We Are in the Anthropocene—Now What? - Rockström - 2026 - Earth's Future - Wiley Online Library

[Philip Bogdonoff]

Latest paper by Johan Rockström and colleagues.

Abstract

While the term “Anthropocene” is well established across scientific disciplines and social spheres, interpretations are diverse. Taking account of the 2024 rejection by a geological commission to accept the Anthropocene as a geological epoch and the related scientific debate, here we offer a future-oriented perspective from the viewpoint of Earth system science. We describe different pathways in the Anthropocene up to the year 3,000, systematically characterizing them according to impacts and causes. We discuss the enormous global consequences of anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system and quantify the corresponding long-term commitment to change. Regarding the causes, we conservatively explore best-case and middle-of-the road emission scenarios, in combination with climate sensitivities drawn from within the IPCC likely range. We also discuss implications for Earth system resilience that could result in what we call worst case scenarios for Anthropocene outcomes. We conclude that, beyond the slow pace of natural climate recovery spanning many millennia, even minimal, unavoidable residual emissions like from the food sector risk perpetuating global warming in the absence of other human forcing. One implication is that if climate or carbon cycle feedbacks shift toward reinforcing warming, they risk not only exacerbating climate impacts but to also surpassing human forcing in relevance. At that point, human influence on the Anthropocene would no longer play the dominant role.

Plain Language Summary

Most people have a general, intuitive understanding of the term “Anthropocene.” And while it has not formally been declared as a new geological epoch, it is scientifically clear that these new times have only begun to fully unfold. The Anthropocene stresses both the enormity of the human imprint on Earth, as well as its long-term nature. That latter aspect, however, is highly underappreciated among the public. We describe several qualitatively different Anthropocene pathways for the next millennium, some of them depending on our cumulative actions as humanity, some on how the Earth system responds to these human pressures. We highlight how much we are already stuck in a figurative “Anthropocene quicksand”, where only an active pull can free us from consequences like global heating—while even a very modest continuation of greenhouse gas emissions will keep us at high warming levels. Should Earth system resilience, the natural buffering capacity, significantly decline, the impacts of our actions would become even stronger. In a worst-case scenario, shifts in Earth system feedbacks could even surpass human forcing in relevance. But we are not there yet and can still pull ourselves out of the quicksand.

We Are in the Anthropocene—Now What? - Rockström - 2026 - Earth's Future - Wiley Online Library

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF007730

[Philip Bogdonoff]

Here is a summary of what I think the paper either explicitly or implicity "recommends":

1. Shift from "reducing harm" to "restoring Earth-system regulation"
2. Protect remaining intact ecosystems immediately
3. Launch restoration at planetary scale
4. Restore the water cycle as aggressively as the carbon cycle
5. Create "wanted tipping points"
6. Align finance with Earth-system resilience
7. Manage to planetary boundaries
8. Build resilience, not merely sustainability

If I were to summarize the paper in one sentence for wat I think the paper means for Bio4Climate and ERA:

Humanity's highest climate priority is no longer merely reducing emissions; it is restoring the living Earth systems that regulate climate, water, and resilience before those systems cross irreversible tipping points.

-- Philip

On Mon, Jun 8, 2026 at 9:16 AM Jerald K <jeral...@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks, Philip. What do the author think needs to be done to get to "manageable"?

Jed

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[Philip Bogdonoff]

I should emphasize that many of the points in that list of 8 are not explicitly in the paper, but in my mind the paper either implies them or provides important grounding to support them.

-- Philip

[Philip Bogdonoff]

The EXPLICIT recommendations the paper makes are:

1. Pull toward "sustainable stewardship"

2. Rapidly reduce human pressures across all Earth systems

3. Return to the Planetary Boundaries safe operating space

4. Reach net-zero emissions by mid-century

5. Pursue carbon dioxide removal / active drawdown

6. Protect the biosphere

7. Protect natural carbon stocks and buffering systems

8. Regenerate Earth-system resilience