Tim: I was referring to 0.17 which, according to some posts on the elm-dev mailing list, will produce code that minifies better (less code to parse), will include dead-code removal (less code to parse) and a new native format which I believe will have less need of bootstraping (less code to run after parse). Smaller code should also make it faster to transfer, meaning cold startup should improve.
Of course, those things might not provide a noticable performance improvement though. My tests weren't very scientific, so lambda could simply have had a bad day.
Conrad: The lack of higher-kinded types, or any interface-like construct, is a criticism of Elm completely unrelated to aws lambda, and is very specific to Elm, not all compile-to-js languages.