bloody awful...something leaked...it's getting worse over several days

[skibrian]

I've seen this movie before.  bad news is definitely coming...not sure what or when....since 2011, this has been a pattern...daily leakage downward over many days with a capitulation once the news actually becomes public.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/FMCC,FNMA,FMCKJ,FMCKI,FMCCM,FMCCK,FMCCT,FMCCI,FMCKK,FMCCG,FMCCH,FMCCL,FMCCN,FMCCO,FMCCP,FMCCJ,FREGP,FMCKP,FMCCS,FMCKO,FMCKM,FMCKN,FMCKL,FNMAP,FNMAO,FNMFO,FNMAM,FNMAG,FNMAN,FNMAL,FNMAK,FNMAH,FNMAI,FNMAJ,FNMAS,FNMAT,FNMFM,FNMFN/view/view_4

The markets still have inside traders, I'm 100% convinced after following this Frannie saga

[Random Stranger]

Could very well be the En Banc is not going the direction that most experts here have expected.

[skibrian]

random stranger, not sure I've seen you before?!? welcome?

All...  FMCCK is UP 14 CENTS ON 141,000 SHARES!!  that is some serious volume, everything else still down on the 15 minute delayed quotes.

might be an interesting day.  that volume is massive for that preferred (one that I personally hold)

[skibrian]

well damn, real time, FMCCK has rejoined the pack...150 more shares traded on top of 144k and it is now down $1.76, or almost 10%.

insane.

this behaviour is far from normal and I'm getting twitchy.  perhaps scared?

[MH]

The news has already hit. This is pretty much the one liner that sunk things:

"Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees the government-sponsored enterprises, said in an interview it was his "hope" that they would have exited or be ready to exit conservatorship before his term ends in 2024."

[skibrian]

The old time value of money problem....

U2, stealing from the Psalms:  "How long?  How long must we sing this song?  How long???"

[skibrian]

Calabria quote is a good guess.  It doesn't take it to zero, but lengthens the wait, and obviously some don't want to wait that long.  For crying out loud.

This has to be done by the next election, or we might lose Trump our best hope.  I don't see the rest of the field advocating a release...

[seysmont]

Lots of people are involved who don't understand the trade. This was the best case scenario playing out. Common is a buy. Pfds are going to return over par when all is said and done.

[Big Bruce]

This is a very large oversell based on MC's statement. I'm surprised. People are over reacting.... 

I don't think this has anything to do with leaking of the 5th circuit. This is just uncertainty. 

[XXX]

Skib,

Hi volume buy vs small volume sell, even if it nets zero change on pps, is great news.

[skibrian]

i just looked at the day ranges for the shares I posted to start this thread.  More anomolies...a lot of shares dropped by nearly 50% before bouncing back.

FMCCK for instance hit $10.16 early in trading before going up 14 cents on the day, now dropped back to $16.21. 

that's wild.  But I agree, low volume panic are the little fish getting out....

[Dave _]

Aside from some timeline dilation, which creates risk, I think this is a mass exit due to people who wanted to be millionaires by Labor Day and are a bit miffed that it's not that easy.

FNMFN touched 50% of par in 2019 after getting as low as 20% of par in 2018 and is holding at roughly 36% of par as of the time I type this. I am ignoring anything that's not $0 or $50+.

Commons are obviously far more complex of a problem. I'm in both but stopped thinking about commons for now, I need something very concrete like "warrants cancelled" or "warrants executed" to really triangulate on any sort of final number.

[XXX]

Regarding warrants, MC said he’d like to see Tsy reduce its stake. However, both Tsy and FHFA have lied throughout these two years.

[joseph s]

On warrants, the Treasury department is likely to look for maximizing the value of them.

Not a recco

[XXX]

I agree, which runs contrary to IPO dilution and favors retained earnings and longer C ship..

[hellbentonholding]

I agree.  Maybe back to $1.77 which seems to be a magic number to me in this

[joseph s]

FHFA has said that they will not look for a calendar dependent release. That runs contrary to the magical 10 yr capital build via retained earnings.

Not a recco

[seysmont]

They should have done that in 2008.

[Fudgepac Mortgage Holdings]

Seems like Calabria is saying that if this doesn't get done by 2024, Mnuchin will push Trump to give Fannie a Roger Clinton styled pardon in the final days of the dreaded Second Term.

He is also taking to Deny and Delay, Shrug Shoulders, Aw Shucks, I did everything I could. My annual discount rate on the Pfd trade is up to 35% over 5 years. That brings me a NPV of $5.58 on the $25 preferreds. Basically back to where we were at the end of 2018.

[joseph s]

Ok, AT. You win. Stock only worth 5. Common is worth 30 cents.

Those are misprints on the quotes...