I think they are obscuring the issues behind an overly complicated analysis.
Ecological degradation is proportional to dollars spent, if you consider that 1) Dollars spent correlate almost perfectly with 2) Energy consumption and 3) Materials extracted, this according to people like Nate Hagens, Tom Murphy and Simon Michaux.
If the correlation holds, then when you double the GDP, you double energy consumption and the extraction of materials from the farms, forests, mines and oceans of the world.
This is why it is a fool's errand to focus on carbon emissions or an energy transition. Carbon emissions will go up with energy consumption. Solar and wind require monumental amounts of fossil fuels.
If "the economy" grows at 2.5% per year, then it doubles every generation, along with energy expended and materials extracted.
Is there a scenario whereby you can double the GDP, energy and materials throughput every generation while reducing carbon emissions?
I think not. And yet this is the central message of the climate movement.
Even if hypothetically solar and wind only require half the fossil fuels per unit of energy, if the economy doubles, then you're right back to where you were.
Solar and wind require a great deal more
land per unit of energy and a great deal more
materials (e.g., metals like copper, nickel, aluminum, cobalt) per unit of energy. Besides which, an industrial scale wind or solar "farm" requires a steady "baseload" power supply in the form of coal, natural gas, nuclear or hydro power. Jeff Gibbs addresses this issue skillfully in
Michael Moore Presents: Planet of the Humans | A Film by Jeff Gibbs | Full DocumentaryThe futility of protecting the environment amid endless economic growth (as the economy is currently organized) is the single most underreported story in environmentalism, in my opinion.
The solution is to tell this story consistently and persistently, and challenge the prevailing dogma that says it's possible to lower carbon emissions while growing the economy, as long as "energy is the economy" (Vaclav Smil), and as long as so much of our economy depends on the extraction of new materials from the earth in processes that are polluting and unsustainable.
What do you think?
We forget that the purpose of an economy is to meet the needs of people. It is supposed to serve us. Instead, we have become subservient to an "economy," which is really just a bunch of rules and preconceived notions that have been imposed upon us, quite apart from the needs of people or the planet.
Ecologist and filmmaker John D. Liu frequently points to the absurdity of an accounting system that values nature at zero. A forest has no value until you extract timber or clear the land for mining or crops or livestock. Nothing wrong with crops and livestock, but these are currently organized as extractive industries and as plantations producing products for export, anything but providing food for the community or the region or even the nation.
What's missing here is actual democracy. I submit to you that we've never seen actual democracy, because we the people have never been invited to design the economy, even at the local level.
If you would like to continue the conversation, please see the upcoming webinars on my website:
Hart Hagan