre och tar spekulations objektet från
en skyhög värdering till en undervärdering under en mycket lång
tid. Ofta mellan 15-20 år
några exempel:
USA börserna steg kraftigt mellan 20-30 talet, upp ca 10 år och
avslutade med en jätte krasch som drog ut på tiden och det visade sig
ta ca 20-25 år innan USA börserna började en ny uppgångsfas.
commodities gick genom en bull-market som varade ca 8-10 år mellan
70-80 talet. Därefter följde en commodities bear-market i ca 20 år
från ca 1980-2001. Därefter vände det och för närvarande är vi
mitt i en commodities bull-market som hittills har pågått ca 5 år.
Mellan 80-90 talet var det i Japanska aktier och fastigheter som det
pågick en Bull-market. 1990 kraschade Japan och därefter pågick en
Bear-market fram till 2003 då Nikkei index vände och började
klättra. Alltså Bull-market i ca 10 år och Bear-market i ca 13 år.
Mellan 90-2000 var det i amerikanska aktier, IT mm som det pågick en
Bull-market. Nasdaq mm steg kraftigt tills kraschen kom kring 2000.
Därefter har USA och amerikanska börsarna gått knackigt. Kommer det
att gå knackigt för USA börserna i 15 år till? Mycket talar för
det. Bland annat USA´s handelsunderskott, inflation, skulder,
bostadsbubblor mm.
Utklipp från Puru Saxana, ett investerings brev som jag prenumenerar
på där han skriver om ämnet.
As an avid student of economic
history, I have realised that all assets go through
multi-year economic cycles commonly known as
bull-markets (boom) and bear-markets (busts).
These cycles surely follow each other as night
follows the day. During a bull-market, an asset
goes from depths of undervaluation to
overvaluation. A bull-market usually ends with
intense public participation, optimism and
euphoria. On the other hand, a bear-market takes
an asset on its long journey from extreme
overvaluation to acute undervaluation. A bearmarket
usually ends with "blood on the street" or
deep, dark despair. As a money manager, it is my
job to identify, which assets are in a bull-market
and those that are in a bear phase.
Looking back at history, it is now easy to see that
if the above investor had to buy one asset in 1970
for the next 10 years, he should have bought
commodities. For those who are not familiar,
commodities went through an enormous boom
during this period. Supply conditions were
extremely tight, demand was rising and we also
had the "Oil Shocks", which led oil to its all timehigh in 1980.
During that period, the US economy
was in a recession, inflation fears were running
high and interest-rates were rising fast. The whole
world was convinced that inflation would continue
to escalate and that savings would eventually
become worthless. Thus, everyone turned to hard,
tangible assets to protect their wealth. The boom,
which started off as a gradual bull-market (as they
all do) erupted into an enormous mania in the late
70's as investors kept piling their cash in
commodities whilst completely ignoring the prices
they were paying. During the 70's, several
commodities went up through the roof. Sugar went
from 1.4 cents/pound in 1966 to 66 cents/pound in
1974 - a staggering rise of 45 times! Oil went from
$2/barrel in 1973 to over $30 in 1980 and gold
went from $35/ounce in 1971 to over $850/ounce
in January 1980! Looking at the statistics now,
commodities were an obvious choice in the 1970's
but hindsight is always 20/20.
If our investor friend was looking for one
investment theme in 1980 for the next 10 years, he
should have bought Japanese stocks and realestate.
During that period, Japanese assets soared
exponentially as the world became amazed by the
"Japanese miracle". Money kept pouring in from
around the world and the Japanese stock-market
index (NIKKEI) rose from 6,500 in 1980 to 38,915
in December 1989. The future looked obvious:
Japan's hardworking and focused society seemed
unstoppable. In the 1980's, the Japanese economy
was a sensation - the most dynamic economy the
world had ever seen. Meanwhile, Japanese realestate
also surged. At the peak of the bubble in
1990, Japanese real-estate was worth four times the
value of all property in the US! The Imperial
Palace in Tokyo and the nearby park were valued
more than the whole of Canada! So, it is obvious
now that the land of the rising sun would have been
the best option for investment purposes in 1980.
Let us now turn to the next decade - the roaring
1990's. During that period, our investor should
have put all his money in American assets. During
that period, the world's super-power came alive as
the world fell in love with the US. As many will
remember, the last decade saw the exponential rise
of the American stock-market led by the
NASDAQ. Stocks, bonds and real-estate soared as
inflation was low and interest-rates were falling. In
the 90's, you just could not go wrong. All you had
to do was to buy any American asset and the bullmarket
would have done the work for you. The
technology-heavy NASDAQ rose from almost 500
in 1990 to over 5,000 at the turn of the millennium.
Everyone was convinced that the "New Era" had
arrived. Companies like Amazon, Cisco Systems
and Yahoo became the technology darlings of the
investment world. Locally, people standing in
queues for Tom.com and Sunday IPO's come to
mind. Looking back, it is obvious now that
America would have been the best investment
destination in the 1990's.
After having gone through the various asset-booms
of the past three decades, I would like to point out
that they all had one thing in common - the
eventual bust. Commodities peaked in 1980 and
declined for two decades; Japanese assets peaked
around 1990 and are still deflating after fifteen
years; NASDAQ collapsed in 2000 and despite
record-low interest rates, American stocks have
failed to better their all-time highs recorded five
years ago. The brutal truth is that no asset-class
goes up or stays depressed forever. This is one fact
that every investor must keep in mind when
speculating or buying for the long haul. Our history
is dotted with several "New Eras" and "Economic
Miracles", which were supposed to change our
world forever - American canal systems and the
railroad boom in the 19th century, the auto boom at
the turn of the 20th century, the commodity boom
in the 70's, the Japanese boom in the 80's and the
technology boom of the 90's. Yet, none of these
booms lasted forever. The current housing boom
will be no exception.
So, let us address the original question - "which
asset-class will boom over the coming decade? I
am of the opinion that commodities will prove to
be the best performing asset-class. Therefore, our
investor above should park all his funds in
commodities and when he returns in ten years time,
he should be sitting on a huge profit. Why have I
chosen commodities out of all the assets? For the
simple reason that in 2001, commodities were the
cheapest they had ever been in the history or
capitalism. The commodities bear-market (1980-
2001), which lasted two decades, ended up wiping
out a large number of businesses involved in their
production. Declining commodity prices and
increasing costs forced the marginal companies to
either close down or look for alternatives. This
resulted in tightening supplies worldwide.
Let us take a look at the most important
commodity - oil. Over the past 35 years, there has
not been a single major oil discovery anywhere in
the world! Global production is peaking and there
is no additional supply. Meanwhile, demand for oil
continues to rise especially in the emerging world
where populations are huge and percapita consumption
of oil is still extremely low. As global demand rises
and supply remains tight, oil prices will continue to surge.
Similar supply-demand patterns can be seen across
the majority of commodities. As China and India
become more prosperous over the coming years,
their demand for food, clothing, housing and
energy will increase significantly resulting in
higher prices.
"EDIBLE" OPPORTUNITY - So far, industrial
commodities such as metals and energy have done
exceptionally well. However, agricultural
commodities such as sugar, corn, wheat and orange
juice haven't gone up as much and are still close to
their all-time lows adjusted for inflation. Over the
coming 18-24 months, I expect agricultural
commodities to provide the best returns.
Min Slutsats och en massa funderingar kring ämnet:
1* Allt som går upp kommer också ner till slut.
2* En långsiktig placering ska kanske inte vara längre än 10 år då
det finns
risk att man också får åka neråt därefter, finns säkert undantag
men allt verkar
krascha till slut.
3* Vi har varit med om ca 5 år av en råvaru Bull-Market som kan komma
att
fortsätta i flera år till. Kommer den att pågå i 1, 3 eller 5 år
till ?
4* Kommer den att accellerera mot slutet som IT gjorde 1999 ?
Och isf vad kommer olja att kosta om några år? 200$ ?? 300$ ?
Vad kommer socker, soybeans, corn och uran att kosta ?
Kan socker knäcka ATH på ca 65$, Kommer Uran upp över 500$ som en
del tror?
typ Dines mfler.
5* Vilka signaler ska vi se upp för när vi närmar oss toppen?
P/E tal på flera hundra? Där verkar vi inte vara än. Många
oljebolag, råvaruföretag verkar inte övervärderade än. Bred
allmän deltagande ? Jag har hört konversationer där oinsatta
investerare, vanligt folk har diskuterat oljepriset och
investeringsalternativ. Det skrämmer mig lite måste jag säga.
6* Kommer USA marknaden att gå dåligt i 10-15 år till ? Finns många
orosmoment därborta, inflation, bostadsbubbla, handelsunderskott,
skulder, oljepriset, guldpriset stiger, ett tecken på oro, Men hur
mycket kan guldpriset stiga? Har läst dom som tror
på bortåt 2000$/ounce
Och hur påverkas vi i Sverige och Europa av USA vid en krasch eller
fortsatt nedgång?
7* Har Japan kommit ut ur sin Bear-Market på riktigt. Nikkei ^225 har
stigit från botten på ca 7600 punkter till 15800 där den är idag.
kommer den att fortsätta uppåt eller gå sidledes härifrån?
8* Andra marknader, Kina, Indien, Ryssland. Man kan nästan tro att det
pågår en Bull-market här också, men vart befinner sig dessa på
Bull-Market stigen? Ryssland som är stor inom råvaror, gas och olja
kanske är på 5te året också men hur länge kan Kina och Indien
stiga ?
Blev ett långt inlägg det här, kom gärna med kommentarer och
åsikter
mvh