Believe it or not?

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Alan Grayson

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Aug 4, 2022, 5:45:43 PMAug 4
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Alan Grayson

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Aug 15, 2022, 3:20:19 AMAug 15
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Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any "scientist" here willing to go that far? AG

On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M

Jason Resch

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Aug 15, 2022, 12:57:04 PMAug 15
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For any binary claim without evidence either way, I think it is reasonable to assign a "prior probability" to 50% when doing Bayesian inference.

Though I am not sure this case would be simply: he's lying vs. he's telling the truth. You might also have to consider possibilities such as, he is telling the truth but he is misremembering, or was purposely deceived about the true nature of the events, etc.

As one then factors in additional evidence to update the probability estimation, other hypotheses should converge towards 0% while one converges towards 100%. However, with a lack of evidence to add and update our probability estimation, we are stuck with something like 50/50, or 25/25/25/25, without a way to progress any further.

Jason

John Clark

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Aug 15, 2022, 2:30:05 PMAug 15
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On Mon, Aug 15, 2022 at 3:20 AM Alan Grayson <agrays...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth.

So you think if you can't prove or disprove something you should give it a 50% chance of being correct . Congratulations Mr. Grayson, you have just said what is probably the stupidest thing ever uttered on this list, and that is saying something! But I would expect nothing less from a certified UFO nut and tinfoil hat wearing Alex Jones apologist.

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
tfh

 

Alan Grayson

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Aug 15, 2022, 4:14:06 PMAug 15
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You keep being a total schmuck and have no self-knowledge about your behavior. I didn't claim 50% proves anything, except possibly that some claims deserve more than mockery, particularly from someone who claims to be an objective analyst of possible realities. AG

Alan Grayson

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Aug 15, 2022, 4:22:20 PMAug 15
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That's not what I said. Rather, I said that without additional knowledge, one has to give the claim a 50% probability of being true  (or false). The only evidence you have is your bias articulated in venomous counter-claims. Mark my words; on the UFO issue, I will eventually be proven correct. AG

Brent Meeker

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Aug 15, 2022, 4:38:44 PMAug 15
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That's not my prior.

Brent
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Alan Grayson

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Aug 15, 2022, 4:51:59 PMAug 15
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Brent; I have no idea what you mean. AG

Telmo Menezes

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Aug 16, 2022, 5:32:05 AMAug 16
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Am Mo, 15. Aug 2022, um 22:51, schrieb Alan Grayson:
Brent; I have no idea what you mean. AG

Alan Grayson

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Aug 16, 2022, 4:53:09 PMAug 16
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Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AG

On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:

Brent Meeker

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Aug 16, 2022, 5:30:19 PMAug 16
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It's very unlikely he's telling what happened.  That doesn't mean he's lying.  He's probably misinterpreting his experience.

Brent

Alan Grayson

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Aug 17, 2022, 1:18:32 AMAug 17
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Brent; He's a professor of civil engineering at an accredited US university and was an F86 fighter pilot in the Korean War. It's virtually impossible to imagine he's misinterpreting his experience. There are numerous examples of baffling UFO cases, and after reviewing some of them, I think it's more likely than not that we're being studied by aliens. AG

Lawrence Crowell

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Aug 19, 2022, 7:24:16 PMAug 19
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My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any ETI has a small time stamp on that.

LC

Alan Grayson

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Aug 20, 2022, 10:48:13 AMAug 20
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What would be your Bayesian prior estimate for intelligent life emerging from Earth? AG

spudb...@aol.com

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Aug 20, 2022, 3:11:06 PMAug 20
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Well, playing scifi here, if the complex life is carbon-water, then yeah, death from heat or radiation. If somehow it is crystal made from silicon, or carbon-silicon chemistry, then heat and radiation would not sterilize at all. Am I counting on this to be nearby, as within the old Milky Way. NO. Math is not observation, and detection is all that matters. Nearly everything that looked hopefully towards a populated galaxy decades ago, has gone sideways. 


Telmo Menezes

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Aug 21, 2022, 9:19:12 AMAug 21
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Am Sa, 20. Aug 2022, um 16:48, schrieb Alan Grayson:
What would be your Bayesian prior estimate for intelligent life emerging from Earth? AG

1, what else could it be?

Telmo

Telmo Menezes

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Aug 21, 2022, 9:22:55 AMAug 21
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Am Sa, 20. Aug 2022, um 01:24, schrieb Lawrence Crowell:
My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any ETI has a small time stamp on that.

Lawrence, I am curious about your estimate (and agnostic, this is not argumentative). Do you figure that any planet similar to Earth* will invariably develop intelligent life? Or are you estimating a certain probability for such a planet? And do you figure that intelligent life could emerge in conditions very different from Earth?

Telmo

* "M-Class planet" for the Trekkies amongst us

LC
On Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 3:53:09 PM UTC-5 agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AG


On Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:
That's not my prior.

Brent


On 8/15/2022 12:20 AM, Alan Grayson wrote:
Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any "scientist" here willing to go that far? AG


On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M
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