When will the singularity happen?

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John Clark

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Nov 7, 2025, 6:46:25 AM (5 days ago) Nov 7

to ExI Chat, extro...@googlegroups.com, 'Brent Meeker' via Everything List

There's a lot of disagreement about when the singularity will happen so I did a little research to find some quotes from people who know the most about AI think it will happen. If they're right then Ray Kurzweil's prediction of 2039 (recently modified from his previous prediction of 2045) is still way too conservative.

Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI

“Our latest model feels smarter than me in almost every way…”

"In some big sense, ChatGPT is already more powerful than any human who has ever lived. We may have already passed the point where artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence"

Dario Amodei, the head of Anthropic:

“It is my guess that by 2026 or 2027, we will have A.I. systems that are broadly better than all humans at almost all things.”

“Artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to be smarter than most Nobel Prize winners before the end of this decade.”

Elon Musk, you may have heard of him:

“If you define AGI (artificial general intelligence) as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years.”

“My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”

“I always thought AI was going to be way smarter than humans and an existential risk. And that's turning out to be true.”