UN
Climate Change
Global
Climate Action
6
November
2020 | |
Our
theory of change in the Race to Zero
emissions | |
This
decade will be one of the most transformative
for climate action, as different actors across
key sectors and diverse backgrounds catalyze the
crucial transformations needed to accelerate
progress towards a zero-carbon
economy.
Global
greenhouse gas emissions are still too high to
meet the Paris Agreement’s more ambitious goal
of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. But the
speed of technological breakthroughs, price
declines and demand increases already evident in
sectors such as electric vehicles, LED bulbs and
renewable energy gives confidence that emerging
innovations can disrupt and upend traditional
industries and catalyze decarbonization within
just a few years.
We
know this, because it has happened before in
every major industrial disruption, and it will
happen again with decarbonization. At first,
there are high costs and a high level of
uncertainty but a small number of actors take
the lead, and the initial risks, in the first
steps of the transformation and commit to the
emerging technology. Different actors - across
sectors, geographies and economies - start to
support the transition, and the positive
feedback between them further raises ambition
and increases momentum along every stage of the
value chain, making it systemic. This is when
the market share of the new technology grows
seemingly glacially, from something like 2
percent to 4 percent of the market.
Many
will point to the size of the percentage, but
miss the doubling rate, which is what will make
the transformation grow exponentially. The
market share of the new technology doubles to 8
percent, to 16 percent, to 32 percent, and so on
as more actors overcome the technological
obstacles, gain confidence in the new
technology, and follow the path forged by the
first movers. The volumes go up, the costs go
down, and the transformation follows the ‘S’
curve through to full market adoption, faster
than any of the incumbents ever
predicted.
This
is what happened with the transition from horses
to cars, from analog to digital, with most of
the technology we use today - and it is
happening already in many key sectors of the
global economy today. In some cases, such as
wind and solar, the growth rate is already
exceeding what is needed to deliver a Paris
consistent scenario. Wind and
solar PV have grown
from 0.25 percent of electricity generation in
2000 to 8.5 percent of electricity generation in
2019, an approximately 20 percent annual
increase. To reach a Paris consistent scenario
of 51 percent solar and wind electricity
generation on an S-curve trajectory, the annual
growth rate will only need to average 6 percent
per year from now to 2050.
| |
Reminder: Race to Zero Dialogues and the
Climate Action
Pathways | |
Partners
from all over the world are coming together from
November 9 to 19 for the Race to
Zero Dialogues.
The Dialogues will launch the next version of
the Climate
Action Pathways
of the Marrakech Partnership, which defines the
plans for unlocking the systems transformations
needed to cut emissions to zero across 10 key
sectors and build a resilient, zero-carbon
future.
The
High-Level Champions will introduce and set out
the objectives for the Dialogues on Monday, 9
November at 09:00 GMT with the intervention of
the United Nations
Secretary-General,
Mr. Antonio Guterres, COP 25 President Minister
Ms. Carolina Schmidt, COP 26 President Minister
Mr. Alok Sharma, Minister of the Environment of
Italy Mr. Sergio Costa and UNFCCC Executive
Secretary Ms. Patricia Espinosa.
| |
Built
to showcase the systems transformations needed
and already underway for a zero-carbon future,
the new Race to
Zero website
hosts stories and interviews from actors and
partners across the global economy racing
towards zero emissions and greater resilience to
the impacts of climate change. It tells stories
of progress from businesses, governments,
cities, civil society, faith groups and
more.
| |
● New
net zero commitments by China,
Japan and South Korea
cover two-thirds of the world’s coal use and
nearly half of its CO2 emissions, Carbon Brief
says.
● Low
or zero carbon emissions policies for the
electricity sector are achievable — and they
will generate
climate and health benefits
by 2040 to 2050 that far exceed moderate policy
costs, Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public
Health has found.
● Nature-based
solutions can create immediate no-harm jobs
and support a transition to a greener and more
job-rich economy, according to WWF and the
International Labour Organization.
● An
accelerated green and just recovery will create
more jobs, more quickly and deliver greater
economic and health benefits
than a return to business as usual can hope to
achieve, the C40 Global Mayors COVID-19 Recovery
Task Force says.
● The
2020 UN
Climate Action Awards
shines a light on examples of what people are
doing around the world, from the Caribbean’s
only carbon-neutral hotel to the first platform
fully dedicated to green bonds.
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