Meta Game Theory and Predictive History?

[Dante Monson]

Your reference to "Predictive History" and "How Evil Triumphs" points to a much more specialized, and less conventional, use of the term.

Based on the search results, "Predictive History" is a YouTube channel and a body of work by a Professor Jiang, who uses game theory to analyze historical and geopolitical events. It seems that he has a series of lectures called "Secret History" which includes one titled "How Evil Triumphs."

The "theory of transgression" in this context appears to be a specific analytical framework developed by Professor Jiang, distinct from the mainstream academic usage in game theory. While traditional game theory deals with rational actors making decisions based on self-interest and a defined set of rules, the "Predictive History" approach seems to use a more expansive, almost philosophical, application of game theory to explain why certain historical outcomes, which might seem irrational or "evil," come to pass.

The search results suggest the following key elements of this unique theory:

 * Going beyond the limit and crossing boundaries: The concept of "transgression" is defined as going beyond a set limit or boundary. This isn't just about breaking a rule, but about a fundamental violation of an unseen or unwritten boundary.

 * Challenging dominant ideologies: Transgressive acts, in this view, challenge the established order and force dominant groups to defend their position.

 * The paradoxical nature of transgression: The search results mention that while a transgressive act destabilizes the established order, it can also ironically serve to reinforce it. This suggests a complex, dynamic interplay between the transgressive act and the system it's violating.

 * A different kind of game theory: The search results highlight that Professor Jiang's approach is not the standard "rational choice" model of game theory. Instead, it seems to be used to model and predict the behavior of historical actors, including those who would be considered "raging dirtbags" in the foreboding worldview of traditional rational choice theory. This suggests that the theory of transgression is a way to account for behaviors that don't fit into a neat, purely rational-actor model.

In essence, while conventional game theory models a game with a known set of rules and payoffs, the "theory of transgression" as used by "Predictive History" seems to be a framework for understanding what happens when the very rules and boundaries of the game are violated, challenged, and ultimately redefined. It's a game theory of the "meta-game," where the objective isn't just to win within the rules, but to rewrite them entirely.

To summarize, the theory of transgression, as you're asking about it, is a specialized concept developed within the specific framework of "Predictive History." It's an application of game theory to historical analysis that focuses on the act of violating fundamental boundaries and societal norms, and how this process contributes to historical outcomes, including the rise of "evil." It's not a standard topic in academic game theory, but rather a unique analytical tool from a specific, popular-education source.

"Predictive History" and the "theory of transgression":

Based on the synthesis of our initial understanding and the newly acquired information, here is a more detailed breakdown:

A New Game Theory: The Universal Law

The "theory of transgression" as presented by Professor Jiang on the "Predictive History" YouTube channel is not a game theory in the traditional sense of a static model with fixed rules. Instead, it seems to be a more dynamic, almost "meta-game" framework. It's built on a "Universal Law of Game Theory," which is distinct from classical game theory models like the Prisoner's Dilemma.

This "universal law" seems to propose that:

 * Boundaries are not static. The game board itself—the rules, norms, and ideologies—is constantly in flux and can be altered by players.

 * Transgression is the primary driver of change. The act of violating a fundamental, often unseen, boundary is the catalyst for a new historical "game" to begin.

 * The transgressor gains a unique advantage. By being the first to break a sacred or unspoken rule, the transgressor forces the established power to react and defend a position that they had previously taken for granted. This puts the transgressor in a position of power, as they are now defining the terms of the new conflict.

The Dynamics of Transgression and Historical Outcomes

The theory proposes a cyclical dynamic:

 * Establishment of a system: A societal system, belief, or ideology becomes dominant and defines the "rules of the game." These rules create "unseen boundaries" or implicit taboos.

 * The act of transgression: An actor (individual, group, or nation) violates a fundamental boundary of this system. This is a "transgressive act."

 * The paradox of reinforcement and destabilization: This is the core of the theory. The transgression simultaneously destabilizes the existing order while also forcing it to "re-calibrate." The act exposes the system's vulnerabilities and forces it to spend energy to defend itself. However, the successful defense of the system, ironically, can also reinforce it, making it stronger and more entrenched, at least for a time.

 * The triumph of evil: The title "How Evil Triumphs" suggests that this process can be exploited. If the transgressor's act is particularly potent and the dominant system is too slow, too rigid, or too compromised to respond effectively, the transgressive actor can leverage their advantage to fundamentally reshape the system in their favor, often leading to what is perceived as a triumph of "evil."

Example: A non-traditional game theory model would look at the decisions leading up to a war. Professor Jiang's "transgression theory" would, by contrast, focus on the singular, often "irrational" or "evil," act that broke the unspoken rules of diplomacy and trust, forcing the subsequent events to unfold in a new and unexpected way.

YouTube References for Further Exploration

To understand this specific application of game theory, you would need to go directly to the source. The "Predictive History" channel is the central repository for this concept.

 * Predictive History YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PredictiveHistory

 * "Secret History" Series: Look for the videos within the "Secret History" playlist. The specific video "How Evil Triumphs" is the one you mentioned, and other videos in the series, such as "The Birth of Evil," "How Power Works," and "How Societies Collapse" would likely delve into related concepts and provide further context for the theory of transgression.

 * "Geo-Strategy Update" Series: The channel also has a series on current events where Professor Jiang applies his analytical frameworks to contemporary geopolitical situations. These videos, such as "WWIII Begins, Let's Game Theory," can provide practical examples of how the "Universal Law of Game Theory" and the concept of transgression are used in his analyses.

It's important to remember that this is a unique framework, not a part of the standard academic curriculum of game theory. It's a specific, interpretive model used for historical and geopolitical analysis, and should be viewed within that context.