P3d Weather

[Danny Hosford]

Scatteredsevere thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains Sunday while heavy to excessive rainfall may bring flooding to northern Minnesota and the Tennessee Valley. Dry and windy conditions will bring elevated to critical fire weather across parts of the Great Basin while dry thunderstorms may lead to new wildfire starts in the northern Rockies. Read More >

US Dept of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service

1325 East West Highway

Silver Spring, MD 20910

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Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format. GEFS Probabilities Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.

Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.

An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles, and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required to view ECMWF data). *Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.

Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their respective departures from climatology. Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts. Weather in Context Prototype Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool is available for both CONUS and Alaska. Prototype Specialized Excessive Rainfall Maps Interface for specialized WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Maps for NWS County Warning Areas and States. 1/3/6/24-hr Changes Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).

The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts available out through 7 days.

With nearly 4,900 employees in 122 weather forecast offices, 13 river forecast centers, 9 national centers, and other support offices around the country, NWS provides a national infrastructure to gather and process data worldwide.

A mere 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock over an adult. It takes just 12 inches of rushing water to carry away a small car, while 2 feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles. It is NEVER safe to drive or walk into flood waters.

Since most of the park lies at an elevation of 6,000 feet (1829 m) above sea level or higher, unpredictability characterizes Yellowstone's weather. Expect big temperature swings, rain, or snow during every month of the year. No matter when you visit, bring a warm jacket, rain gear, and lots of layers.

Daytime temperatures are often around 70F (21C) and occasionally 80F (27C) at lower elevations. Nights are usually cool and temperatures may drop below freezing at higher elevations. Thunderstorms are common in the afternoons.

Temperatures range from zero to 20F (-18C to -7C) throughout the day. Sub-zero temperatures are common, especially at night and at higher elevations. The record low temperature is -66F (-54C). Snowfall is highly variable. While the average is 150 inches (381 cm) a year, it is not uncommon for higher elevations to get twice that amount.

70% of air traffic delays are due to inclement weather, according to the American Meteorological Society, resulting in billions of dollars loss to airlines and passenger dissatisfaction. With the frequency and severity of disruptive aviation incidents, you need a weather partner you can trust.

From planning your day to staying safe in severe weather, The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, and Storm Radar are part of the daily habit for more than 50 million people a day. And with 89% of people opting-in to share their location, our consumer properties are widely trusted by users and advertisers looking for a brand-safe environment.

The increasing intensity of global weather events makes it more difficult for government and defense personnel to plan and simulate upcoming operations effectively, potentially resulting in costly delays, equipment damage, and dangerous situations.

But when used correctly, weather can be a powerful ally. Our comprehensive, AI-powered weather modeling and simulation solutions can improve strategic decision-making by integrating highly accurate and globally scaled forecast data into government and defense planning and simulation environments, saving time, money, and precious resources.

We are now leveraging our big data smarts to deliver on the promise of IoT. By integrating our hyper-local weather data with Smart Home connected devices we are delievering predictive energy efficiency insight to homeowners and Utility companies.

Researchers from World Weather Attribution assessed the influence of human-caused climate change on dangerous heat waves over the past 12 months, in collaboration with Climate Central and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

World Weather Attribution uses weather observations and climate models to understand how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. The studies also assess the role of vulnerability and exposure in the extent of the impacts.

Near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles: An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form mid to late week while the system is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or southwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 40 percent.

A tropical wave is along 95W, from 20N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. This tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is noted nearby in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ridging dominates the basin with light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas in the northeast half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and 2-5 ft seas in the southwest half of the Gulf. Limited isolated showers or thunderstorms are present with mainly fair conditions across the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place from the eastern U.S. Across the eastern Gulf waters through Thu allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the forecast period due to local effects.

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the central basin from 13N to 18N between 72W and 79W. Fresh to strong winds are in the central basin from 11N to 18N between 72W to offshore Nicaragua and to the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6-10 ft across these waters. Moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin, except light and variable winds in the SW Caribbean south of 11N.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas and is building over the eastern and central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean that will persist into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the west and northwest Caribbean, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night through Wed associated with of an approaching strong tropical wave.

A stationary front off northeast Florida along 30N to 1015 mb low pressure near 32N71W supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of it to 27N between 67W and the coast of Florida including across portions of the northern Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are occurring north of 29N and between 65W and 74W to the south of the frontal boundary. A cold front is just NW of the Canary Islands. The rest of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted off Western Sahara and Mauritania to 20W and north of 19N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas of mainly 4-6 ft are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front off northeast Florida along 30N will drift SE and gradually dissipate through Mon. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge will build across the region thereafter into mid-week, supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu.

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, a component of the 403rd Wing located at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss., is a one-of-a-kind organization. It is the only operational unit in the world flying weather reconnaissance on a routine basis.

The mission of the Hurricane Hunters is to recruit, organize and train assigned personnel to perform aerial weather reconnaissance. They provide surveillance of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the central Pacific Ocean for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The unit also flies winter storm missions off both coasts of the United States.

AIRCRAFT:

To perform their mission, the Hurricane Hunters have 10 WC-130J aircraft. These Super Hercules aircraft are equipped with palletized meteorological data-gathering instruments. The WC-130J is the next generation "Hurricane Hunter" designed to continue weather reconnaissance well into the 21st century.

PERSONNEL AUTHORIZED:

The 53rd WRS is authorized 20 aircrews. Fifty-nine unit members hold air reserve technician positions. The rest of the squadron is made up of Air Force Reservists.

WC-130Js carry a basic crew of five: pilot, co-pilot, navigator, flight meteorologist and weather reconnaissance loadmaster. The pilot, who serves as the aircraft commander, and the co-pilot man the flight controls. The navigator keeps track of the aircraft's position and movement and monitors radar to avoid tornadic activity. The flight meteorologist acts as flight director and observes and records meteorological data at flight level using a computer that encodes weather data every 30 seconds. The weather reconnaissance loadmaster collects and records vertical meteorological data using a parachute-borne sensor known as a dropsonde. It measures and encodes weather data down to the ocean surface.

Co-located with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, is a small group of Air Force Reserve civilian personnel, assigned to the 53rd WRS. The supervisory meteorologist of the unit serves as Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes, better known as CARCAH.

These personnel are responsible for coordinating Department of Commerce requirements for hurricane data, tasking weather reconnaissance missions and monitoring all data transmitted from weather reconnaissance aircraft.

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