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Jul 25, 2025, 10:40:52 AMJul 25
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Друзья, к вопросу об актуальности смены приоритетов.
Копия письма Анастасии Макарьевой о приложении концепции биотической регуляции к одному из острых вопросов.
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От: Anastassia Makarieva <bioticre...@substack.com>
Date: чт, 24 июл. 2025 г. в 23:57
Subject: Fight for Baikal
A Glimpse into Russian Socio-Ecological Processes
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Fight for Baikal

A Glimpse into Russian Socio-Ecological Processes

Jul 24
 
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Lake Baikal is the deepest and clearest lake on Earth, surrounded by natural forests. Like nature everywhere, Baikal’s environment is under increasing pressure. While ecologically conscious Americans are fighting the Fix our Forests Act, Brazilians hope to stop the “Devastation Bill”, Indonesians are desperate about the MIFEE project (the largest-scale deforestation project currently planned by any state on Earth), people in our country also face their own ecological struggles.

A couple of years ago, a law was proposed that would open Baikal’s forests to sanitary clearcutting. Sanitary clearcutting (сплошные санитарные рубки) means the complete removal of all trees in a designated area, officially justified as a measure to prevent the spread of pests, disease, or wildfires. Unlike selective sanitary logging, which targets only damaged or infected trees, sanitary clearcutting removes entire forest stands, including healthy trees. In practice, this approach has often been used as a pretext for large-scale illegal logging disguised as forest health management, especially in ecologically sensitive or protected areas.

In the Russian ecological narrative, clearcutting has become a synonym for allowing forests to be completely destroyed or annihilated. According to current law, clearcuts are prohibited (although we know that selective sanitary thinning can also pose significant risks).

Recently, during a lecture one of us gave for Bio4Climate’s course “Water and Climate”, a question was asked about whether Russia can be looked up to in terms of protecting their forests. In another recent interview, we encountered the opinion that Russian forests are relatively safe. These are signals that information about ecological awareness in Russia is quite scarce. Meanwhile, we have our own ups and downs. Even though strategically we have been losing the fight for nature, as all other nations have in recent years, there are some local positive developments that give hope that a major ethical shift, a phase transition in how people view nature, cannot be entirely ruled out.

We are not ecological activists, since our main work is scientific research. However, we are strongly motivated to provide scientific support to those who work to protect nature (and this work does involve a lot of hardship). Today we will share with you two open letters: one from a Russian academician in favor of the law, and another signed by five academicians opposing the law. This will give you an idea of the debates currently taking place and how people feel about nature. In the concluding section, a brief analysis is provided of the scientific debate between these differing views, framed from the perspective of the biotic regulation concept.

Open letter supporting clearcutting in Baikal Forests

This letter was published in a newspaper under the title

“Cut or Not to Cut”: The Russian Academy of Sciences Supports Buryatia’s Position on Forest Logging

The emphasis is ours.

On June 23 of this year, a meeting was held at the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chaired by RAS President Academician Gennady Krasnikov and Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Alexander Kozlov, to discuss one of the most pressing issues for the residents of Buryatia — the draft law on logging in the Central Ecological Zone of the Baikal Natural Territory.

As always, there were speeches proposing to postpone the adoption of the law and to conduct new studies. However, in the end, the position of the representatives of Buryatia was supported — a position presenting arguments in favor of endorsing their version of the draft law.

  1. The actions of the residents of the Baikal region are guided by the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which states: “The individual and his rights and freedoms are the highest value. The recognition, observance, and protection of the rights and freedoms of man and citizen shall be the obligation of the state” (Article 2). Furthermore, Article 9 adds: “Land and other natural resources shall be used and protected in the Russian Federation as the basis of life and activity of the peoples living on the corresponding territory.”

  2. However, the most important circumstance related to such environmental restrictions is that the ban on construction, fishing, firewood harvesting, non-timber forest use, and more has led to a sharp population decline in the coastal areas of Lake Baikal, an increase in mortality, and a decrease in birth rates. In the 25 years since the adoption of the Law “On the Protection of Lake Baikal,” the population of the four coastal districts of Buryatia has decreased by 25%. In the city of Severobaikalsk alone, while the number of young people has dropped, the number of pensioners has tripled. Trees can regrow — but the people who have moved to Moscow will not return. As a result, to meet the demands of the growing tourist flow, it is already necessary to bring in migrant workers — just like in Moscow.

  3. Land-use restrictions on property rights have also led to political grievances among the local population. During the 2020 vote on amendments to the Russian Constitution, the residents of Olkhonsky District — who had been stripped of land rights and live within the Central Ecological Zone of Lake Baikal — were the only population in all of Russia to vote against adopting the Constitution.

  4. In nature, a forest must either rot or burn. There is no third option, and only rational forest management can preserve the forest's productivity. Moreover, it seems our opponents haven’t even read the Russian Forest Code, where Article 23.5, Paragraph 3, states: “Clearcutting shall be recognized as felling in which forests are harvested with the retention of certain trees and shrubs for forest regeneration, followed by artificial reforestation measures.”

And Paragraph 4 of the same article clearly states: “Clearcutting is only permitted on the condition that reforestation measures are planned and subsequently implemented on the specified forest plots.” In simple terms: if there is no clearcutting, no one will restore the forest.

  1. Some opponents point to potential conflicts with international environmental organizations. Unlike certain State Duma deputies, I do not have foreign bank accounts, children, or wives abroad. Therefore, I fully agree with Alexander III, who said, “If the West criticizes us, it means we’re doing everything right.”

  2. Meanwhile, this artificial conflict between the interests of the local population and the desire of the “greens” to “protect” Lake Baikal — even from its own residents, tourists, and entrepreneurs fulfilling the President’s directive to develop the tourism industry — can be easily resolved. It is enough to introduce the following amendment to Article 11 of the Law “On the Protection of Lake Baikal,” titled “Specifics of the use, protection, safeguarding, and reproduction of forests in the Central Ecological Zone”:
    “In the Central Ecological Zone of the Baikal Natural Territory, only logging aimed at the maintenance and development of transport and social infrastructure, as well as for meeting the essential needs of the local population, shall be permitted.”

All such facilities are listed in the draft law — and, I hope, no one opposes them.

Thus, all objections raised by the numerous “defenders” of Baikal are rendered moot. It is also worth noting that the draft law explicitly lists all specific locations and volumes of selective logging, which are many times smaller than the annual natural loss of forest due to wildfires and pest outbreaks. Unfortunately, this fact is consistently ignored by all opponents of the bill, who continue to speak of non-existent clearcuts.

It should also be noted that the conclusion issued by the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation is filled with suspicion toward local residents, whose activities are allegedly aimed at large-scale clearcutting and other unlawful actions. Moreover, the document contains not a single word about protecting the rights and interests of the people living along the shores of Lake Baikal — as if they simply do not exist. Even the law itself is titled “On the Protection of Lake Baikal.” But the real question is: from whom is Baikal being protected? From the local population? From tourists? From members of the State Duma?

It is worth mentioning that Public Chamber representative E.A. Sharoykina offered an apology and stated that she had no intention of restricting the local population’s right to a dignified life.

It was also noted that any such poorly designed legal restrictions on local economic activity reduce the investment potential for tourism development on Lake Baikal — a priority destination in Russia’s “Five Seas and Lake Baikal” tourism project approved by the President.

Let me emphasize once again: many of our problems in Russia stem from people not doing their own jobs professionally. For some reason, no one asks me how to save the Volga or Lake Ladoga. And yet, even those with no background in ecology seem to “know” what should be done on Baikal.

In the end, we must not act “holier than the Pope” or assume that people living on the lake’s shores are somehow “enemies of Baikal” and that its salvation depends on orders from Moscow or Murmansk.

Meanwhile, this year the government adopted a resolution allowing the lake’s water level to be altered by more than two meters to suit the energy sector. This is an even bigger “ecological bomb” for Baikal. In Mongolia, a hydropower project is underway on Baikal’s main tributary. Recent amendments to Russia’s Water Code now hold landowners legally responsible for flooding and shoreline erosion! Under this law, the Baikal Nature Reserve is already being prosecuted for shoreline erosion near its visitor center.

One gets the impression that the government and parliament of Russia are not listening to the people who actually live on Baikal’s shores — and instead are representing some unknown interests while artificially escalating the environmental situation. If this continues, local residents might have no choice but to appeal to the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, citing violations of their rights under Articles 2 and 9 of the Constitution. I sincerely hope it does not come to blocking the Trans-Siberian Railway.

Ultimately, drawing from the experience of planned economy days, I propose holding a joint regional conference on the shores of Baikal, involving local party leaders and industry representatives, to discuss all aspects of Baikal’s challenges — prioritizing the voices of people who actually live by the lake.

After all, during the Soviet era, Baikal’s environmental problems were effectively addressed and people lived in comfort. Since then, dozens of industrial facilities in the Baikal basin have closed, agriculture has collapsed, the Baikal pulp and paper plant was shut down, industrial logging ceased, and pollution has drastically decreased. Yet some people — seemingly in search of self-promotion or research grants — keep shouting “Baikal is dying!” and calling for the resettlement of local communities. We’ve heard that slogan “No person – no problem” somewhere before.

In conclusion, I support the Russian Academy of Sciences’ position recognizing the situation and calling for accelerated parliamentary hearings. It must also be stressed that:

  • legislation should not regulate technical forestry procedures;

  • most objections to the draft law arise from opponents misreading the Russian Forest Code, which actually addresses all the concerns raised by “green” activists.

As a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, a senator, and a local resident who understands this issue better than anyone, I state with full responsibility: stop interfering in our lives — we will preserve our home, Baikal, ourselves. And President Vladimir Putin has already supported the appeal from the Head of Buryatia, Alexei Tsydenov, calling to put an end to the debate and pass the proposed law. After all, ecology is not a science of prohibitions — it is a science of home and how to take care of it.

In closing, RAS President G.Y. Krasnikov and Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology A.A. Kozlov agreed that logging must be permitted to support both forest and human life along Baikal’s shores. Hopefully, this authoritative opinion of the Russian Academy of Sciences will put an end to the long-standing “to cut or not to cut” debate — in favor of the constitutional rights of the local population, who will now build roads, flood protection systems, improve their homes, defend themselves against wildfires, and live up to Russian standards — or perhaps even better.

Arnold Tulokhonov, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Member of the Federation Council (2013–2017)

Open letter opposing clearcutting in Baikal Forests

To the Chairman of the State Duma
of the Federal Assembly
of the Russian Federation
V.V. Volodin

Copies to:
Chairman of the State Duma Committee
on Ecology, Natural Resources,
and Environmental Protection
D.N. Kobylkin

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee
on Ecology, Natural Resources, and Environmental Protection
V.A. Fetisov

Chairman of the Subcommittee on the Protection of Lake Baikal
of the State Duma Committee on Ecology, Natural Resources,
and Environmental Protection
N.R. Buduev

On the Risks of Draft Law No. 387575-8 for the Preservation of Lake Baikal’s Unique Ecosystem

Dear Vyacheslav Viktorovich,

We are compelled once again to address you with growing concern over the fate of Lake Baikal and the Baikal Natural Territory—unique sites of Russia’s national heritage.

Currently under consideration by the State Duma is Draft Law No. 387575-8, proposing amendments to Article 25-1 of the Federal Law "On the Protection of Lake Baikal" and Article 11 of the Federal Law "On Environmental Expert Review." The draft law was adopted in its first reading on July 11, 2023, and has caused significant public outcry.

In the time since, numerous scientific and expert forums have voiced concern and presented well-founded arguments regarding this draft law and its environmentally harmful orientation, which poses real ecological risks and threats to Lake Baikal.

It is particularly important to note that the preparation of amendments to the draft law for the second reading has, for the most part, proceeded behind closed doors, disregarding the substantiated positions of the scientific and expert community, including those of the country’s leading research institutions.

In this regard, on June 23, 2025, a meeting was held at the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) under the chairmanship of RAS President G.Ya. Krasnikov, with the participation of the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, A.A. Kozlov, along with a number of leading scientists—experts in forestry and ecology. The meeting focused on discussing the aforementioned amendments, particularly the critically important provision of the draft law that would permit sanitary clearcutting in the Central Ecological Zone of the Baikal Natural Territory (hereinafter, CEZ BNT). It must be emphasized that the current Federal Law “On the Protection of Lake Baikal” prohibits such clearcutting in the CEZ BNT, and the version of the amendments adopted in the first reading does not repeal this ban.

The final protocol of the aforementioned RAS Presidium meeting has not yet been signed and is still under revision. It is all the more surprising, then, that the Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia, without waiting for the official position of the Academy, hastily submitted the existing draft amendments to the Government Commission on Legislative Activity. On July 7, this Commission reviewed the amendments to Draft Federal Law No. 387575-8 prepared by the Ministry. There is reason to believe that these amendments will soon be considered by the relevant State Duma Committee on Ecology, Natural Resources, and Environmental Protection, and then brought to the second and third readings.

The proposed amendments, which would legalize sanitary clearcutting in the Central Ecological Zone of the Baikal Natural Territory (CEZ BNT), are of greatest concern to the scientific community and the broader public.

The justification for lifting the ban on sanitary clearcutting raises serious doubts. Under current forest legislation, in areas where timber harvesting is prohibited, it is still permitted to do the ecological cleanup of non-merchantable wood (known as уборка неликвидной древесины, УНД [when dead wood, e.g., after a windfall, is piled up to be naturally decomposed on the spot — AM]). The fundamental difference between УНД and sanitary clearcutting of dead stands is that with УНД, the wood must remain on-site, whereas sanitary clearcutting allows the timber to be removed and sold commercially.

There are serious grounds to believe that lifting the ban on sanitary clearcutting in forests of exceptional importance for the preservation of Lake Baikal's ecosystem will encourage the destruction of healthy forest stands—for example, by deliberate arson—so that the area can later be declared dead and the timber commercially exploited. It is no secret that in recent years, sanitary logging—including in the Baikal region—has gained a reputation as the perfect cover for illegal logging activities (https://epp.genproc.gov.ru/web/gprf/search?article=58085382; https://forestcomplex.ru/rf-protection/rubki-v-zakaznikah-kak-sanitarnye-meropriyatiya-unichtozhajut-ohranyaemye-lesa/).

Logging operations (including artificial reforestation) in mountainous terrain using heavy machinery also lead to a sharp increase in soil erosion. The more sanitary clearcutting is carried out near Lake Baikal, the more clay, sand, and nutrient-rich materials will be washed into the lake and its tributaries, harming aquatic biological resources.

Another potential consequence of sanitary clearcutting is a significant increase in fire risk in the forests of the CEZ BNT. Such operations would require building more roads, which would increase accessibility to these areas—and, accordingly, the likelihood of fires caused by careless human activity (as the vast majority of wildfires are caused by people).

A distinctive feature of the Baikal Natural Territory is its sharply continental climate, combined with strong, specific wind patterns—partly caused by Lake Baikal itself. Under these conditions, the development and spread of forest fires largely depend on how quickly and evenly specific areas dry out and are exposed to wind.

Sanitary clearcutting creates vast open spaces, which are later replaced by large areas of young, low-growing forest. These young stands do little to block wind and dry out quickly under high fire danger conditions. As a result, the risk of fires spreading over large areas increases significantly. All else being equal, this leads to more extensive wildfires and greater resulting damage.

The issue of whether to lift the ban on clearcutting has been repeatedly discussed by experts at forums hosted by the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation and the Russian Academy of Sciences. The overwhelming majority of specialists participating in these discussions have firmly opposed allowing sanitary clearcutting in the Lake Baikal region.

In addition to legalizing sanitary clearcutting, the proposed draft amendments raise serious concerns about the potential for clearcutting to make way for the construction of tourist infrastructure in special economic zones, which cover more than 4,000 hectares within the CEZ BNT. There is also concern over the possibility of virtually unrestricted road construction in the CEZ BNT.

Experts note that the construction of linear infrastructure—especially roads—inevitably leads to fragmentation of natural systems and, as a consequence, their degradation.

It should also be noted that Lake Baikal is a natural heritage site of global significance, and Russia’s obligations to preserve it arise from the Convention concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage.

On July 7, the 47th session of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee opened. In the Committee’s draft decision (https://whc.unesco.org/document/221412), it is stated, among other things, that the Committee once again expresses concern about the weakening of the legal protection of Baikal at a time when its ecological condition continues to deteriorate. The Committee strongly urges the State Party to ensure and stabilize the legal status of the site to safeguard its outstanding universal value, to assess the impact of the proposed legislative changes, to provide relevant information to the World Heritage Centre, and to avoid any legislative amendments that could lead to adverse consequences.

It is important to keep in mind that the highest leadership of our country regards UNESCO as an important platform for international cooperation. For example, in the Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on Deepening the Comprehensive Partnership and Strategic Interaction (May 16, 2024, during President Vladimir V. Putin’s visit to China), the Parties emphasized the need to further strengthen UNESCO’s capacity as a universal intergovernmental humanitarian forum, to promote a respectful and professional dialogue on this platform aimed at constructive consensus among member states, and to advance a unifying agenda (http://www.kremlin.ru/supplement/6132).

In light of the above, it appears that the current version of Draft Law No. 387575-8 does not meet the goal of preserving the unique ecological system of Lake Baikal, the fulfillment of which, according to the Decree of the President of Russia dated May 7, 2024, No. 309 “On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030 and with a Vision to 2036,” characterizes the achievement of the national goal “Environmental Well-being.”

We kindly ask you, Vyacheslav Viktorovich, to prevent the hasty adoption of Draft Law No. 387575-8 in the form of the current proposed amendments, including refraining from bringing it to the second reading. We believe that the final version of the draft law should address the socio-economic challenges of the region while maintaining an adequate level of legal protection for the unique Baikal ecosystem.

In turn, the scientific and expert community stands ready to actively participate in the further development of this draft law.

Danilov-Danilyan V. I.
Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Earth Sciences Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences on “Land Water Resources,”
Chairman of the Scientific-Expert Council of the All-Russian Society for Nature Conservation,
Co-chair of the International Public Organization “Expert Council on Protected Areas,”
Scientific Director of the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Dgebuadze Yu. Yu.
Chairman of the Russian National Committee for the UNESCO "Man and the Biosphere" Programme,
Head of the Department of General Ecology and Hydrobiology, Lomonosov Moscow State University,
Member of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Rozhnov V. V.
Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences on Ecology of Biological Systems, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Chivilev A. A.
Honored Geographer of the Russian Federation,
Vice-President of the Russian Geographical Society,
Chairman of the Permanent Environmental Commission of the Russian Geographical Society,
Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Lukina N. V.
Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences on Forests,
Director of the Center for Ecology and Productivity of Forests of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences

25 July 2025

For the original text, see https://t.me/RusEcology/3181 and discussion by academician A.R. Khokhlov at https://t.me/khokhlovAR/1034

Biotic Regulation Comments

Despite the many perspectives, both international and domestic, that distinguish the two letters, the core disagreement can be seen as being primarily scientific. It concerns the nature of forest stability and its relationship with the environment. In the first letter, forests are seen as inevitably destined to either rot or burn, and therefore their productivity must be sustained through human management. It is further argued that, since restoration is legally required to follow logging, the absence of logging would mean that no restoration will occur—implying the forest would remain in a degraded, burned, or decaying state.

Conversely, the second letter emphasizes that clearcutting will undermine the resilience of the forest ecosystem and its environment. In particular, it argues that clearcutting increases vulnerability to large fires—not only because more roads lead to a higher human risk of fire ignition, but also because young, even-aged stands that grow on logged areas do not reduce wind speeds, thereby facilitating the spread of fires. Moreover, these stands dry out more easily than natural forests. The letter also notes that mechanized forest restoration on steep slopes will increase soil erosion and contribute to pollution of Lake Baikal.

Ecosystem’s ability to regulate its moisture status declines with increasing human harvestFig. 5 from Xiao et al. 2023 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1211/2023/

The second letter, therefore, implicitly supports the core idea of the biotic regulation concept—that undisturbed ecosystems stabilize both themselves and their environment and broader climate, while their disturbance leads to environmental and climatic degradation. In fact, at least three of the academicians who signed the letter are well acquainted with the biotic regulation concept, having co-authored papers on the topic, publicly expressed surprise over the “conspiracy of silence” around the concept, or published our ideas in their journals and spread the narrative.

However, even the second letter does not mention the broader role that natural forest ecosystems play in climate stabilization. This is understandable, as such a discussion would require a higher level of conceptualization and argumentation that is not easily achievable in an official letter calling for prompt measures—in this case, to prevent the hasty adoption of the law. However, strategically, bringing attention to the climate-regulating functions of natural ecosystems is vital.

What this discussion reveals is that issues that can be perceived as purely academic, such as what natural ecosystems might do for climate, and how that function depends on their “naturalness” versus anthropogenic use, are, in fact, central to making strategic decisions that will affect people’s lives and our land for generations to come. Because an old tree cut down today won’t grow back tomorrow, and its function will, in practical terms, be lost to us forever.

Stop cutting and giving away land, or Baikal will rise in anger.Gennady Tugulov, 13th-generation shaman

One might argue that, in the case of Baikal forests, this concerns a relatively small area—and that whatever happens here cannot have a global impact. In other words, even if we preserve the forests around Lake Baikal, continued widespread logging elsewhere would render their climate-stabilizing impact insignificant.

However, Lake Baikal is a powerful symbol of Nature and Purity—a globally recognized gem in the necklace of the Biosphere. The way we choose to treat Lake Baikal may therefore carry far-reaching consequences for how people relate to nature more broadly. A good decision made here can set a precedent, echoing far beyond the region.

That is why it is so important to foster thoughtful, respectful, and science-based discussions about what forests actually do for our climate. For instance, as key drivers of atmospheric moisture transport, the natural forests of Siberia and the Russian Far East play a crucial role in sustaining moist air circulation over China (e.g., van der Ent et al. 2010).

Instead of continuing to log native forests in Russia while promoting artificial afforestation in China, why not pursue cooperation between all the regional powers to preserve natural forests and protect the integrity of moisture flows? Timber production could then be concentrated in smaller, intensively managed forest plantations—minimizing ecological and climatic damage.

Plantations are said to occupy just 3% of global tree stands yet generate 33% of global timber. Why not set aside ten times more natural forest for permanent protection for every new plantation we establish? This way, we could solve both deforestation once and for all, and timber supply for the time being—until we learn how to live by exploiting forests less than we do now. Provided, of course, that the timber industry doesn’t succeed in lobbying for infinite growth under the banner of making wood the foundation of a green “circular economy.” Turning the Earth into one vast timber plantation might seem efficient—for a moment—before it ends in irreversible collapse.

Intensely managed forests in Europe are in effect tree plantations, and they are struggling with all types of disturbances. Figure source: Scherpenhuijzen et al. 2025. Notably, in France, Spain and Portugal harvesting is most intense. When reading about “wildfires” in Spain or Portugal, remember that these affect heavily exploited, ecologically devastated vegetation deprived of the capacity to regulate moisture. On the contrary, native forests in Portugal, however small, could stop even intense fires. We don’t call an industrial chicken farm an “ecosystem,” so let’s not deceive ourselves by calling modern, heavily harvested tree stands “forests.”

If we choose now to stop cutting down multicentennial trees for toilet paper or “sustainable” packaging (see “Trees might be green—but paper isn’t” by Rachel Donald), future generations—if able to look back from their ecologically wiser world—may regard us with gratitude and applaud our civilizational committment.

PS: Consideration of the law by the Duma has apparently been postponed. According to the telegram channel “Ecology of Russia”, the law has disappeared from the Duma’s timetable.

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From: Svet Zabelin <svet...@gmail.com>
Date: пт, 25 июл. 2025 г. в 00:30
Subject: Fwd: Fight for Baikal
 

 
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