electiion day exit polls: any comparison to official tallies?

[BobK]

On election day, for the first time since 2004, CNN showed exit polls from individual states well BEFORE the final “official” results for those states were in. I plugged into this chat group because I expected some of you would have done what Jonathon Simon (I think it was him) did in 2004, i.e., record the raw exit poll results and later compare them with the reported vote tallies.

Did anyone do this?

Bob Klauber, PhD

Co-founder and member

Iowans for Voting Integrity

[Richard Charnin]

Jon Simon downloaded the "Composite" state exit polls which had already been contaminated by incoming vote counts (Kerry led by just 1.2% at this point). These were the final adjusted polls before the pollsters had to make the ultimate final adjustment: to match the recorded vote..

Here is the 2004 timeline, from the unadjusted exit polls to the composite to the finals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=6

We did not get the unadjusted state and national exit polls until 2010. In fact, I have been working on this issue since 2004. I became aware of the unadjusted exit polls on the Roper archive website last year.  I  manually transferred the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll data  to an online spreadsheet database. Here are the actual unadjusted exit polls.In 2004, Kerry led the state exit poll aggregate by 51-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit poll by 51.7-47.0% .

The exit pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush:

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/

This post is an overview of the 1988-2008 exit polls. The Democrats led  the unadjusted polls by 52-42%. They led the recorded vote by 48-46%

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

On Friday, November 16, 2012 12:25:12 PM UTC-5, BobK wrote:

On election day, for the first time since 2004, CNN showed exit polls from individual states well BEFORE the final “official” results for those states were in. I plugged into this chat group because I expected some of you would have done what Jonathon Simon (I think it was him) did in 2004, i.e., record the raw exit poll results and later compare them with the reported vote tallies.

Did anyone do this?

Bob Klauber, PhDCo-founder and member

Iowans for Voting Integrity

[Richard Charnin]

 CNN shows the final exit polls which have been adjusted to match the recorded vote. Do not believe them. As always, they have been rigged to match a rigged vote count.

THEY NEVER SHOW THE UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president#exit-polls

On Friday, November 16, 2012 12:25:12 PM UTC-5, BobK wrote:

[David Moore]

Yes, I found it surprising that the networks were showing exit poll results (showing the percentages for candidates, who was ahead and who was behind) openly – cautioning that the figures weren’t final, only estimates. In 2004 and before, any release of exit poll results showing the possible winner was absolutely verboten. Some results (especially in 2004) were leaked to the outside world, but this year, CNN just openly discussed the results of the raw exit poll results. In 2008, the exit poll operation really clamped down on leaks about the early results. I wonder if now they’ve decided  that they can’t control the leaks, so it’s better to be open about the numbers – while warning the viewers that the results are only “estimates”?

 

David Moore

www.iMediaEthics.org

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[Richard Charnin]

You will never get the unadjusted exit polls on  CNN or anywhere else. You will have to wait months or years until they are posted on the Roper archive - with 19 states missing this time.

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.UKaLnOQ72Aj

The CNN exit polls are the final adjusted BOGUS numbers. They were forced to match a BOGUS recorded vote. Obama had 61% in the unadjusted 2008 National Exit poll and 58% in the state exit poll aggregate ( a23 million vote margin). Compare them to to his 52.9% recorded share. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

The Democrats always do much better than the recorded vote indicates.  Obama did much better this time also. He probably had 54-55%. We could confirm that if the unadjusted exit polls were released for all 50 states. We will eventually see them for the 31 states that were polled on Roper (probably a year from now).  You have to ask yourself: why the wait. Why don't we have them now?  And there is just one answer. They would show that election fraud  reduced Obama's True Vote margin by nearly 10 million votes. In 2008, his unadjusted Exit Poll/True Vote Margin was reduced by 13 million votes.

On Friday, November 16, 2012 12:25:12 PM UTC-5, BobK wrote:

[Cliff Arnebeck]

Last Sunday morning I spoke with Jonathan Simon whom I had called to ask this very question.  Jon told me there was no "red shift" this year.

Cliff Arnebeck

ElectionProtectionAction.org

-----Original Message-----
From: David Moore <dmoo...@comcast.net>
To: 'BobK' <bobkl...@gmail.com>; ElectionIntegrity <Election...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Fri, Nov 16, 2012 1:53 pm
Subject: RE: [ei] election day exit polls: any comparison to official tallies?

Yes, I found it surprising that the networks were showing exit poll results (showing the percentages for candidates, who was ahead and who was behind) openly – cautioning that the figures weren’t final, only estimates. In 2004 and before, any release of exit poll results showing the possible winner was absolutely verboten. Some results (especially in 2004) were leaked to the outside world, but this year, CNN just openly discussed the results of the raw exit poll results. In 2008, the exit poll operation really clamped down on leaks about the early results. I wonder if now they’ve decided  that they can’t control the leaks, so it’s better to be open about the numbers – while warning the viewers that the results are only “estimates”?

 

David Moore

www.iMediaEthics.org

 

 

 

 

 

From: Election...@googlegroups.com [mailto:Election...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of BobK
Sent: Friday, November 16, 2012 12:25 PM
To: Election...@googlegroups.com
Subject: [ei] electiion day exit polls: any comparison to official tallies?

 

On election day, for the first time since 2004, CNN showed exit polls from individual states well BEFORE the final “official” results for those states were in. I plugged into this chat group because I expected some of you would have done what Jonathon Simon (I think it was him) did in 2004, i.e., record the raw exit poll results and later compare them with the reported vote tallies.

Did anyone do this?

Bob Klauber, PhD

Co-founder and member

Iowans for Voting Integrity

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To post, send email to Election...@googlegroups.com. Please review the "Posting Guidelines" page.
 
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[Victoria Collier]

Is anyone planning on writing an article about this?

Victoria Collier
Editor: www.VoteScam.org

[Verified...@aol.com]

I'm a bit confused by Bob's observation. Networks have posted state exit polls shortly after poll closing, and generally when just  a few percent (or even 0%) of the official tallies were in, in every biennial general election since 2004 (the only pattern change I detected this year was the very late posting of the National sample EP, such that we may not have screen-captured the first posting, and probably have adjusted or composite numbers for the National sample).

 

It is disputable what those first-posted exit polls reflect.  We know for a fact that they do not represent raw data; they have been stratified.  The secret is in the sauce.  It is probable that the stratification rests heavily upon the demographics drawn from prior elections' adjusted exit polls, which has meant in practice a right skew of a few percent.  What is less clear is whether the first postings are also "contaminated" with actual vote tallies from key precincts in the current election, what is known as a "composite." My own belief is that EdisonMitofsky can do that within minutes, if not seconds, of poll closing, and perhaps even before poll closing (by taking partial results from quick-count precincts). 

 

In any case, this year's screen captured state exit polls (remembering that there were no polls for 19 states) showed more blue than red shift.  How much of this was due to honest vote counting and how much due to exit poll adjusting (bear in mind that if the current election is rigged precisely as much as the previous election there would be no red shift, in theory at least, because the shift would already have been built into the exit polls via the adjusted exit poll demographics from the previous election; this is a bit of an over-simplification, but this whole field is as arcane as Kremlinology), we really don't know.

 

--Jonathan

[Cliff Arnebeck]

Victoria,

I talked with Jon just before going to church last Sunday.  Based upon Jon's statement, during the prayers of the people at church, I added: 1) a prayer that Karl Rove and Bob Urosevich would seek and receive forgiveness for their attempted interference with the 2012 American elections  2) thanks to the people in the service of our law enforcement and intelligence agencies, especially former NSA cyber-security expert Micheal Duniho who had provided an affidavit exposing the threat posed by ES&S software that been illegally placed upon the vote tabulators in 25 Ohio populous counties, and Judge Mark Serrott who understood that threat and appreciated the remedy the NSA expert had proposed to counter it and 3) remembrance of Rev. Bill Moss of Columbus, Ohio, The Honorable Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Cleveland, Ohio, Ray Lemme of Florida and Micheal Connell of Akron, Ohio each of whom I believe lost their lives in the course of their work for the cause of electoral integrity.  Obviously, I gave substantial weight to Jonathan Simon's opinion about the presence or absence of a "red shift" in a Presidential election.

Since then, Richard Charnin has cautioned us that the exit poll numbers being reported during the course of election day were already reflecting inappropriate adjustments. Further he believes that late-counted votes, showing a substantially higher margin of victory for the President  suggest that the reported vote count immediately following the election and the reported exit poll numbers during the course of election day were not correct.  My understanding is that the experts are now trying to get a better handle on whether, and to what extent, Rove may have been successful in achieving substantial fraudulent vote count shifting in favor of the Republican candidate, in spite of the persistent and concerted effort of law enforcement, intelligence agencies and private election integrity groups to block it.

Cliff

[BobK]

Hmmm.... My thoughts, numbered.

1) The pre election polls, from many different polling companies, appeared awfully close to the final official tallies, no? Seems to me indicative of a reasonably legitimate vote count. Yes?

2) I had thought that exit poll results since 2004 had been shown on network TV for things like "% of women voting for candidate A", "% who put the economy first in selecting their candidate", etc. but not actual percentages of the vote for each candidate. I specifically remember Wolf Blitzer saying 2 (or 4?) years ago, more or less, "but we have the exit poll results to help us make our calls". Implicit in his statement was "but we aren't showing them to you".  Maybe I'm wrong. Jonathan certainly keeps closer tabs on this stuff than I do.

3) I have been away from this stuff for a few years (avoiding as many things as possible while working on my book) and was unaware that even election day exit polls were massaged to correlate with prior year differentials with official tallies.  Hmmm.... again.

4) Neither did I know, as Richard Charnin points out, that eventually the unadjusted poll data sets are made public.  But how does anyone know they are really unadjusted?

Thanks to all of you for all you do.
Bob Klauber