Welcome back to HEATED, a newsletter for people who are pissed off about the climate crisis. If this work matters to you, the best way to support it is to become a paid subscriber. It's time to embrace climate conspiracyTrump’s Venezuela oil play exposes what climate reporting has documented for decades—if we’re willing to say it out loud.
I hate conspiracy theories. I always have. As a journalist, they’re usually the thing I’m pushing back against. And yet, for a few years now, I’ve found myself saying something slightly heretical on panels and in conversations with other reporters: we need to start engaging in more overtly conspiratorial language. Because the actual story of climate change—the one we’ve reported exhaustively—is one about coordinated power, deliberate deception, and a bought-off government that repeatedly acts to promote an industry that is poisoning humans and the environment for profit. It just so happens to be a real conspiracy. The
Trump administration’s recent invasion of Venezuela has put this
conspiracy at the top of the news cycle. Trump framed the attack explicitly as an oil play, bragging about
handing Venezuela’s oil infrastructure to U.S. companies. He said
he privately briefed oil executives in advance of the
attack, but did not inform Congress. He made clear that if U.S.
companies were hesitant to enter Venezuela, U.S. taxpayers would step in to shoulder
the financial risk. If
there were ever a moment to embrace climate conspiratorial language, it’s
now. If we don’t, we’ll miss a rare chance to show the public who the
government really works for, and who pays the
price. You don’t ever need to pay for HEATED—it’s free. But if you have the means, paid subscriptions keep us alive and independent. A climate script for the conspiracy-mindedYou
may think that the biggest climate conspiracy is chemtrails. You’d be wrong.
A
NASA graph, since removed by the Trump administration, shows that the
amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (blue line) has increased along
with human emissions of carbon dioxide (gray line) since the start of the
Industrial Revolution. The
U.S. government is actively trying to cover up these numbers. Since taking
office, Trump has proposed shutting down the country’s longest-running carbon
dioxide monitoring station. He’s secretly directed NASA
employees to draw up plans to destroy two satellites that monitor global carbon
dioxide levels. And he’s moved to end the program that requires
fossil fuel companies to track and report greenhouse gas emissions
from more than 8,000 facilities. The
real reason the government is doing this is simple: Because it’s bought
and paid for by Big Oil, the most profitable and powerful industry in the
world. Before the election, Trump promised oil executives he
would give them whatever they wanted in exchange for campaign support,
floating a $1 billion price tag. How much
the industry actually gave is impossible to know, thanks to dark money and
opaque PACs. But from what we can see, Big Oil spent $219 million to influence the
2024 election, with at least $75 million going directly to Trump’s
campaign and affiliated PACs. Eighty-eight percent of oil and gas money
went to Republicans. Trump explicitly stated his intention for the U.S. to control Venezuela’s oil. He laid it out plain as day: “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.” Trump
didn’t tell Congress about the Venezuela attack before it happened. But he
did claim to tell oil executives. Let that sink in. The president reportedly informed private oil companies about a
military invasion before informing the people’s elected
representatives. So who does the government work for, exactly?
Now, plenty of people have correctly pointed out that it will be difficult and expensive for U.S. oil companies to take over Venezuela’s oil. But that’s much less of a problem when the government works for you. After industry sources told CNN that oil companies “were reluctant to commit to reinvesting” in Venezuela, Trump immediately fell over himself to offer to help them—with taxpayer money, of course. Trump said oil companies rebuilding Venezuela’s infrastructure will “get reimbursed by us, or through revenue,” with the U.S. government potentially subsidizing efforts by energy companies to rebuild the country’s oil industry. Oil companies are trying to publicly act like they don’t want Venezuela’s oil. But here’s what’s indisputable. Chevron’s stock soared as much as 10 percent after the invasion. Exxon and ConocoPhillips shares rose around 3 to 4 percent. Oil service companies like SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton jumped between 4 percent and 9 percent. And U.S. refiners Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, PBF Energy, and Valero Energy were up between 3.4 percent and 9.3 percent. Another thing that’s indisputable: Venezuela’s new acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, is the country’s oil minister. She’s long been the go-to contact for senior oil executives, with strong ties to Republicans in the oil industry who actively pushed for her to lead post-Maduro Venezuela. I’m sure that’s just a crazy coincidence. Perhaps all of this could be defensible if the outcome for ordinary Americans were actually positive. Trump insists it will be—that oil expansion means jobs, security, and prosperity. That claim is the heart of the conspiracy. It’s not that Trump and the oil industry are working together; that part is in plain sight. It’s that the public is being told this partnership exists for our benefit, when in reality it exists to preserve fossil fuel dominance in a world where that dominance is threatened by people simply understanding the truth—that oil and gas pollution is transforming the climate, making us sicker, poorer, and less safe. That’s why Trump works to obscure emissions data, suppress climate science, and discredit anyone who explains the harm. It’s why he’s willing to spend taxpayer money, deploy military force, and rewrite foreign policy. Not because any of this serves the public interest, but because all of it serves the same goal: keeping fossil fuels flowing, even as the scientific case for transitioning away from them becomes overwhelming. And
doing that requires a public that is less informed, more economically
strained, and easier to distract—too busy coping with rising costs and
mounting crises to demand a transition that would reduce pollution, lower
long-term costs, and make wars over energy
unnecessary. HEATED is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Further reading:
Catch of the Day: Grey cat Ethel would never roll over on her belief that everyone deserves a safe climate. But she would maybe roll over for a belly rub. Thanks
to reader Agnes for the
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2026 Emily Atkin |