Rip Dad Young City Slowed

[Anthony]

Therecovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, the rise of remote work, and the changing geography of American industry have all played a role in reshaping the economic and demographic map of the country. Among the most enduring consequences of these trends has been the struggle of major cities across the country to retain residents, particularly families. As an EIG analysis last year found, families with young children (those under five years of age) left large urban counties at a substantially faster rate than other residents, a break from pre-pandemic trends.

New county-level population estimates from the Census Bureau now confirm that this trend, while abating modestly relative to 2021, continued into 2022. By July 2022, the under-five population in large urban counties was 6.1 percent smaller than a mere 27 months earlier in April 2020. While the overall population in large urban counties shrank too, their population fell by less than 1 percent.

Nationwide, the population of children under five fell by 0.7 percent last year as long-running trends of an aging population and falling birthrate continued. While this trend is bound to affect large parts of the country, it is not impacting every party equally. Instead, much like overall population shifts post-pandemic, large urban areas are bearing a disproportionate share of the under-five population loss. Indeed, they are losing families with young children much faster than they are losing population overall.

National birth rates and birth rates by county type remained little changed in the post-pandemic period, while declines from pre-pandemic rates have been nearly uniform across county types. Together, these facts imply most of the changes in the rates of growth of young families were due to changes in migration patterns.

An important question is whether families with young children were more strongly affected by post-pandemic migration trends or whether the larger impacts on the under-five population are simply due to the national decline in this population. In other words, did large urban areas really see greater out-migration of families, or does the trend just look worse because the number of children under five so rapidly fell across the country as a whole? After all, between April 2020 and July 2022, the overall population grew 0.6 percent while the number of young children fell 3.3 percent.

The out-migration of young families from urban counties was far from uniform across the country. It was most severe in the large urban counties of the Mid-Atlantic, which have seen their population of kids under five drop 10.3 percent since April 2020. Large urban counties on the west coast (the Pacific census division) saw a decline of 8.4 percent over this period. Outflows of young families from urban counties slowed in 2022 in these regions but remained significantly larger than the rest of the country.

Much of Canada's cultural, economic and political landscape has been shaped by the achievements of Indigenous people. Generations of Indigenous people, including leaders, Elders, healers, educators, business leaders, artists and activists, have made invaluable contributions, touching all aspects of life in Canada.

Over multiple decades, census data have revealed that the Indigenous population has grown quickly, at a pace far surpassing that of the non-Indigenous population. There are two reasons for this growth. The first, often called "natural growth," relates to higher birth rates and increasing lifespans. The second has been termed "response mobility," which refers to people who once responded to the Indigenous identity questions one way on the census questionnaire, but now respond differently. Over time, respondents who had previously not identified as Indigenous have become more likely to do so. This may be related to personal reflection, social factors or external factors such as changes to legislation or court rulings.

The colonial history of Canada has profoundly impacted Indigenous peoples, their governance, languages and cultures. However, through the efforts and resilience of Indigenous people and their communities, important steps have been taken toward reconciliation and the rebuilding of ties to the unique cultures and languages of First Nations people, Mtis and Inuit. In recent years, federal initiatives have been implemented, including the Indigenous Languages Act; the Act respecting First Nations, Inuit and Mtis children, youth and families, as well as modern treaty negotiations.

The 2021 Census was particularly challenging to conduct amid the respect for isolation due to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as regional forest fires that interfered with data collection. Because of these factors, enumeration could not be completed in 63 of the 1,026 census subdivisions that are classified as First Nations reserves.

Despite the challenges posed to in-person collection, the Census of Population remains the most comprehensive source of community-level data for the Indigenous population in Canada and robust data are available for First Nations, Mtis and Inuit communities. Census data are used to inform policy and community work for Indigenous peoples, and are comparable across time and across multiple levels of geography. The collection and dissemination of these data would not have been possible without the participation of First Nations people, Mtis and Inuit across Canada.

For First Nations, Mtis and Inuit families, grandparents often play an important role in raising children as well as in passing down values, traditions and cultural knowledge to younger generations. In 2021, 14.2% of Indigenous children lived with at least one grandparent, compared with 8.9% of non-Indigenous children.

In 2021, almost one in five Indigenous people in Canada (18.8%) lived in a low-income household, using the low-income measure, after tax. This was down nearly 10 percentage points from 2016. The decline was likely driven by government transfers in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Canada, 237,420 Indigenous people could speak an Indigenous language well enough to conduct a conversation. While the number of people with an Indigenous mother tongue has been in decline, there has been growth in the number of Indigenous second-language speakers.

The Indigenous population grew by 9.4% from 2016 to 2021, almost twice the pace of growth of the non-Indigenous population over the same period (+5.3%). Population projections for First Nations people, Mtis and Inuit suggest that the Indigenous population could reach between 2.5 million and 3.2 million over the next 20 years.

The faster growth of the Indigenous population is generally attributed to higher birth rates, combined with changes in the way respondents answer the census questionnaire from one census to the next. In general, respondents have become more likely to identify as Indigenous over time. The reasons people are more likely to identify as Indigenous may be related to social factors and external factors, such as changes to legislation or court rulings. Also, past findings have highlighted a connection between having both Indigenous and non-Indigenous ancestry and response mobility.

The success of the 2021 Census would not have been possible without the involvement of Indigenous people. Thanks to their participation, high-quality data are available for Indigenous communities across the country. Statistics Canada would like to thank First Nations, Mtis and Inuit communities for responding to the 2021 Census of Population.

The 2021 Census was uniquely challenging to conduct during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ensuring the health and safety of First Nations, Mtis and Inuit communities was highly prioritized, and at times this presented challenges for in-person collection. In particular, this impacted data collection for some First Nations communities.

As part of a nation-to-nation relationship, Statistics Canada engages with First Nations through Indigenous Liaison Advisors, who request the permission of First Nations chiefs and council members to collect data on reserve. In situations where there were complications related to COVID-19 or regional forest fires, or if a given First Nation did not give permission, data collection could not be completed.

The spring of 2021 also marked the tragic confirmation of the unmarked graves of children who had attended the Kamloops Indian Residential School in British Columbia. In later months, similar grave sites were also documented in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia. In response, the Indigenous Liaison Program at Statistics Canada worked closely with First Nations and census collection was paused in several First Nations communities and, in some cases, halted entirely.

In general, the number of incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements has declined steadily over the past few decades. In 1996, 77 reserves and settlements were incompletely enumerated during the census. This fell to 30 in 2001 and then to 22 in 2006, before rising to 31 in 2011. There were 14 in 2016. Because of the aforementioned difficulties surrounding collection in 2021, there were 63 incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements out of a total of 1,026 census subdivisions in Canada that were classified as "on reserve."

Among status First Nations people, just over two-fifths (40.6%) lived on reserve in 2021. The term "on reserve" refers to census subdivisions legally affiliated with First Nations or Indian bands. However, while this definition applies to some First Nations that have signed a modern treaty or a self-government agreement, it does not apply to all. For example, most First Nations in the Northwest Territories and Yukon have signed modern treaties, but their administered lands are not considered on reserve.

Two new questions were added to the long-form census questionnaire in 2021, following engagement with Indigenous communities and organizations and extensive questionnaire testing. These new questions will help Mtis and Inuit governments and organizations better understand the demographic, social and economic characteristics of their members.

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