Unit 15
Alitha
Alitha Guo
Ehglish 118
Decisions…Decisions…
Recently, global warming, “the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans”,(Wikipedia) has been focused on over the world .the debate over global warming has become more critical. The opinions vary from people to people. No one can predict with absolute certainty which is true. Therefore, we transfer to think about “what’s the worst that could happen”.
Firstly, assume the global warming is true. Actually, “Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980.” “ The effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern of precipitation, as well as a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.”(Wikipedia) Considering the possibility of it, we decide to take action. Some believe if we take action early, it will benefit the world economy. For example, the 1990 Clean Air Act required companies to lower theirs’ sulfur emissions, which resulted in what the Economist called, in 2001, “the greatest environmental success story of the past decade.” Emissions were lowered faster and more than expected, and at one-quarter of the projected cost. This suggests that such a scheme, if implemented correctly could also mitigate climate change faster and more cheaply than projected. Economists also looked into the cost of reducing greenhouse gases in order to prevent the bad effects of climate change. They initially calculated that doing so would cost about 1% of global GDP each year, and then in 2008, increased that estimate to 2% because of how quickly the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing. Going by the 2% rate, paying upfront to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent further climate change would cost the world about $14 trillion a year. (Learnvest) It is inevitable to spend so much money, but we do get benefit in environment.
On the other hand, some suspect that there’s no need to consume such a lot material resources to prevent the uncertainty. What could happen if we do so? Definitely, it saves money; however, it brings about more severe environmental disaster. Because of the increasing temperature, ice will melt worldwide. This includes mountain glaciers, ice sheets covering West Antarctica and Greenland, and Arctic sea ice. The heat is not only melting glaciers and sea ice, it’s also shifting precipitation patterns and setting animals on the move. “Researcher Bill Fraser has tracked the decline of the Adélie penguins on Antarctica, where their numbers have fallen from 32,000 breeding pairs to 11,000 in 30 years.”(National Geography) Besides, Hurricanes and other storms are likely to become stronger. “New climate analyses led by Stanford scientists indicate that global warming is likely to cause a robust increase in the conditions that produce these types of storms across much of the country over the next century.”(Stanford.edu) The IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ) have forecasted the regional impacts of global change. For North Aerica, “Decreasing snowpack in the western mountains; 5-20 percent increase in yields of rain-fed agriculture in some regions; increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in cities that currently experience them”.(climate.nasa.gov) Those destroy our planet which means we don’t have comfortable environment anymore. The world becomes chaos.
Facing with the uncertainty, I see the payment as worthwhile. Although it cost a huge amount of money, it does rescue our world. Right now, the modern financial system runs stable so it won’t collapse after the expenditures. On the contrary, we choose to ignore the possibility, which may contribute to the worst result. It will be a global catastrophe. If we suffer economic losses, there’s still a chance to make up. But if we lose our earth, nothing can be done. The choice is obvious. Take action, the earlier the better.
