China changed water cycles by planting billions of trees

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Wout Hoff

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Dec 13, 2025, 2:14:00 AM (3 days ago) Dec 13
to EcoRestoration Alliance
Good morning all

I came across this article:

May I ask for peoples views on this?

My view was always "more trees is better"

Can we predict how rainfall patterns will be affected if we restore degraded land by planting trees?

Kind regards,

Wout Hoff

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Sheil, Douglas

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Dec 14, 2025, 6:23:31 AM (yesterday) Dec 14
to Wout Hoff, EcoRestoration Alliance

"more trees is better" –often, but depends where you are and what trees. There are multiple effects involved that operate at different scale—for example, infiltration and atmospheric transport.

 

In dry areas more trees can make it drier and in wet areas it can make it wetter. See for one summary here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.16644

The point is that tree cover can deplete water too though this is often overemphasised (due to past studies focusing on plantations in dry regions that shouldn’t support dense tree cover), see https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2197562025000855

 

On dry degraded soils intermediate tree cover is often much better than none even when dense cover is also not desirable: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep21930

 

Timing matters too. Introduced species can be maladaptive. Native species with locally adapted phenology (when they leaf and transpire) is key.

 

Ideally don’t plant when you can simply promote local regeneration/regrowth. Plan for a self-sustaining system

 

In general, I would say “follow nature” in terms of vegetation structures/covers/densities and compositions.

 

For some general overviews see: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017300134 and my own, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40663-018-0138-y?fbclid=IwAR07VSVqp34OEJqHrwqMVncrVTfXWNJgrMXZzJxtDSKSQVcObEorAgsDLTw

 

Can we predict how rainfall patterns will be affected if we restore degraded land by planting trees?” … yes, we can approximate this for small scale changes. For large scale changes (where the moisture tracking is not enough because circulation will also change) it depends on the confidence you put in the models … certainly you can get “a prediction” but different models give different predictions …

 

 

Douglas

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