Did
you know? Air pollution regulations actually do more harm than good
if you ignore all the lives they
save.
That
sentence sounds deranged because it is. But it’s also the honest-to-God
logic behind the Trump administration’s new approach to regulating air
pollution, which kills more Americans every year than car
accidents.
On Monday, the New
York Times reported that the EPA plans to judge all future air
pollution rules solely by their costs to industry—not by the number of
hospitalizations, chronic illnesses, and deaths they prevent. Maxine Joselow reports:
Under
President Trump, the EPA plans to stop tallying gains from the health
benefits caused by curbing two of the most widespread deadly air
pollutants, fine particulate matter and ozone, when regulating
industry, according to internal agency emails and documents reviewed
by The New York Times. …
The
change could make it easier to repeal limits on these pollutants
from coal-burning power plants, oil
refineries, steel mills and other industrial facilities across the
country, the emails and documents show. That would most likely lower
costs for companies while resulting in dirtier
air.
“Dirtier
air” may sound dangerous. But if you don’t acknowledge what it actually
does to people, it’s really nothing to worry about—at least according to
Trump’s EPA.
The Trump administration insists this
is not what’s happening. Carolyn Holran, an EPA spokeswoman, told the
Times in an email that the agency is still weighing
the health effects of PM2.5 and ozone; it just won’t be assigning them a
dollar value in cost-benefit analyses. “Not monetizing does not equal
not considering or not valuing the human health impact,” she
said.
But functionally, that’s exactly what it
equals. In regulatory cost-benefit analysis, monetization is how harms
are weighed, compared, and justified. If the EPA refuses to assign a
dollar value to the illnesses and deaths caused by air pollution, those
harms cannot influence the outcome of the rule. And if they cannot
influence the outcome, they may as well not exist for policy
purposes.
Make
no mistake: this is air pollution denial, a phenomenon the Trump
administration has been advancing since 2017. It’s taken
different forms over the years: Attacking the science linking particulate
pollution to premature death, minimizing the harms, arguing the
evidence was too uncertain to justify federal policy.
But the goal was always the same: to stop regulatory agencies from
treating air pollution as a public health problem. The Trump EPA has now
reached that endpoint.
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The
first casualty: nitrogen oxide limits for gas plants
The
EPA’s new approach to air pollution regulations is already being used to
justify allowing the fossil fuel industry to pollute more.
In
2024, the Biden EPA proposed strict limits on nitrogen oxide and sulfur
dioxide emissions from new gas-fired power plants. To justify
the rule, Biden’s EPA estimated that reducing this pollution would save
anywhere from $27 million to $92 million per year in avoided doctor
visits, hospitalizations, and deaths. (Nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide
form PM2.5 and ozone—the main ingredients of smog—which damage lungs,
hearts, and brains).
Trump’s
EPA is, of course, trying to weaken this rule. And on Monday, the Trump
EPA posted a cost-benefit analysis of its
proposal. Instead of updating the math on how many illnesses and deaths
the rule would prevent (which would have been alarming, because it would
have been a lot less) the agency just… did not count those health
benefits at all. It only counted how much the new rule would cost the
fossil fuel industry. Turns out, it was a lot less!
The
EPA says it’s doing this because they disagree with the Biden
administration’s methodology for calculating the health benefits of
reducing deadly air pollutants. And this is, for the record, a
longstanding partisan fight. For decades, Republicans have argued that
Democrats overvalue health benefits to justify regulation, while
Democrats have argued that Republicans undervalue health benefits to
make regulation look unnecessary.
But
even amid those fights, both sides have always
agreed that the EPA has to make some calculation of
health benefits—because the agency’s mission is
literally to “protect human health and the environment.” In
the past, there has had to be some semblance of
adhering to that mission, no matter which party held
power.
That is what makes the Trump administration’s
approach so stark. Rather than argue over how to calculate the health
benefits of reducing pollution, it has chosen not to calculate them at
all. In a way, it’s almost refreshing; at least they’re not pretending
the EPA works for anyone but the industries who funded Trump’s
campaign.
But
mostly, it’s horrifying. Air pollution causes more than 200,000 early deaths each year
in America. It drives up rates of asthma, heart disease, and stroke. It
disproportionately harms children, low-income communities, and
communities of color—the people who have the least structural power to
fight the industries doing the polluting.
Those
harms remain real whether or not the EPA bothers to count them. And the
decision to stop counting them tells you everything you need to know
about who is in charge.
But hey, at least we’re
frying french fries in beef tallow
again.
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