Fwd: VMT and gas prices
Susana Dancy
From: Todd Alexander Litman <lit...@VTPI.ORG>Date: May 19, 2011 12:45:40 AM EDTSubject: VMT and gas pricesReply-To: The Practice of New Urbanism <PRO...@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>I just updated two reports that investigate these issues. They indicate that over the long run, fuel price increases do significantly reduce vehicle travel, particularly if travelers have good transport and location options. Current demographic and economic trends appear to be increasing the price sensitivity of travel.
"Changing Vehicle Travel Price Sensitivities: The Rebounding Rebound Effect" (www.vtpi.org/VMT_Elasticities.pdf )
There is growing interest in transportation pricing reforms to help achieve objectives such as congestion reductions, traffic safety and emission reductions. Their effectiveness is affected by the price sensitivity of transport, that is, the degree that travelers respond to price changes, measured as elasticities (the percentage change in vehicle travel caused by a percentage change in price). Lower elasticities (price changes have little impact on travel activity) imply that price reforms are not very effective at achieving objectives, higher prices significantly harm consumers, and rebound effects (additional vehicle travel caused by increased fuel efficiency) are small so strategies that increase vehicle fuel efficiency are relatively effective at conserving fuel. Higher elasticities imply that price reforms are relatively effective, consumers are able to reduce vehicle travel, and rebound effects are relatively large. Some studies found that price elasticities declined during the last quarter of the Twentieth Century but recent evidence suggests that transport is becoming more price sensitive. This report discusses the concepts of price elasticities and rebound effects, reviews information on vehicle travel and fuel price elasticities, examines evidence of changing price elasticities, and discusses policy implications.
"Transportation Elasticities: How Prices and Other Factors Affect Travel Behavior" (www.vtpi.org/elasticities.pdf )
This report investigates the influence that prices and service quality have on travel behavior. It summarizes research on various types of transportation elasticities and describes how to use this information to predict the travel impacts of specific price reforms and management strategies.
Here are two other studies that list members may find interesting. They indicate that fuel price increases reduce demand for sprawled development:
Raven Molloy and Hui Shan (2011), The Effect of Gasoline Prices on Household Location, Federal Reserve Board (https://federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201036/201036pap.pdf ).
A 10% gasoline price increase reduces demand for housing in locations with a long average commutes by 10% after a 4-year lag.
Where We Want To Be: Household Location Preferences And Their Implications For Smart Growth (www.vtpi.org/sgcp.pdf ).
This report investigates consumer housing location preferences and their relationship to smart growth. It examines claims that most households prefer sprawl-location housing and so are harmed by smart growth policies. This analysis indicates that smart growth tends to benefit consumers in numerous ways. Market research indicates that most households want improved accessibility (indicated by shorter commutes), land use mix (indicated by nearby shops and services), and diverse transport options (indicated by good walking conditions and public transit services) and will often choose small-lot and attached homes with these features. Demographic and economic trends are increasing smart growth demand, causing a shortage of such housing. Demand for sprawl housing is declining, resulting in oversupply and reduced value. The current stock of large-lot housing is adequate for the foreseeable future, but the supply of small-lot and attached housing will need to approximately double by 2025 to meet growing demand.
Please let me know if you have questions or comments about these studies.
Sincerely,
Todd Litman
Victoria Transport Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org)
Phone & Fax 250-360-1560
1250 Rudlin Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, CANADA
“Efficiency - Equity - Clarity”
Wed, 18 May 2011 15:04:59 -0700,Steve Coyle <st...@TOWN-GREEN.COM> wrote:
We seek studies or other sources of information that estimate VMT (and/or transit use increase, etc.) reductions resulting from retail gas prices increases or thresholds. Most of the studies we've read show minimum driver behavior change but few predict, for example, the consequence from a doubling of current pump prices. I've included the opinion of one blogger below. Thanks!
Steve Coyle
The dynamics of gas price spikes
eric h
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