Gov Capital Investor Blog - FNMA Prediction

[MikeSP]

https://gov.capital/stock/fnma-stock/

FNMA Price is 0.435 USD today.

1 year Federal National Mortgage Association Forecast: 1.9800822615003 *

5 year Federal National Mortgage Association Forecast: 11.306 *

[globalsp...@gmail.com]

Here is the gov valuation. If spspa gets subpar does not leave any security for common. The gov valuation already leaves no upside for common. 
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2022/notes-to-the-financial-statements8.pdf

[MikeSP]

oh no, not the crowbar?

[chrise...@gmail.com]

I always consider the govt. accounting simple voodoo. The SPSPA and LP are, as we know, not considering the underlying economics of the prior transactions; after all this is what accounting is supposed to be doing.

The number is $187 or $188B for the value. They started adding to it with the LP.

All they need to do - and will do as you believe - is convert the SPSPA to common / warrants and then they will have a new total. A book entry, right?

This would leave a lot of value in the common / warrants and the only question would be what is that value?

No sense in prognosticating what Mnuchin, Phillips, MS, JPM came up with - unless you've seen the roadshow they presented and unless their roadshow was to sell only new JPS, one can surmise they were selling common stock.

Moelis and Blackrock plans would have them converting the warrants, and I do believe this is in the cards, but how they aportion their total is anyone's guess.

[globalsp...@gmail.com]

Well said. Lots of dilution. Try your math with warrants only. Then value the warrants and look at how big the spspa is. I disagree. It is easy to see commons have no security. Calabria even explains to Mark Warner in his book that the spspa cannot see face value. This means subpar spspa. This means haircut spspa solution. From cbo report this caps common valuation at 1 penny. I am more generous than that. I think common get $0.50

[MikeSP]

Pry that crowbar