Re: ul
Anastacia Iacono
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Big Tech platforms will also be under pressure this year and not just from the economic downturn. First-generation social networks like Facebook and Twitter are struggling to retain audiences as older people get bored and younger users migrate to new networks like TikTok. Amid this turmoil, there is some hope that the next set of applications will put more emphasis on connections and content that are good for society rather than those that deliver outrage and anger. With huge audiences up for grabs, we can expect (or hope) to see the seeds of something better in 2023 with a host of new networks and models emerging.
Against this backdrop, news organisations that have not yet fully embraced digital will be at a severe disadvantage. The next few years will not be defined by how fast we adopt digital, but by how we transform our digital content to meet rapidly changing audience expectations.
Advertisers are pulling back at the same time as households reduce spending and publishers face rising costs on multiple fronts. Those that still rely heavily on print have been particularly badly affected, with the cost of paper doubling in some cases. Towards the end of 2022, this perfect storm led to a number of layoffs, spending freezes, and other cost-cutting measures.
Digital-born companies are not immune. BuzzFeed is losing another 180 employees, while Morning Brew is axing 14% of its workforce. Falling traffic from big social platforms like Facebook (Meta) and Twitter, which are both heading in new directions, has compounded the problem, especially for companies that have become dependent on social distribution.
Any publication that still has a heavy dependence on print circulation or advertising revenue is likely to run into severe difficulties this year. Regional and local newspapers are especially vulnerable, potentially leading to more government intervention in some countries to support the sector.
Expect more newspapers to slim down editions, stop seven day a week publication, and even close print editions altogether. Regional and local titles seem most vulnerable (Newsquest in the UK has recently converted five regional titles) along with a host of magazine titles that have already moved to an online-only model. With fewer copies being sold, distribution networks are also weakening and expect some to follow the example of US publishers in leveraging the public mail1 or even starting their own delivery businesses. Green consumerism could add further pressure to move away from print.
The consensus is that this year will be more focused on the retention of existing subscribers, rather than adding new ones. Those who have been running subscription operations for some time have a secure base on which to build and hope they can keep some growth through special price offers or by bundling more premium value such as newsletters and events.
This will be a key focus for many publishers looking to hang on to new subscribers gained during the Ukraine war and COVID-19. Renegotiating with customer service centres can lead to half-price deals or better, while new subscribers are being offered eye-popping discounts. The Washington Post had an end-of-year deal that was 75% off its premium rate plus a bonus subscription for a friend, while the LA Times, Chicago Tribune, and Boston Globe have six months digital access for $1.4 Other US publications, including the New York Times, routinely offer $1 a week for the first year and the Wall Street Journal is one of many that offers reduced cost options for students. Longer trial periods have been another tactic being deployed by some European publishers, reducing income in the short term but hopefully leading to more loyalty in the longer term. With exceptionally low marginal distribution costs online, all publishers trying to grow their subscription numbers will constantly be tempted to (also) compete on price, even as some commercial titles will continue to focus on ad-supported models offering free news.
In Norway, leading daily Aftenposten offers an all-access bundle that includes other Schibsted national and regional newspapers such as VG and Bergens Tidende, magazines, and premium podcasts via the PodMe application it recently bought into.
While subscription (80%) remains the top priority in our sample, followed by display advertising (75%), most commercial publishers continue to say that multiple different revenue streams will be important to them this year. The Guardian, for example, combines subscriptions on its app with a donation model, digital advertising, revenue from platforms and foundations, and events too. The Financial Times, which is best known as a subscription publisher, also employs display and native advertising, runs a consultancy which advises other media companies, and has expanded its events business over the last few years, including the annual FT Weekend Festival.
News organisations have long complained about big platforms taking much of the revenue but now the imminent demise of support for third-party cookies is threatening to make the situation even worse. Privacy-related changes threaten to reduce ad revenue further in the short term but are prompting publishers to start initiatives to collect their own (first-party) data that could be the basis for a more sustainable future. The Swiss OneLog system10 is now used by leading commercial publishers in the country including Ringier and TX media brands, as well as the public service broadcaster SRG SSR. This already accounts for around a quarter of the Swiss population with more growth to come.
After decades of continuous growth, we have started to see a decline in the amount of time we are spending online, according to data from research agency GWI.13 Overall time with the internet is down by 13%, after record high usage during COVID-19 lockdowns, suggesting we may have reached peak internet. This is a highly significant change that could be a natural function of market saturation but the agency suggests that it may also reflect the anxiety people feel when using online and social media.
In terms of online news, it is hard to discern a clear picture. Around four-in-ten (42%), publishers say year-on-year traffic to their websites is up, with 58% reporting that traffic has been static or falling, despite a succession of important news stories from the Ukraine invasion, to rising energy prices, climate change, and in the UK, the death of the Queen.
In thinking about the reasons for flat or declining engagement, the vast majority of publishers (72%) are concerned about a trend highlighted in the 2022 Digital News Report where more users are actively avoiding the news. Digital News Report data show that this selective avoidance, often involving important stories such as politics, has doubled in some countries since 2017, because many people feel that media coverage is overly negative, repetitive, hard to trust, and leaves people feeling powerless.
Publishers will be integrating features that allow people to see more (or less) positive news. As part of its latest redesign, Pink News has included a mood control button as part of personalisation options. The LGBTQ+ publisher says around 25% of readers said they would prefer to read just uplifting news stories, in a recent survey. But for others it provides an option to take a break from negative stories when they need it.
Elsewhere look out for initiatives that put human stories at the heart of the conversation. The Human Journalism Network is a worldwide sharing platform for inspirational and high-impact stories. By sharing these stories across countries and languages the founders hope to develop more impact for less money at a time when on the ground reporting is under pressure. The Network started in 2021 by sharing content across eight Latin American countries, but will expand globally by early 2023, supported by the ICFJ, with content in English and Spanish.
Moves are afoot to change this with enhanced specialist teams, and new strategies for sustainable journalism, according to our survey results (below). Around two-thirds of our sample (63%) of news executives now rate their own coverage as good, even if many also admit that engaging audiences with the often-depressing outlook for the planet can be a tough sell.
A third of news executives (33%) also say they have taken steps in the last year to improve sustainability. Schibsted, for example, has been working to reduce the carbon footprint of its reporting and production and this is backed up by an annual sustainability report with a dedicated unit working on these issues across the company. Around a quarter of our survey respondents (23%) say they have embarked on training programmes to increase awareness, with more than four in ten (44%) recognising that elements of the climate story need to be part of wider coverage across the newsroom. In Austria, publishers recently got together to create a set of guidelines for newsrooms including the accurate use of language, coverage of solutions as well as problems, separation of fact and opinion, and the creation of resources and structures to support better coverage across disciplines.16 Cross-country communities are being developed, including our own Oxford Climate Journalism Network (OCJN) to share best practice.17
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