CBS cracks me up

[skibrian]

For an engineer, he sure fails at analysis.  I'm sure he can do math, but context is everything in finance.  Accountants do math, financial analysts figure out what it means.

Quote from other board:

CatBirdSeat

11:24 AM (7 minutes ago)

FNMAS $6.66

The end is near.

My reply: 

FNMAS 120.3% higher than 52 week low.

FNMA common is 68.2% higher than 52 week low.

Scoreboard

And don't forget, everybody is up off the lows.  Why the constant drum beat over there.  Can't we all be friends?

[joseph s]

Eh. No need for friends or enemies. Unless the enemy is free thought and free expression. Free thought and expression is my friend. If it is someone's enemy, I want nothing to do with them. CBS will be welcome here once he boots off the rest of the folks negative on common or the thesis.

That is the way we operate. Except that bastard, Maloni. We dont want none of that riff raff, here. C.J. is fine,
though (cause his negativity is different).

Most of the common holders post here, now. Cause their views wont be silenced.

Ski-

Many posters go from being negative to positive and back. Sometimes we see different things. Just glad this board is thriving, welcoming and open to all.

As well as all opinions. Look at that Achilles guy for instance. He is negative as fuck

[ron...@comcast.net]

He almost makes me want to root against my own commons.

[joseph s]

That's the funny thing. Most of us dont root against the stock(or any stock). It isnt like we are short.

Look at Berkowitz, for instance. He says he wont touch the common, too spec. He isnt rooting against it. He just doesnt care because he favors pref on risk/reward.

Ackman is the one who chgd my mind on commons. (That they could work out ok) He has a knack for RE and is very smart in that arena of investing. I never considered the commons till he bought. Ever.

I want the stock to go up a ton. But that doesnt mean it will.....

[skibrian]

For posterity before the post is deleted on the other side:

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/freddienfannie/aJyFprQVoy4

Wayne Z

1:55 PM (7 minutes ago)

I know you are a common guy but, you should realize by now all white papers or comments from players that matter support the utility model.  Recap and Release is not going to happen.  I make no bones about it.  I am in P shares and I roll with LD.  I roll with money. 

I do think that Commons will make money echoing sentiment here but, it will make less maybe significantly less than Ps.  Its hard for you to take this in, I get it.  But, the guy you followed into Commons fed you one bad piece of info and that is Recap and Release.  The guy obviously was reading the news and you know what we say about news, its chatter while all whitepapers support the Utility model.  Even Mnuchin will not confirm if he supports Recap and Release.  He is backpedaling.

I feel bad for those who you actively convinced to sell their Ps for Cs.  You will cost them about 50% to 100%+ more than what they could have made.  I guess you can tell them at least they still won something. 

[joseph s]

Free thinkers are welcome, here. There is still a path to 100 on the common. I just think the path is highly unlikely, now.

If the SCOTUS stops the NWS and cancels the warrants, then we can talk 60-100.

Until then, the only losing longshots I will stick with will be in the Belmont. Which is well known for the longshot

[joseph s]

I also like FNMA in a short term trade, here. I have one indicator that has been correct each time. Just turned positive.

Not a recco

[joseph s]

Fnma at 2.70 right now.

[joseph s]

I like fnma for a trade right now. Not a recco

[ron...@comcast.net]

Skib as I said to Wayne, given a utility model I still don't see less than a 4 bagger, which is pretty much all the 25s will get.

[SimSla]

With roughly 14 billion of annual income going to common, roughly 2 billion outstanding shares, 10% required rate of return, no dilution ( at this point is difficult to argue that the warrants will be exercised.Everything has been paid off. Conversion of preferred to common is also not feasable), 20 years investment horizon, i am coming up with $60 per common share.

[skibrian]

SimSla, that was the normal trading range before the crash.  only happens in a decade and warrants not exercised.

it's not out of the realm of possibility, a lot of chips have to fall the right way....

[ron...@comcast.net]

Guys, I just want to hear a scenario outside liquidation in which pfds exceed common. 3-4x seems minimal for common. But that's pretty much pfd top end.

[SimSla]

I think a lot of chips have already fallen the right way. No kill bill was able to make it to the floor for a vote, despite no opposition from shareholders at the time. The companies paid off everything with 10% return so this government defense is out of the way. No recently published whitepaper from TBTF gives a reasonable path going forward. They are still living in Geithner reality asking for government guarantee of MBS regardless of the issuer ( this was a no go even when Geithner was all for it.). We have documents showing fraud even if the lower courts are hesitant to rule in our favor eventually we will win. We will win because current shareholders need to be treated fairly if private capital is to come back into MBS. 

[SimSla]

Ron That scenario is severe common dilution.

[ron...@comcast.net]

I know. I'm merely looking for how PFD can outperform common as some like to claim. I own 40% PFD only because of the corruption that could end in liquidation. Highly unlikely but I've taken out insurance. But how would utility model create a pro pfd scenario relative to common? I don't see it.

[littlede...@gmail.com]

"I'm merely looking for how PFD can outperform common as some like to claim"

Conversion. 

If you see Ps not converting and going in as Ps.  Then the Ps will have reinstated dividends and under that scenario, Forget abouz it,  Ps will outperform Cs hands down....with......Tyson knock out.......Lebron vs. Steph 1 on 1......and Coca Cola vs Pepsi AUTHORITY........go figure...devil

[Mayhem]

Hi all - sorry I am late to the party.  But this ostrich approach on the other board is getting old.

[skibrian]

CatBirdSeat

10:14 AM (20 minutes ago)

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1851OU?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+reuters%252FbusinessNews+%2528Business+News%2529

The government is sure hard to fight. Junior preferred holders
Can kiss any hopes for compensation good bye.

Just give our equity fair value

Click here to Reply

CatBirdSeat

10:20 AM (14 minutes ago)

U.S. government did not commit an "illegal exaction" harming American International Group Inc (AIG.N) shareholders led by former Chief Executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg.

me (skibrian change)

10:34 AM (less than a minute ago)

from a lawyer.  we can certainly trust CBS knows how an AIG ruling will be applied to GSE's.  I guess David Bois, one of the world's top lawyers fighting on behalf of all of us, but most importantly, Berkowitz, solely a preferred holder, has no idea what he's talking about, and neither does berkowitz.  CBS is an engineer, but he slept at a Holiday Inn last night.

[skibrian]

posted that in case it gets deleted on the other board

[skibrian]

This is a hot take...but I think a big difference is that the AIG suit was about the initial 2008 bailout.

Our lawsuits are in regards to the 2012 sweep violating the 2008 bailout contract.  Nobody is contending the F&F 2008 bailout like Greenberg was with AIG.

Apples and oranges.

I am not a lawyer.  I admit that.  Don't take my word for this.  Do your own diligence per lil devil

[SimSla]

AIG lawsuit was based on the fact that the Federal reserve can not take equity position in private enterprises by law. This is not the case with Treasury and the GSEs. The AIG and GSEs lawsuits are completely different.

[Ace]

Speaking of Lawyers, has Herzeca made a peep since the decision cam down back in February?  I don't recall seeing his name recently. ...?

[freddie believer]

He is here

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/fnma-and-fmcc-preferreds-in-search-of-the-elusive-10-bagger/7010/

[mhill_fin]

Oh boy. I believe a re-post of this pic is warranted again. I didn't realize that I am supposed to root for liquidation now. Now I gotta change strategy and put Carney on speed dial...

[mhill_fin]

It's classic. Anytime there's some down news for all classes, the Catbird chimes in with 'Daammn! Bad news for Preferred! How that ass feel now?'   Hella funny.

[joseph s]

Well. Statistically, my guess is that with Lamberth upheld, there are more scenarios where preferred outperform. It took C common until now to outperform C pref on a price basis(not incl divvies) In most capital raise/recap scenarios, the common get whacked because the buyers need a significant discount and margin of safety on top of it.

See the AIG recap. Good example of common being crushed with secondaries. Good luck getting top dollar when you must raise and everyone knows it.

Even good stocks get whacked. I have watched secondaries for 20 yrs. I know this shit. AIG was a huge offering over 18 mos. Most buyers flipped. As fast as they could

[Duncan Macleod "Beta"]

FnF offering whehter pfd or common will be HUGE. i imagine large enough that it might temporarily affect money/credit in the markets. Think Treasury auctions, bond offerings. If done correctly, i think it will attract overseeas money. Stable pfd returns in american dollars. i think this is attractive.
I am all alone on this- but still think cumulative pfds (with PIK option if reserve capital is low) provides an attractive security that should get low enough rates that FnF can carry this without much burden.

[littlede...@gmail.com]

Cat is passionate about his commons.  Good for him.  Da MOMO club stay on course with da Ps.   For each their own.  I have been buying Ps slowly on deals.  I dont pay commission so, I dont care if they fill me 1 share at a time.  We are all equity......shareholders will make out fine at the end......it is just a matter of getting there and finding out the Conversion ratio.   I am maxing RV....buy cheapies.......da devil values RV over divies..........good luck to all.....enjoy da chatter....and as always.....go figure...devil