*[Enwl-eng] Fwd: [Holobionts] Record heat goes on

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Друзья,

в тему - если я правильно понимаю - бесплодного окончания СОР-29.

Два сообщения, которые при поверхностном просмотре (я не специалист) показались мне очень интересными. 

Может быть, кто-то - вникнув - поделится с сообществом.

Свет 

 

От: 'rob de laet' via The Proud Holobionts <theproudh...@googlegroups.com>
Date: пт, 22 нояб. 2024 г. в 10:39
Subject: Re: [Holobionts] Record heat goes on

 

 

Hi Dorota and everybody, 

In the 5th Report of IPCC on the page 666 is written: Myhre et al. 2013  

‘’As the largest contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, water vapor plays an essential role in the Earth’s climate. However, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is controlled mostly by air temperature, rather than by emissions. For that reason, scientists consider it a feedback agent, rather than a forcing to climate change. Anthropogenic emissions of water vapor through irrigation or power plant cooling have a negligible impact on the global climate“.

This is blatantly wrong! The climatologists may need years to figure this out, but we do not have that time left. When water vapor condenses to form clouds, it releases latent heat that is radiated back into space, in large part through the atmospheric window. Also, the clouds increase the Earth's albedo, reflecting sunlight and creating a cooling effect. This dual influence (and there are more, such as the tropopause heating up and the low Bowen ratio over forests, making GHGs ineffective, lowering their climate sensitivity!) makes water a major cooling forcing of the climate through phase change! 

Peter Bunyard and Rob de Laet, co-authors of the article: ‘’Restoring the earth’s damaged temperature regulation is the fastest way out of the climate crisis - cooling the planet with plants’’ calculated the temperature fingerprint of the earlier record drought in the Amazon in 2005, which was in a neutral year where temperatures were not affected by either El Nino or La Nina, and came out at a value of 0.24°C and lo and behold, there is a spike in global temperatures at the end of that year of roughly that magnitude, indicating that our calculations about the cooling power of the rainforests may well be close to the truth. 

Based on this, while the final data are not in yet, we can estimate that the additional global warming caused by the 2023 and 2024 droughts in the Amazon combined, could add about 0.4°C to global temperatures. Although there are more factors affecting yearly variations, the largest short term variation is typically caused by the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). During El Niño years, global temperatures usually increase by approximately 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C, whereas during La Niña years, they generally decrease by about the same amount. In 2023 we had an El Nino, and now when this article is written (first week October 2024), we are in the neutral phase going into a weak La Nina. So the total drought signature minus the ENSO variation would probably be around + 0.1 °C compared to the start of the drought in 2023. In the chart below you see that despite coming out of an El Nino, the temperatures in 2024 track those of 2023 closely and it would be logical that, depending on the strength of the La Nina the end 2024 temperatures could equal those of 2023 or even above, despite the flip of the ENSO, which normally would decrease global temperatures by between 0.2 and 0.4 °C. On 29 October 2024 the global temperature anomaly compared to the 1979-2000 average was 1.41 °C and around 2-2.1 °C above the pre-industrial baseline.

A few weeks later, we see that global temperatures have come down by about 0.4 C, compared to 2023, see chart below. During the droughts, the biotic pump had collapsed, the rivers were so low that the trees could not suck water to properly photosynthesize and evapotranspire. This gave immediate increase in temperatures and also the heat over the tropical Atlantic was not transported to the Amazon. Maybe 70% of rain over the Amazon is recycled moisture from evapotranspiration, the rest is moisture blown in from the trade winds. Right now, with the shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which brings moisture, rains have returned to the southern Amazon and a weak biotic pump is reappearing. So the airconditioner is functioning a bit again.

If we keep on focusing only on carbon and don't include the cooiing capacity of forests and especially the tropical rainforests in the models, we will misdiagnose a large part of the heating up of the planet and go on hacking away at our airconditioners while staring at the Keeling curve. 

Best,

Rob de Laet 

Member of the EcoRestoration Alliance

Fellow of Global Evergreening Alliance

Co-founder of Senang Eco Services

WhatsApp: +55 71 992617846

On Friday 22 November 2024 at 08:15:27 CET, 'Dorota Retelska' via The Proud Holobionts <theproudh...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Dear All,

Thanks for the Berkeley Earth update. We're at the end of El Nino, temperatures should go down but they don't, they're stay extremely high and might even keep climbing,

It's very worrisome. Several scientists, James E. Hansen, the WMO and Johan Rockström noted that the global warming accelerates, James E. Hansen calculated that at current warming pace will reach 2°C in 2040 and then, in 2023, exhausted ecosystems emitted CO2 in fires and in total absorbed less CO2 which might lead to a further acceleration. Climate change might worsen fast.  Forests are a great idea, they also store carbon in fertile soil, 

Best,

Dorota Retelska, Ph.D. 

Le vendredi 22 novembre 2024 à 08:02:15 UTC+1, Tarcisio Bonotto <tarcisio...@gmail.com> a écrit :

It is true that from 10,000 years ago to today, approximately 2 billion hectares of forest have disappeared. In addition to our emissions, this has raised global temperatures. Europe has around 6% of global CO2 emissions, even if they went to zero, we would only have solved 1% of the world's warming problems. Why, in addition to reducing emissions, not think about restoring millions of hectares of forests?

Tarcisio

Il ven 22 nov 2024, 05:14 Matias Schüttenberg <mats...@gmail.com> ha scritto:

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Berkeley Earth <ad...@berkeleyearth.org>
Date: Thu, Nov 21, 2024, 17:51
Subject: October 2024 Temperature Update
To: <mats...@gmail.com>

With two months remaining, 2024 is nearly certain to finish as the warmest year on record.

Included in this newsletter:  Findings from our October 2024 Temperature Update A new paper in Nature evaluates the cold-bias in the early 20th-century ocean temp record New research from Berkeley Earth at the AGU conference in December Join us in advancing open data by supporting Berkeley Earth in your end-of-year giving. October 2024 Temperature Update: 2024 on track to be another record-setting year   Globally, October 2024 was nominally the second warmest October since directly measured instrumental records began in 1850. October 2024 was measured as 1.69 ± 0.09 °C (3.04 ± 0.17 °F) above the corresponding 1850-1900 average. This is 0.02 °C (0.04 °F) cooler than the October 2023 record, but as this difference is much smaller than the corresponding uncertainty, October 2024 was effectively tied with 2023 for the warmest October. All other October averages prior to 2023 have been at least 0.25 °C (0.45 °F) cooler.     Sixteen of the last seventeen months have set or effectively tied the monthly global temperature record, with only September 2024 serving as an exception. In addition, October 2024 marks the sixteenth consecutive month at least 1.5 °C warmer than the corresponding 1850 to 1900 monthly average. The 12-month moving average of global mean temperature now stands at 1.64 ± 0.07 °C (2.95 ± 0.13 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. We are likely at or near the peak for this warming event, as relative cooling is expected soon following the recent end of El Niño.   One of the Paris Agreement ambitions has been to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the preindustrial baseline. That goal is defined in reference to the average climate over many years, so a year or two above 1.5 °C does not automatically mean that the target has been exceeded. However, recent anomalies above 1.5 °C are a sign that the Earth is getting close to that limit. It is likely that global warming will cause the long-term average to exceed 1.5 °C during the late 2020s or early 2030s unless significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are achieved soon. Spatial Variation October 2024 continues the ongoing pattern of widespread warmth, with a few important exceptions. Particularly warm conditions were present in parts of Asia, North Africa, North America, South America, the Arctic, the western North Atlantic, and North Pacific. We estimate that 7.2% of the Earth’s surface experienced their locally warmest October average (including 7.6% of land areas), and 85% of the Earth’s surface was significantly warm when compared to their local average during the period 1951 to 1980. By contrast, none of the Earth’s surface had their locally coldest October. Considered in terms of the average over the last 12 months (November 2023 to October 2024), record warmth has been widespread, especially in the tropics. Large parts of South America, Africa, Southeast Asia, Europe, Canada, the Atlantic and Indian Ocean have had a 12-month average that is higher than any previous November to October period. No regions have significant relative cooling during this period. 2024: On track for a record finish With ten months completed, 2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year since instrumental measurements began, moderately exceeding the record set in 2023. The first ten months of 2024 started with many large anomalies, though this is expected to cool somewhat at the end of 2024. The El Niño that began in 2023 provided significant warmth for both 2023 and 2024. It is typically true that the second year after an El Niño emerges is warmer than the first, though that is not guaranteed. The statistical approach that we use, looking at conditions in recent months, now believes that 2024 has a >99% chance of being warmer than 2023, making this outcome almost certain. The ultimate annual average will still somewhat depend on the magnitude and timing of a possible La Niña at the end of 2024, but such an event is expected to be too late and too weak to prevent 2024 from becoming the newest record warm year. This forecast probability of record warmth is substantially increased from the approximately 50-60% chance previously estimated in January-April, but only slightly changed from the 92% chance of a record estimated in June and the 96% chance estimated in July.   The full text of our June 2024 Temperature Update is available via the link below, including an updated discussion of the ENSO outlook and the impacts of the 2023-2024 El Niño cycle.  Click below to access the full report.    October 2024 Temperature Update  Evaluating bias in the early-20th century ocean temperature record   A new paper published this week in Nature, co-authored by Berkeley Earth Chief Scientist Dr. Robert Rohde, reveals that global sea surface temperature (SST) records from 1900–1930 are significantly cooler than previously thought, suggesting an unaccounted cold bias in early observations. By reconstructing global mean surface temperatures (GMST) using modern statistical methods, the research provides a clearer understanding of historical temperature trends. This correction refines estimates of early-twentieth-century warming and enhances the alignment between observed and simulated global temperatures. Uncertainties in the historic ocean temperature record are the main limitation on global average temperature measurement accuracy for most of the last 170 years, and yet accurate historical temperature records are critical for understanding climate variability and informing policy decisions on climate change.   Early records, which combine sea surface and land temperatures, are fraught with significant uncertainties due to changing measurement techniques and incomplete data. By identifying and correcting these biases, this research better aligns historical trends with observed warming patterns, with implications for understanding the pace of global warming and the accuracy of future projections. While the estimates of total warming since the preindustrial period dis little changed by these revisions, this research does highlight the need to for continued research to better understand past changes, especially in the oceans. A more detailed analysis of the findings can be found in Dr. Rohde's extended thread on ocean temperature uncertainties, available here.  The full text of the paper (open access) is available at Nature via the link below.  (First image ©Sippel et al., reproduced courtesy of Nature; second image ©Robert A Rohde.) Read More New Research from Berkeley Earth at AGU 2024  Berkeley Earth will be presenting new research at two sessions of the AGU 2024 conference in December, including:  Monday, December 9th - Session GC045 - Climate Downscaling and Wether Post-Processing: Development, Evaluation and Application Tuesday, December 10th - Session GC23K-02 - Record Global Temperature in 2023: A Review of Anomalous Temperature Patterns and Possible Contributing Factors More information to follow.    If you will be in Washington DC for the conference and are interested in meeting with representatives from Berkeley Earth, please send a note to ad...@berkeleyearth.org.  Berkeley Earth is a California-based 501c3 non-profit research organization renowned for its commitment to independent climate science and analysis. Founded in 2013, the organization has led the development and application of AI and advanced statistical methods to the analysis of environmental data. Berkeley Earth's approach to climate science combines rigorous data analysis with a transparent methodology, providing clear and unbiased information about global temperature changes and their implications. Referenced by the UN IPCC and contributing regularly to leading climate journalism, Berkeley Earth plays a crucial role in informing public understanding and policymaking on global temperature trends.  Donate Now Copyright © 2024 Berkeley Earth, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you opted in via our website. Our mailing address is: Berkeley Earth 2831 Garber St Berkeley, CA 94705-1314 Add us to your address book

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From: Svet Zabelin

Sent: Saturday, November 23, 2024 4:49 PM

Subject: Fwd: [Holobionts] Record heat goes on

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