Don’t Go Far Off
ECO is thinking of the great Chilean poet
Pablo Neruda as we look forward to visiting ‘El Pais de los poeta’ - the
land of poets. As Neruda said, “Don't go far off, not even for
a day, because -- because -- I don't know how to say it: a day is long and
I will be waiting for you, as in an empty station when the trains are parked off
somewhere else, asleep.”
And while we haven’t seen much great poetry
in SB50’s draft decision texts, ECO is happy to help out as we head towards
Santiago.
ECO did have great hopes that Parties would at least agree on a
deadline for adopting a decision on common timeframes and summarizes (very
poetically) the draft conclusion on this agenda item for you:
And thanks to some Parties,
They decided right there and
then,
The best thing to do,
Was to meet again and again.
To be
clear, ECO believes that Parties need to come to a decision on
five-year-common-timeframes at COP25. And therefore to Chile we say — we welcome
your leadership and expect you to take us to adopting a decision in beautiful
Santiago.
ECO appreciates the hard work of negotiators on the Article 6
text.
Let us put what we need in crystal clear prose: phase out Clean
Development Mechanism credits, adopt strong social and environmental safeguards,
avoid double-counting and include corresponding adjustments for all transfers.
However, ECO is concerned that to some decision makers, the text agreed at SB50
might be as challenging as a dadaist poem to make sense of. ECO, therefore,
hopes the Pre-COP in Costa Rica delivers a good basis for a decision on robust
rules in Santiago.
ECO is not sure if the ‘gentleperson’s agreement’ that
kicked off discussions on the IPCC resembles a tragedy or absurdity. Or maybe
even both? Starting from its ridiculous and offensive title, it is the kind of
old-fashioned patriarchal story which never should have been written - like the
Twilight novels. By not allowing a substantive discussion, Saudi Arabia clearly
violated its part of this shady deal. To ECO, it's obvious that if you stand
with science, then you reject this gentleperson’s agreement.
The authors
of common reporting tables (the common tabular formats), on the other hand,
might not win a Nobel prize for literature with their work, but let’s admit it,
on busy days you sometimes enjoy less drama - so kudos for the constructive and
tireless work.
And for those working on the Warsaw International
Mechanism for Loss and Damage, the work has just begun with a new call for
submissions. ECO hopes countries take less time than George R.R. Martin is
taking for the Game of Thrones novels and submit their views well in time for
ministers to have an informed discussion at the pre-COP in October.
The
big finance story, while not present in the agenda, is pretty present in
everyone’s minds: it’s the GCF replenishment. We are looking for those heroes
that will make the best of the next Board meeting and adopt great decisions that
will improve the functioning of the fund. ECO will remind contributor
countries again and again that at least doubling their individual pledges is the
least we expect in order to enhance ambition, regardless of other discussions
happening at the board level. Also remember we are one year away from the magic
moment, where developed countries should have mobilized USD$100 billion in a
transparent way. Finance might seem all over the place once again, but we know
that without predictable support, increasing ambition will not be possible.
ECO does not want to leave you without at least one more fabulous
quote from Neruda who wrote: “You can cut all the flowers but you cannot keep
Spring from coming.” Your leaders are invited to New York to come with actions
to address the climate crisis we are in. If they do not deliver what the people
and the planet need, we will hold them accountable and ensure there are
consequences. With Pablo Neruda in mind and apologies to Game of Thrones fans:
Spring is coming.
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Over all the Talk About Paris – Don’t Forget to Ratify KP2!
We find ourselves in a paradoxical situation. The first
paradox is that the world’s glaciers are now moving quicker than the Parties to
the UNFCCC. The Greenland ice sheet has started doing something we were
expecting it to do in 2090. Meanwhile, a large number of countries still have
not done what we’ve expect them to do since 2014. Slow and steady just won’t do
when we’re trying to honour treaties we have created to fight the climate
emergency. Now you’re moving slower than a glacier.
Remember the
table below, Parties? We welcome Kuwait, Lao People's Democratic Republic,
Lesotho, Mongolia, Montenegro, and Paraguay - countries, who have all ratified
the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol (KP2) since COP24. We also welcome the
references to the need for the entry into force of the KP2 made in sessions such
as SBSTA item 6 on matters relating to science and review. Given how much
importance Saudi Arabia puts on this matter and how it’s an opportunity to hold
developed countries to their commitments, ECO hopes to be able to welcome Saudi
Arabia as a KP2 ratifier in the very near future. Can we get this done pre-2020?
We still need 16 more Parties to sign up to reach the threshold of ¾ of
Parties to the KP to secure entry into force. This is where the second paradox
comes in: there is an overflowing pool of excellent candidates that could fill
the 16 countries gap. Some of these countries are amongst the most vocal on the
urgent need for Doha ratification - as you can see from ECO’s helpful table. So
what are you waiting for - step up and walk the talk!
Remember also
that failure to ratify and implement the KP2 sets a worrying precedent for the
Paris Agreement and other international treaties.

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Your 101 Guide to Ambition Parties [and
political leaders] are clearly still struggling with the notion of ambition,
despite all the guidance provided to them by the IPCC, NGOs, think tanks, the UN
Secretary General, Greta Thunberg, and despite the increasing need to address
impacts of climate change all around the world.
ECO has lost count of
how many times we’ve said that science’s role is to inform ambition. And we’re
not referring only to the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. New scientific studies
(which missed the SR1.5 deadline for consideration) remind us that climate
change could be happening faster than we originally thought. One recent example
shows that if emissions remain unabated, Greenland’s ice will melt at higher
rates than initially expected. The climate forecasts are now up to 80 percent
higher than previous estimates of 35 inches (89 cm) of sea level rise. Europe is
again this summer experiencing a heat wave - all you need to do is to step
outside of the conference halls for a bit of empirical research.
ECO has
talked a lot about it, but since we’re not seeing ambition from you, we feel the
need to unpack what we mean by climate ambition. Bluntly put, we want a credible
and solid response to the climate emergency from all countries based on their
different capacities and resources. A response to the demands of youth and the
public outcry would include the following elements:
Mitigation: we need
significantly enhanced NDCs that are 1.5°C compatible, ready for implementation,
reflecting the country’s long-term strategies, and informed by science and in
line with equity. The term "mitigation" itself can hide what's really needed.
Fossil fuels are the largest cause of the climate crisis. So in order to be
ambitious you need to set goals to rapidly phase out the extraction and burning
of fossil fuels and invest in a just transition to 100% renewable energy. You
need to set ambitious short-terms targets of halving CO2 emissions by 2030.
Developed countries should move fastest and assist developing countries. Justice
and equity are essential to making this work. ECO wonders what is holding you
back? ECO thinks it’s your lack of political will rather than the availability
of technological solutions.
Tackle the impacts: ah, you thought
mitigation was all you had to do. But no, we also want increased support and
means of implementation (aka finance, capacity building, and technology) for
adaptation and for addressing loss and damage to the vulnerable developing
countries, its people, and ecosystems.
When considering new ambitious
climate initiatives ECO encourages you to think about restoring ecosystems and
protecting existing ones. Protecting and restoring biodiversity rich ecosystems
can close around one third of the mitigation gap and will strengthen adaptive
capacity and resilience in a climate changed world.
And there is actually
more: ECO would like everyone to be involved at all levels. Your national
climate plans should be built with and for your entire society. It therefore
needs to come with public participation (which is also a human right),
accountability (willingness to hold other countries accountable for meeting
their pledges) and gender responsiveness.
Luckily for the planet, this year you have more than one opportunity to
increase your climate ambition and show leadership! It’s not only about the COP
in Chile in December. In September, at the UNSG Summit, ECO would want to see
meaningful commitments that put us on a climate safe path by 2020. “Bring plans,
not speeches,” said UN Secretary-General Guterres. We’re with him for the
Summit. For COP 25 and beyond, we need plans, we need transformative
action.
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Article 6 Wrap-up: How to Fly Above the Hot
Air
On this final day of SB50, ECO would like to remind Parties about
the importance of strong environmental integrity provisions in the Article 6
rules.
It is fundamentally critical that emissions transfers under
Article 6 prevent double counting. Article 6 can only work properly if the rules
ensure that double counting is avoided both in 6.2 and 6.4, and that
corresponding adjustments are applied for mitigation outcomes both inside and
outside the scope of a host country’s NDC. This must apply regardless of where
the credits are used - i.e. for NDC and non-NDC purposes alike.
ECO
continues to hear from some Parties that corresponding adjustments for
mitigation outcomes used toward purposes other than NDCs — like aviation’s
carbon market, the ICAO CORSIA — are not important. ECO strongly disagrees.
Leaving non-NDC adjustments out of the picture could punch a hole in the Paris
Agreement the size of an A380 jumbo jet.
And if Parties allow Certified
Emission Reductions (CERs), Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) or Emission Reduction
Units (ERUs) to transfer over without any conditions, it would punch a hole in
the Paris Agreement big enough for a whole airline’s fleet. Allowing activities
and methodologies from the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms to carry over without
conditions would widen that enough to add another airline’s fleet! Why would
Kyoto Protocol credits be bad for the system? It’s simple physics. It’s hard to
get lift-off with “hot air” all around you.
The environmental
integrity of the mitigation outcomes under Article 6 is fundamental as well
(e.g. emission reductions need to be real, quantified, additional, permanent,
and verified). On the issue of whether mitigation outcomes are real, ECO is
highly concerned with the possibility of non-CO2e metrics being used and
converted into CO2e values for trade between Parties with NDCs measured in
different metrics. The potential to game this conversion process seems enormous.
Environmental integrity for Article 6.4 (and under baseline and
crediting systems that might fall under Article 6.2) means adopting strong rules
for setting baselines. Baselines should be set conservatively, well below
business as usual. They could also integrate principles of “best available
technology” (taking into account specific geographical conditions) and/or an
ambitious policy trajectory. Baselines should also be dynamic over time.
Voluntary cooperation under Article 6 should enhance mitigation,
adaptation, and sustainable development, and Parties should make the
operationalization of “overall mitigation in global emissions” a mandatory
process. Enhancing sustainable development doesn’t happen on its own,
either. We need clear human rights-based environmental and social safeguards,
including meaningful public participation, and a strong independent grievance
mechanism to address harms if they do occur. A share of proceeds for the
Adaptation Fund is critical as well.
ECO thanks negotiators for their
hard work at the session. We hope you’re able to look at the good, the bad, and
the ugly to achieve better alignment at the Pre-COP, and be ready to adopt
strong rules for environmental integrity and sustainable development in Santiago
at COP25.
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Climate Finance Abracadabra – ECO’s Watching You!
ECO
is watching how developed countries progress on their climate finance in light
of the annual US$100bn goal. One way to keep track of the direction of provided
mitigation and adaptation finance is using the climate-related development
assistance as reported to the OECD’s DAC, even if the climate finance reported
to the UNFCCC doesn’t necessarily match this data. ECO is fully aware of some
challenges already identified with the methodology. Different analyses have
shown that there is a significant over-reporting in applying the Rio Markers,
which indicate the level of climate relevance. For example, indicating that the
‘principal’ objective (Rio Marker 2) of a project is either adaptation or
mitigation relevant, means 100% of the budget will be counted as climate
relevant. When giving a project Rio Marker 1 (‘significant’), 40 to 50% of the
project is usually counted as climate finance (OECD member countries’ practice
varies), even though it can have only little detectable climate relevance.
Where the European Commission, Sweden, Norway and others are scaling the
Rio-marker 1 ("Significant") with 40%, these “coefficients” differ across
countries from 0% (Portugal) to 100% (Japan, Luxembourg, Greece, Slovak
Republic, Slovenia, Poland and Iceland). This is a sad example of the lack of
common reporting standards among OECD member states. Unfortunately, most of
these countries did not indicate their coefficient (in BR3), except Iceland and
Norway. The source for the other countries is the OECD-CPI report from
2015.
This over-reporting thus leads to an artificially-high amount of
overall reported climate finance. The future common tabular format needs to
explicitly include a column showing the climate-specific part of the budget for
the projects.
ECO has looked closer at 2017 figures, the most
recently available ones, reported to OECD/DAC (based on funding commitments) and
has found interesting results. There seem to be some magicians in certain
countries which have managed to massively increase the finance reported with the
climate markers. Most interesting are the reported numbers on adaptation and the
increase in projects marked with Rio Marker 2. The reporting from Italy shows a
5-fold increase. EU institutions (excluding the European Investment Bank) — the
largest contributor in absolute terms—had an increase of more than 70% in 2017
compared to 2016. So can we assume that in one year the EU institutions have
increased their 100% adaptation-relevant projects by 70%? The list of other
donor countries that increased their funding by more than 100% includes Norway,
Spain, Portugal, Poland and Luxembourg.
ECO would applaud if these
numbers reflected an actual increase in adaptation finance from these countries.
However, as we approach 2020, some countries might feel the need to round up
some numbers to ”fulfill” the US$100bn target. Developed countries will get to
their next climate finance reporting under the UNFCCC by the end of 2019, and
the OECD/DAC numbers are one important input to that. ECO suggests that
developing countries ask their counterparts whether this is real money or just
advanced (almost magical) accounting exercises. How has this increase in climate
finance been felt on the ground where it is highly needed? Navigating the
climate crisis would be a lot easier if reported support actually reflected the
real world.
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ECO Calls Out Saudi Arabia for Bullying
Conduct, Parties for Their Silence
Last Friday, ECO witnessed
a negotiator from Saudi Arabia repeatedly bully and intimidate the female
co-facilitator at the SBSTA informal consultations on SR1.5C. While a Party is
entitled to express its views, this Saudi negotiator’s vociferous personal
demands for an apology or admission of wrongdoing from the facilitator is
entirely unacceptable—and tantamount to bullying and harassment.
What is
more, no other Party in the room spoke out to oppose the Saudi conduct and stop
the out-right harassment.
Sadly, these moments where Parties freely
intimidate others and bystander Parties remain silent are neither rare nor
openly acknowledged during climate negotiations. It feeds into the pervasive and
toxic culture of discrimination against women that the UNFCCC’s 2018 “Code of
Conduct to address harassment at UNFCCC Conferences” was precisely designed to
combat--and that we as a community do not tolerate.
The Saudi
negotiator’s behaviour and bystander Parties’ silence are acutely problematic
because they contravene the very values that the Paris Agreement espouses:
equity, respect for human rights, gender equality and the empowerment of women.
As a climate community, practicing these values means standing up against
bullying, harassment, and any other forms of abusive treatment and violence
against women and all delegates within the walls of the UNFCCC space.
In
response, civil society members have lodged a formal complaint reporting the
Saudi negotiator to the UNFCCC for breaching the Code of Conduct regarding
harassment, which explicitly expresses that meetings should be held in a
professional, respectful and harassment-free environment.
We, as civil
society, do not tolerate such reprehensible aggression. The question remains
whether other Parties will stand with us as well.
ECO has observed that loss and damage negotiators have been working
hard here to find an agreement on the Terms of Reference (ToR) for the review of
the Warsaw Mechanism. The heatwave in Europe hopefully has inserted pressure to
come to an agreement (hm...is that the reason why “one party” did not accept
reference to the IPCC reports? Given the overwhelming real-time impacts of
climate change happening now everywhere, this Party may have found the IPCC
reports no longer necessary…? ECO does not at all support any rationale that
aims to disregard the IPCC!).
Now it is time for negotiators, when they
arrive home the day after tomorrow, to get prepared for the next round of
submissions — wherever you may spend your holidays, you may find inspiration
from some relaxing.
ECO would have loved to see the ToRs being more
clearly guided by the needs of vulnerable countries, its people and ecosystems,
for whom the WIM has been set up. But even after so many years in the process,
ECO still learned something new: the review will take place even in the absence
of the ToRs. So in case Parties do not manage to agree on the ToR, each Party
could proceed on its own discretion. Agreed ToRs are of course much more
preferable!
So, ECO will look for the submissions to speak more clearly
to options to provide the resourcing to both the WIM and to vulnerable countries
to confront, and recover from, losses and damages associated to the impacts of
climate change.
ECO would like to encourage everyone to submit their
views early, before the Pre-COP, so ministers can come well-informed and advance
the review discussions on the political level. There would be no excuse not to
involve ministers in a targeted manner on the WIM review. A strong WIM outcome
would constitute a key element for a successful COP25!
And finally
a reminder in particular to big emitters: the more your revised NDCs and your
climate actions will be compatible with 1.5°C, the less you have to worry about
others claiming loss and damage finance from you!