|
|
Good morning.
Nike is back on track after a gap that seemingly rivaled sprinter Betty Robinson’s eight years between Olympic medals. The iconic sportswear brand suffered a run of weak quarters, leading to a bloated inventory backlog. At the same time, a direct-to-consumer pivot backfired badly, damaging relationships with Foot Locker, Dick’s and other retailers.
But on Wednesday, Nike posted a surprise 1% increase in sales to $11.72 billion in its latest quarterly report. Decisions to shift the company’s focus back to core sports over casual footwear and fashion, as well as rebuild retailer ties, appear to be paying dividends. Tariffs, however, are now expected to cost Nike a larger-than-expected $1.5 billion this fiscal year, up from an earlier forecast of $1 billion, and put pressure on profit margins. In other words, executives still have some sole-searching to do. |
|
|
|
|
|
*Presented by VanEck. Stock data as of market close on October 1, 2025. |
|
*Please see important SMH disclosures below. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
With a post-pandemic stallout far in the rearview mirror, Carvana is finally locked into top gear.
Shares of the online used car dealer — already up some 90% year-to-date — popped even more on Wednesday after Jefferies analysts upgraded its stock rating to buy from hold.
Drive to Survive
2025 has proven a long, winding road for the car vending machine operator. The year began with
a scathing research report from the now-closed short-selling hedge fund Hindenburg Research, which alleged serious accounting fraud. Then came the Liberation Day tariffs just a couple of months later, sending the entire auto industry into a tailspin. But through it all, Carvana has managed to cruise by. In its first-quarter earnings report, the company posted record car sales (133,898), record revenue ($4.2 billion), and record net income ($373 million). In its second quarter, during which the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on car imports and 25% tariffs on used car parts, Carvana again set records for
car sales and revenue, although it also recorded a slight dip in profitability.
Having overcome multiple shocks, Carvana stock now trades higher than its pandemic-era peak, at $395 a pop. According to Jefferies, there’s still plenty of road ahead to rev up even more:
-
Carvana currently holds only a 2% share of the used car sales market, according to Jefferies, but it’s well positioned to benefit from increasing shifts in consumer buying behavior. Just 5% of used car sales are fully completed online rather than at physical dealerships, according to a recent report from tech consulting firm Altman Solon. A Jefferies survey, however, found 33% of US adults would prefer to buy a used car online if prices were equal.
-
For Carvana, closing the gap will require increasing inventory. Jefferies said the company is already moving to do so, highlighting Carvana’s upgrades to its reconditioning facilities, which prepare used cars for resale, as well as a web scrape that showed its current quarter should mark the third straight period of year-over-year unit sales growth of over 40%.
Hertz, Still Trying Hard: By 2035, Jefferies says Carvana could have a 10% foothold in the $800 billion used car sales market. They’ll have some more competition. After announcing a partnership to sell used cars on Amazon last month, Hertz on Tuesday said that it will now allow customers to complete the entire used car buying process online.
Written by Brian Boyle |
|
|
|
|
|
ETFs aren’t just growing; they’re reshaping how everyday investors build wealth. With record fund flows and more choices than ever, how do you separate real opportunities from the noise?
That’s why we created
ETF Upside, your go-to source for deep-dive analysis on the most important trends shaping the world of exchange-traded funds.
Every Monday and Wednesday,
ETF Upside delivers timely insights and actionable takeaways to help you make smarter investment decisions, whether you’re an individual investor, an advisor or part of an institutional team.
Don’t miss out. Subscribe today and unlock exclusive insights that can transform your approach to ETFs.
 |
|
|
|
|
The Trump administration
reportedly plans to keep most national parks open during the government shutdown. That means Americans can still enjoy viewing the annual deciduous kaleidoscope of red, yellow, umber and orange in the autumn foliage of the country’s most storied wilderness preserves.
The view for economists, investors and Federal Reserve officials, on the other hand, will be at least partially obstructed amid a data blackout. Notably, that means the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report is now unlikely to be published on Friday. That lent outsized weight on Wednesday to payroll provider ADP’s monthly private sector jobs
report: It augurs well for a rate cut, though not so much for the labor market.
Data Backup
There are no immediate dramatic risks to equity markets from the shutdown, experts have said. “Back in the 70s/80s, shutdowns resulted in poor market reactions,” John Luke Tyner, Aptus Capital Advisors’ head of fixed income, noted on Wednesday. “However, since 1995, the S&P 500 has finished higher during every shutdown.” He added that, because this is a “partial shutdown” due to a failure to pass the budget, rather than a standoff over the debt ceiling, it is “less worrisome for markets given there is no default risk.” To that end, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% Wednesday.
What is at risk is data that investors and policymakers rely on to make decisions. According to ADP’s latest report, the labor market isn’t doing so hot. Private payroll employment fell by 32,000 in September, significantly below the consensus forecast of a 51,000 increase. In addition, ADP revised its previously reported gain of 54,000 in August to a drop of 3,000. Private payroll job growth has averaged just 23,000 in the past three months, and has fallen in three of the past four months, figures which could soon weigh extra heavily on the Fed:
-
Bill Adams, Comerica Bank’s chief economist, said the “weaker than expected” ADP report “could have outsize influence on the next Fed decision” if the shutdown lasts until the central bank’s next policy meeting on October 29. The private payroll data “makes the Fed more likely to cut the federal funds target another quarter percent at their October meeting,” he added, noting Comerica forecasts 25 basis-point cuts in October and December.
-
Another data point
released Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index, indicated new orders and employment in the manufacturing sector contracted last month. Input costs also rose as tariffs continued to ripple through the economy, or as one respondent to the survey bluntly put it: “Steel tariffs are killing us.”
Not to Blame: One factor that’s not yet to blame for labor market disruption is artificial intelligence. Despite fears, a new Yale Budget Lab
analysis found that the US job market hasn’t experienced significant disruption due to advances in AI since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022.
Written by Sean Craig |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Photo via Fisher Investments |
|
|
|
|
|
Even the name “wire transfer” is a relic of a pre-WiFi era. Now, blockchain solutions like stablecoins are putting pressure on payment processors to get with the times and overhaul how they handle transactions.
Global payments leader Swift is
getting ahead of the tech that could otherwise render it obsolete by building a blockchain to enable instant transactions around the world 24/7. That’s a big step forward from waiting one to five business days as its system slowly navigates global banks’ varying hours, time zone differences and bureaucratic speed bumps.
Swift said it’s working with more than 30 financial institutions, including Bank of America and Citigroup, to create its digital ledger, starting with a prototype built by blockchain company Consensys.
It’s a Block Party
Swift processes transactions for more than 11,500 institutions in over 200 countries — it’s so influential that blocking access to it can cut a country off from the global economy (Russian banks are banned from Swift). Its foray into blockchain tech goes to show that traditional finance is taking the tech seriously as a means to overhaul old-school systems.
Stablecoins, especially, have made the financial industry question why banks are still waiting five business days for their funds:
-
The digital assets, which maintain one-to-one value with another asset (typically the US dollar), allow for instant payments at any time over the blockchain while potentially lowering fees. Financial institutions have rushed into the space this year after President Trump signed the Genius Act, which put guardrails around stablecoins and legitimized them on a national scale.
-
A consortium of US banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, is reportedly exploring the launch of a stablecoin. Last week, a group of EU banks, including ING and UniCredit, announced that they’re
creating a euro-backed stablecoin. JPMorgan Chase has also built blockchain-adjacent solutions like a private digital ledger, as well as a
deposit token that operates like a stablecoin but is only available to its clients.
Can Be Too Careful: McKinsey has called stablecoins a direct challenge to traditional payment rails. Building a blockchain could help Swift compete with stablecoin providers, as Swift and other traditional finance giants make blockchain tech their own rather than let outside companies lead them into the future. Still, Swift and others are moving slowly as they navigate a minimally regulated arena. While they exercise caution, people’s payment habits
could shift without them. Citi estimated last week that by 2030, $100 trillion worth of stablecoins could be traded annually.
Written by Jamie Wilde |
|
|
|
|
-
Pedaling Toward AGI: Because everyone else is, Peloton is
introducing a series of new AI features. It’s also releasing a $6,695 treadmill for those who want to take the most expensive stationary walk of their life.
-
Seen This Movie: That was Wall Street’s
answer to the government shutdown Wednesday as markets rose slightly, shrugging off the stalemate in Washington as likely short-lived and continuing to bank on a rate cut this month.
-
Time Your Deductions To Minimize Tax Impact. Strategically accelerate or defer charitable contributions and medical expenses based on expected income fluctuations. High-income year? Bunch deductions. Low-income year? Spread them out. Maximize your tax efficiency with personalized timing strategies.
Book your free Range demo to optimize your deduction planning today.**
** Partner |
|
|
|
Disclaimer
*Important Disclosures
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Average Annual Total Returns Quarter End as of 6/30/2025* (%) |
|
|
*Returns less than one year are not annualized.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance may be lower or higher than performance data quoted. Please call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com for performance current to the most recent month ended.
*Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objectives, risks, and fees of the funds, carefully before investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. VanEck mutual funds and ETFs are distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation. |
|
|
|
|
|
