NY state governor race 2018

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Warren D Smith

Nov 3, 2018, 5:15:40 PM11/3/18
to electionscience
5 way race. In my opinion Stephanie Miner (indep) is likely the best choice,
and Marcus Molinaro (repub) has his attractions too.
But probably Andrew Cuomo (dem) will be re-elected easily, probably
not even needing
the Miner/Molinaro et al anti-Cuomo vote-split.
Warren D. Smith
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Warren D Smith

Nov 4, 2018, 5:41:54 PM11/4/18
to electionscience
I just saw a sample ballot printed in my local newspaper.
Stephanie Miner (independent candidate for NY governor)
was falsely listed as "libertarian."
The actual libertarian, Larry Sharpe, was entirely omitted.

I'm guessing this is NY state's or my county's fault not the newspaper's (?).
This is a total outrage.


WHOOPS correction.
They have a column for "governor." Going down the column, no Sharpe.
BUT, Sharpe is present in a SECOND column way at the bottom. You figured
that column was just all blank since its top 8 entries all blank... but
no, way down at the bottom is Sharpe.

Meanwhile, in the 9 slots of the first governor
column, which was the only column I even noticed,
they list Cuomo 4 different times.
So you can vote Cuomo 4 different ways in that column, but to
vote Sharpe, only 1 way, and only if you look in a different column
you did not even think existed. In addition, its made to look like
Miner is the libertarian, even though she is not. You could figure that
out too if you were really clever & tried hard.

There are some other multicolumns on that ballot, but in all the others, the
additional column is not blank at its top, and is filled in top-first,
so you know that column exists.

So this sure looks like an additional in your face "fuck you" move
from Cuomo (the sitting NY governor) to gratuitously screw his opponents
Miner & Sharpe extra for having the gall to run.


And by the way, the usual guess is the results of the election
will be something like
A.Cuomo 50%
M.Molinaro 40%
all others splitting 10%
but I think it is a plausible conjecture that it were a 2-way race
Cuomo vs Miner,
then Miner would win. If so this is a huge distortion of democracy.

I have almost zero evidence for this conjecture.
But my reasoning is,
1. almost all Republicans would take Miner, basically out of
reflex since Cuomo is Democratic.
2. many(?) Dem voters are disenchanted with Cuomo (who failed
to deliver all his campaign promises that I cared about) and would
go with Miner (who also was a Dem, as mayor of Syracuse).
3. independent voters would have an open mind and take
Miner since she just seems superior on the face of it.

Putting it all together it seems plausible Miner would win it
under those circumstances. But as is, she's going to be
way way behind.
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