Climate Change: People Pushing to Dim the Sun are Stuck in the Wrong Story
Hart Hagan
Link to article: Climate Change: People Pushing to Dim the Sun are Stuck in the Wrong Story
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) seems unwise and unnecessary if you understand how plants, trees, water and ecosystems can intelligently harness and distribute the sun’s energy
Them: “Let’s dim the sun!”
Me: “I have a better idea. How about we don’t?”
Dimming the sun is dangerous and unnecessary. And it’s frivolous in light of all the unexplored options and untapped resources.
“Let’s dim the sun, because carbon emissions are not declining fast enough.” That’s the message of an article that I will critique here: The Positive Case For Global Cooling That Few Seem Willing to Make
Some are so concerned about carbon dioxide that they have decided to dim the sun. Meanwhile, we are not talking about the rapid decline of wildlife, or the need to restore wildlife habitat, including forests, which, as it turns out, are great cooling mechanisms and regulators of temperature and precipitation.
In this article …
Who is Paul Gambill?
Why does Mr. Gambill insist that now is the time to dim the sun?
What strategies is Mr. Gambill not talking about, but should?
Why are we not talking about the cooling power of plants, trees, water cycles and ecosystems?
Have we not lost sight of our main goal, which is to protect and nurture nature?
Paul Gambill promotes solar radiation management (SRM). You can find his work at the website SRM360 and his Substack column at Paul Gambill | Substack.
This is a critique of the article The Positive Case For Global Cooling That Few Seem Willing to Make, by Paul Gambill.
By his own account, he has spent the last decade trying to build a physical and financial infrastructure for carbon removal.
Mr. Gambill asserts that limiting carbon emissions is not enough, so he got interested in carbon removal, i.e., carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Then he concluded that limiting carbon emissions, together with carbon removal are still not enough, so he advocates for solar radiation management (SRM).
The carbon math
Gambill writes:
“I spent a decade building carbon removal infrastructure, believing we could scale our way out of the climate crisis. The math proved me wrong.”
“The math” is an interesting phrase. He’s talking about carbon numbers, i.e., parts per million of carbon dioxide, which is so important that we need to fix this problem first.
I will argue here that carbon dioxide is only one factor in climate change, though it has become the obsessive focus of the climate movement.
Wildlife math
According to the 2024 Living Planet Report of the World Wildlife Fund, we have lost 73% of monitored vertebrate populations since 1970. That would seem to be an important number. But that’s not “the math” Mr. Gambill is talking about.
Math related to insects
According to this article, The collapse of insects, insect abundance is declining 1% to 2% per year. At this rate, insects are declining by half every fifty years. But this is not “the math” that Mr. Gambill is concerned with.
The dominant obsession
Mr. Gambill is in good company. The climate and environmental movement is obsessed with carbon dioxide. From Dr. James Hansen, to Naomi Klein, to Bill McKibben, to Bill Nye the Science Guy, to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the New York Times to a major political party that tries to identify with the climate movement, it’s all about carbon dioxide. And it’s all about pretending to lower atmospheric carbon and pretending to lower global average temperatures.
Where is the plan?
I say “pretending” because nobody has a plan.
Correction: Paul Hawken has a plan, and I highly recommend his work, but not enough people are talking about it. It should be part of the mainstream dialogue, but it’s not.
Hawken’s book Regeneration: Ending the Climate Crisis in One Generation, is a worthy and thoughtful plan. And Hawken’s previous book Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming is a book that is worthy of its subtitle. It is a “comprehensive” plan.
Other than that, it’s hard to find a coherent--let alone comprehensive--plan for reversing global warming.
Carbon dioxide is a “top-down” understanding of climate
The mainstream climate conversation is all about carbon dioxide. It is a “top-down” understanding of climate. All climate change comes from greenhouse gases. None of it comes from the land, or the vegetation on the land or the water cycles that emerge due to functioning forests and grasslands.
For more on how vegetation affects our climate, see this article: The Untold Story of How Plants & Trees Cool Their Surroundings, by Hart Hagan and Poulomi Chakravarty.
Carbon removal
Mr. Gambill spent a decade focusing on carbon removal, as distinct from lowering carbon emissions. He founded a company called Nori, which sought to establish voluntary markets for carbon removal.
Gambill writes:
“In a more perfect world, we would today be well on our way to removing 285 million tonnes of CO2 per year by 2030, but what we’ve achieved so far is barely a drop in the bucket.”
Carbon dioxide and wildlife
Neither Mr. Gambill nor Naomi Klein nor Bill McKibben nor the IPCC can explain how capturing 285 million tonnes of CO2 annually will halt the precipitous decline of vertebrates or insects. But CO2 is the exclusive obsession of today’s environmental movement.
Hawken’s book Regeneration features the living systems of the world and how humans interact with them, including oceans and forests, land and farms, food and energy.
This is a comprehensive plan.
“Exactly Three Tools”
By contrast, Gambill asserts that we have “exactly three tools” in our toolbox.
He writes:
“We have exactly three tools to prevent catastrophic warming: emissions reduction, carbon removal, and cooling interventions.”
“Exactly three” means no more than three. There are no others. I’m not taking his words out of context. I am reading them in context. He means no more than three tools are available to us.
“Cooling Interventions”
Mr. Gambill imposes interesting constraints on the concept of “cooling interventions.”
In Gambill’s world, “cooling interventions” do not include shade trees or forests or any of the climate-related services that ecosystems provide.
Is a shade tree not a “cooling intervention”?
I frequently recommend a report called Not Just Carbon from the World Resources Institute. Frances Seymour is the lead author. And I frequently teach from this presentation, based on the report: Forests Are Not Just Carbon. Please see below for an upcoming webinar by this title.
Plants and trees are cooling mechanisms, apart from carbon removal
Plants, trees and forests cast shade, with a cooling effect. Plants and trees transpire water, causing it to evaporate, which has a cooling effect. These are only the most obvious and common sense ways in which plants, trees, forests and ecosystems have a cooling effect.
Plants, trees, forests and ecosystems also cause water to flow and change phases (i.e., evaporation and condensation), thus distributing heat and--upon condensation--transferring some of that heat back out into space, thus diminishing the greenhouse effect.
In light of the myriad cooling effects and climate-related services of natural systems, one might reasonably ask:
In what universe are we limited to “exactly three tools”?
We are limited to “exactly three tools” in a universe in which plants and trees do not cast shade. But that’s not the real world.
We are limited to “exactly three tools” in a universe in which plants and trees do not transpire water, creating a cooling effect. But that’s not the real world.
In the real world, plants and trees do cast shade and transpire water, creating a cooling effect.
We are limited to “exactly three tools” in a universe in which trees and forests do not create cloud cover.
We are limited to “exactly three tools” in a universe in which regenerative farming is just a pipe dream that could never replace industrial agriculture. But in the real world regenerative farming can provide a greater abundance of nutritious food per acre, while storing carbon in the soil, providing habitat for wildlife and bringing consistent, gentle rainfall.
We are limited to “exactly three tools” in a universe in which there is no way to replace any of the 50% of global biomass we have killed off in the last 5,000 years, according to Canadian scientist Vaclav Smil.
We are limited to “exactly three tools” in a universe in which the people have no power to place limits on the extravagant energy use of oligarchs, such as private jets and endless war. In the real world, we have that power, but are currently not exercising it. We have allowed them to convince us that there is no alternative. After all--we are taught--this is a meritocracy. They have earned their extravagant lifestyles, and there is no real, practical way to reign them in.
How many people are involved in “cooling interventions”?
Gambill proceeds to lament the small number of people who are involved in “cooling interventions.”
He writes:
“Over the past months, I've been exploring the global cooling landscape. What I found was both encouraging and concerning. My best estimate is that only 1,000 to 3,000 people globally work on cooling interventions.”
This is only true because Gambill defines “cooling interventions” narrowly to exclude any of the very real cooling interventions that occur when people establish regenerative farms, or protect our forests from logging. As it turns out, nature does most of the work, because the sun, rain and soil cause the plants to grow. But people have a role to play, by setting the stage for nature to succeed and giving nature room to grow.
People who do such work are involved in “cooling interventions.”
Condensation
And then there’s condensation. Mature forests tend to drive condensation, because they emit condensation nuclei in addition to water vapor, increasing the likelihood, prevalence and consistency of condensation. And then, when condensation occurs, a certain amount of electromagnetic radiation gets emitted and sent back out into space.
This is an effect of high functioning, mature forests that contribute both water vapor and condensation nuclei, resulting in condensation and therefore clouds, many of which reflect light back out into space, none of which qualifies as cooling interventions in Gambill’s lexicon.
Regenerative farming ⇒ cooling interventions
People who work in regenerative farming are working on cooling interventions.
Conventional farming ⇒ warming interventions
Conventional farming is a warming intervention because tillage, chemical fertilizer and pesticides tend to degrade the earth’s natural cooling abilities associated with carbon cycles and water cycles.
Therefore, people who lobby to diminish the influence of agribusiness on our farming system are working on cooling interventions.
Logging ⇒ warming intervention
If you promote logging, that is a warming intervention, because logging compromises the natural ability of a forest to cool its surroundings.
Forest protection ⇒ warming intervention
If you work to protect our forests from the logging industry, then that is a cooling intervention, because you are helping the forest naturally cool its surroundings.
Conclusions
My purpose here is to convey what I see as a slew of blind spots in Mr. Gambill’s reasoning.
He is in “good company,” so to speak. The entire climate movement, with few exceptions, is entirely enamored with “the math,” i.e., the math associated with carbon dioxide, and is largely oblivious to the cooling power of nature.
Plus, we have forgotten--have we not?--that our goal is to protect and nurture nature. Cooling the climate is a means to that end. It appears we have lost sight of the larger goal.
FREE WEBINARS:
Below are a few of my upcoming webinars.
For a complete list, please see:
*****
How Plants Cool & Regulate Our Climate
With Dr. Poulomi Chakravarty
Wednesday, September 3 at 7:00 PM (Eastern Time, US)
Our plants, trees and forests have tremendous power to cool their surroundings, bring rain, regulate temperatures and prevent weather extremes. But how does it all work? That is the focus of Dr. Poulomi Chakravarty’s work as an Environmental Scientist and Climate Educator, your presenter in this Free Webinar.
RSVP: How Plants Cool & Regulate Our Climate, Wednesday, Sept 3 at 7:00 PM
*****
Forests Are Not Just Carbon. Friday, September 5 at 3:00 (Eastern Time)
Trees and Forests are so much more than storehouses of carbon. We will study an astonishing report from the World Resources Institute describing the dozens of ways trees and forests bring us a livable climate. For example: “Not only do growing trees pull significant amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere, but by encouraging cloud formation … they ensure that more energy from sunlight is reflected back into space.”
This is just one of the ways that forests cool their environment, and this is why some of us assert that plants, trees and forests offer the quickest, cleanest, safest way to cool our climate.
RSVP: Forest are Not Just Carbon. Friday, September 5 at 3:00 (Eastern Time)
*****
Urban Pollinator Garden Update. Monday, September 8 at 7:00 PM (Eastern Time)
Come see the latest pictures from my 2/8 of an acre in urban Louisville. You will see lush green plants, colorful blooms, insect visitors, rich soil and invisible water cycles. This is highly relevant to climate change, biodiversity and social justice.
RSVP: Urban Pollinator Garden Update. Monday, September 8 @ 7:00 PM - Google Forms
*****
The Status of Vertebrate Populations. Friday, September 12 @ 3:00 PM (Eastern Time)
We will look at the 2024 Living Planet Report, which revealed a precipitous decline in 35,000 vertebrate populations worldwide. This is a major study that deserves our attention. Why are vertebrate populations declining? And what can we do about it? Is this story not at least as big as climate change?
RSVP: The Status of Vertebrate Populations. Friday, September 12 @ 3:00 P (Eastern Time) - Google Forms
*****
The Worldwide Loss of Soil Moisture. Monday, September 15 @ 7:00 PM (Eastern Time)
2,623 gigatonnes of water is an unimaginable amount of water. A gigatonne is one billion tonnes, or a cubic kilometer of water. The soils of the earth are running dry, the soil organisms are dying of thirst. The soils are sloughing off rainfall as they become compacted. And yet, “nobody” is talking about this. Let’s change the conversation!
RSVP: The Worldwide Loss of Soil Moisture: Monday, September 15 @ 7:00 PM (Eastern Time) - Google Forms
*****
For a complete list, please see: