Thanks for the numbers. It's hard to give advice/suggestions without having the figures, and even then, you know the price points, and the profit margins better.
That being said, while I love the support you are giving us, I'd like to clearly state that I feel the "Secret Level" is a bad idea. Really. If Kickstarter will allow such a thing, it still has the potential to cause a lot of confusion and angst among new backers. I'm not sure those not in the know would share your view that it is "funny." (though again, it is appreciated by us). But, all I know is how I'd feel if I saw this on a game I wanted to back.
Please think again about letting all of us know, well in advance, of a general Early Bird level. CMON has done that with some of their board games, and previous backers of Zombicide quickly took most of the early bird slots in Rivet Wars on Kickstarter because they did a direct emailing prior to the Kickstarter launch. If you're afraid of 300 units quickly disappearing (providing you immediate funding for a third of the project), what about 450? Could you afford that number of units at $45 apiece? That would provide you with half the initial funding goal.
As for nixing the idea of exclusive dice - is there any way to incorporate your old plan to create single (more expensive) dice, in a more limited number? Or would that just make everything way too complicated, dealing with different factories, dice not matching, etc.
Looking at your numbers again.
$61k to make, receive, and ship 2,000 games (with 14 monsters?). If you were to sell just half - 1,000 games, shipping costs would be reduced - to make the total costs be around $48k. And 450 units at $45, and 550 at $49 would *just* about reach that. But that's not counting Amazon/KS's $5k in fees, plus shipping overages, and fees for designers, your profit, etc. Or storage rental to keep the remaining 1,000 units in inventory.
I can see how juggling these numbers is challenging.
Maybe you could take the approach that Dungeon Roll used, and put all of this rationale clearly in the Kickstarter updates for those who don't see how expensive it is to make a high-quality, multi-dice game like this one.