Task 4

[deezydowntown]

Starting discussion

[LyActuary]

How many assumptions did y'all test? I tested four. I left out assumptions like start tuition, and students entering grade 1 since those are generally short-term predictions and should not differ too much. 

[Matthew Rashford]

I sensitivity tested four assumptions as well.  I found some to be material and some to be immaterial.

[Wendy Windsor]

I’m confused by what they mean in he first part:  Using the same metrics recommended in Task 2, conduct appropriate test to determine which assumptions are the mot/least critical.  How can VaR or CTE determine how critical say, the attrition rate is? I may be missing something obvious.

[mcfarkleberg]

You want to see how much the VaR or CTE vary by.  The most critical assumptions will be the ones that cause the most movement in your selected metrics.  You are answering the question "which assumptions are my model metrics most sensitive to?"