What the passenger will get with a new rail controller
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transport policy, writes Stuart Cole
TODAY the responsibility for the Wales and Borders rail franchise
transfers from the UK Department for Transport (DfT) to the National
Assembly
This follows five years of parliamentary and governmental discussion
leading to the Railways Act 2005.
The new responsibility will rest with the Minister for Enterprise,
Innovation and Networks (formerly Economic Development and Transport),
Andrew Davies, and takes Wales closer to a national integrated
transport policy.
Rail infrastructure will continue to be owned and operated by Network
Rail but can receive National Assembly funding. The Assembly has also
been involved in the Greater Western franchise process - it contains a
cost estimate for extending services to Cardiff International Airport.
It is the financial responsibility for the Wales and Borders franchise
which will now concern the Government. The operator, Arriva Trains
Wales, will take its direction from Mr Davies, who can determine
operational aspects such as train capacity, service levels and fares
over and above the agreed contract, so long as the Government is
prepared to pay for them.
Arriva Trains Wales cannot be expected to cover the costs of additional
train provision from the existing contract.
Current annual demand increases in Wales of nearly 10%, much of it in
the peak period, could generate more revenue but with fares staying at
the same level and off-peak demand increases requiring extensive
marketing, this is unlikely.
The current subsidy (£140m in 2006-07) will be insufficient to provide
capacity to meet this demand level and would certainly not cover the
cost of new trains or expanded service over and above those which
Arriva Trains Wales priced in its bid. This is not the Assembly
Government's fault.
It was consulted by the SRA before the franchise was offered, but its
concerns about the demand forecasts were not heeded.
This is illustrated by the Vale of Glamorgan and Ebbw Valley lines
investment (£44m) and the leasing of additional trains and increased
frequency to cover the capacity gap (overcrowding) over the next two
years on the Cardiff metropolitan services (£50m).
The Assembly also now has the responsibility and power to provide
investment in facilities outside Wales (such as the Marches line from
Newport to Chester, most of which is in England but provides the
"backbone" linking the three primary east-west routes in Wales).
So what can the passenger expect to see as a result of the new
controller? Short-term investment will bring some improvements in
services, station facilities, cleaner and newer leased trains on some
but not all routes (North-South Wales services will see new trains in
the next few months), better information on stations and via Traveline
Cymru, and a greater police presence on stations.
In the longer term (3-5 years) the Assembly may purchase new trains (as
part of a bigger order with another franchise to get the best price).
These would be available for the next two franchise-lettings conducted
by the Assembly Government and not by a London-based body with other
priorities.
This would mean more trains on more routes with reduced journey times
on prime services. Track investment of £50m would reduce the travel
time from Bangor to Cardiff to three hours with a short-term option
cutting out some stations on a morning peak service.
But where will the investment be prioritised? The economic investment
realities will no doubt not be palatable to some parts of Wales.
In terms of the highest cost benefit results, the order of priority
would be Cardiff-Newport Metro, South Wales Main Line, North Wales Main
Line, north-south services and rural services. However, the amounts of
funding for restructured services and increased promotional funding
could push services on the Heart of Wales, Pembrokeshire and Cambrian
Line further up the priority list.
The decision makers have also changed. There is now direct governance
of the railways in Wales from the Government (as there is in England
and Scotland) - a position unique and unprecedented in peacetime
Europe.
In the past there was an SRA, a British Rail, a Deutsche Bahn (German
Railways) and SNCF (French Railways) between the elected authorities
and the operating railway. This no longer exists in Great Britain.
It is an experiment in railway management to be watched carefully.
Professor Stuart Cole is Director, Wales Transport Research Centre, and
Professor of Transport at the University of Glamorgan