Day 2

[Kurtz, Philip]

Do we set up another thread for day 2 or just keep appending the thread that exists?

I actually survived audit and now have 4 days with a lot of free time.

[John Wayne]Daylight's burning[/John Wayne].

[cckerberos]

There's usually a new thread for each Night.

Today went well, even better than yesterday. Just let the townies kill
each other. None of us got any votes or even any suspicion, really,
other than Hoopy Frood who Blaster Master seems to be going after for
very little reason. Watching BM play has been real educational. Maybe
it's just because I know the people he's going after are innocent, but
its amazing how he twists people's words to accuse them and then
rejects their explanations. He's really the scummiest player in the
game so far. I think a few of the townies are getting suspicious of
him and if some time was invested in it that we could get him lynched.

Anyone know where we can find a copy of JSexton's mafia formula? The
appearance of a vigilante was rather unexpected and I'm wondering what
it does to the estimated town makeup. Maybe there are no masons? Not
that we know for sure whether the mod used the formula in the first
place...

Who should we hit? It's 7-4 now, and think making it to 6-4 would be
great for us. I'm actually thinking that we shouldn't hit either RyJae
or BM. RyJae may be the Detective, but he has a lot of suspicion
surrounding him and I don't think his claim is particularly believed.
I think that it might be well worth it to counterclaim detective if
one of us looks like he's going to get lynched. BM hasn't exactly been
a force for good in the game so far, and I think that if we leave him
alone he may well help get Oredigger77 lynched next turn. One of them
are likely to be protected as well. So I'm thinking we should go after
fluiddruid, Zsofia, dotchan, or Thing Fish. It's unlikely TF has a
power role else he would have claimed it when things began looking
grim, but odds are one of the other 3 are the Doctor. I'm leaning
towards fluiddruid.

But I guess that depends on Today's votes for TUO not raising much
suspicion.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I'd like to hit Fluiddruid. She seems to be playing fairly cautiously. I also think she might be the doctor.

I definitely did not expect there to be a vigilante either; I would think the masons would likely be eliminated with 4 scum and a vig, but that's really just a not-completely wild-ass guess. I haven't seen the magic formula.
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-----Original Message-----
From: cckerberos <ccker...@hotmail.com>

Date: Thu, 22 May 2008 19:57:54
To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[golf]

Ok and maybe I have not been as obvious as I thought. I made a
Sherlock Holmes reference the first day on my anyrose OMGUS vote.
Then I made a Batman reference during the night calling for Robin to
get to the bat cave. Yesterday I make the ten little Indians
reference - Agatha Christie. The three greatest detecs ogf all time.
I gotta believe that Blam sees this. Hence his vote on Oredigger -
where I put mine for a lame fucking reason.

I am thinking we get to play this two ways tomorrow regardless of whom
our lynch target is - no one but RyJay. Keep the course - We'll
probably when or let's sow confusion like a mother fuck. I'll wait
until about late Tues and then counter claim detec. Confirm Blam as
town with the caveat that he could be a godfather and then do one
other confirm. Probably one of you guys being scum, unfortunately.

Takes deep breath and waits for my team mates.

[cckerberos]

Okay, but for that to work won't you have to confirm Oredigger as scum
to explain your vote there?

[golf]

I think I have enough for that.

Just to put on the table for potential options tomorrow.

I am down for a Zsofia or Dotchan whack. Thing Fish has just got to
be vanilla. Obviously RyJay is the detec. Ore also appears to be
vanilla. Blam, who knows - but can only be doc, mas or vanilla.

Guess our choice is among those three. If RyJay fingers someone,
cause he is going to do it early on, we just have to sow confusion to
give the rest of us time to re align. And if we have to play this to
win as opposed to us all making it to the end alive then, Meh.

And if my acceleration hurts our cause then so be it.

You gals/guys are doing great by the way.

[golf]

Thing fish - gotta be vanilla based on day one

Ryjay = detec

Dotchan = who knows

Blam = confirmed town

Fluid = who knows

Zsofia = who knows

Ore777 = who knows

Thing fish - gotta be vanilla

Vote for Zsofia or fluid. Can we get some discussion and after that
whatever.
I kind of screwed our chance to talk but it was, Meh.

[golf]

So just thinking a little more - always dangerous. I don't know how
the whole vig thing factors in the calculation of balance but seems to
be really helpful for the town - especially the deeper in she/he can
get. I don't see why we would lynch Ry or Blam since we can counter
claim a whole bunch and basically tie up another day through all that
hoo haw. Gotta figure that the fish is just vanilla. From most to
least on the powerrole situation:

Tf- if he was one he would have claimed day one

Fd - got a wedding going on that is sucking up resources. Seems to be
RL (and I personally understand that pain)

Dot - no read whatsoever. Even though a sub I just gotta feel that if
there was something there that the contributions would have been more.

50/50 between od and zs.

Since I think we have some good or at least plausible discussions
around od my vote choices are currently in order

Zsofia
Dotchan
Fluid
Oredigger
Fish
Blam
Ryj

[golf]

And I am thinking that if we get lucky and get the doc AND one of us
gets fingered then that person has to immediately counter claim
detec. Right?

[cckerberos]

Claiming detective is a big risk and should be dependent on how well
Tomorrow seems to be going for us. If we're successful Tonight and a
townie gets lynched Tomorrow we'll have essentially won (if we manage
to hit the doc Tonight we'll have won, period). So I think it makes
sense for us to play things conservatively Tomorrow.

At present the most suspicion is on Oredigger77 and RyJae; obviously
either of them being lynched would be great for us. As Day 3 starts
we'll probably also be looking at suspicion placed on those who voted
for The Unkempt One and on fluiddruid because that's who TUO voted
for. Thankfully, I don't think Hoopy Frood or I have to be
particularly concerned about blowback from our votes because the cases
against RJ and TUO were considered quite solid. Blaster Master might
take HF's vote as additional evidence in his current crusade, though
(maybe we should brainstorm a defense HF should use in response to
BM?). So unless we get unlucky and things shift we'll likely be safe

RJ's credibility is low enough though, that if once of us seems to be
on the block (say, a 2 vote lead in the second half of the Day) that a
counterclaim of detective makes sense. Who that person should claim to
have investigated is something that should be carefully considered
based upon the comments they've made up to that point. I have no
objection to throwing one of us under a bus to gain some cred, but it
can backfire so we should be careful.

Anyone want to make a guess as to who RJ is going to investigate
tonight?

[Hoopy Frood]

My thoughts for the Day. (Sorry I haven't been able to chime in
earlier. I was occupied for most of yesterday).

The main advantage of night killing BlaM is that he is somewhat
confirmed. There is a claimed role that confirmed him. Because of
this, he is less apt to get lynched by town. However, his night kill
won't confirm anybody, because a scum Ryjae would know he was town and
scum could intentionally kill BlaM to try to bolster Ryjae's claim.
And it wouldn't be a bad thing to do. So BlaM's death confirms no one
but himself. We don't kill Ryjae for two reasons: 1) We confirm him
and BlaM and 2) The Doctor will likely protect him. (Although, the
Doctor might protect BlaM as a WIFOM, so that's a bit of a meta-WIFOM
going on here, but point 1 is the more important anyway.)

I'm guessing Ryjae will investigate ThingFish, Oredigger, or me. In
that order.

Now to address the BlaM thing (this is both for my fellow scum and as
an official record for the peanut gallery):

FTR, his original reasoning is wrong. I would have done the same thing
on Day 1 whether town or scum. My vote on Dotchan was consistent with
the strategy I had both planned to employ and said I would employ. The
anyrose nonsense went down during a window where I wasn't even around.
And I didn't think either Thingfish or Anyrose were scum. In fact, I
never saw the case for Thingfish in the first place. His play screamed
newbie vanilla townie. There really wasn't much scummy about it at
all. On the other hand, Anyrose was acting scummy, but her actions
were newbie vanilla townie motivated. So really, my vote was not anti-
town. And my vote was not scummy motivated either.

Now, what WAS anti-town, was the fact that I didn't support Thingfish.
As a townie on Day 1, and still getting the hang of Day 1, I would
once again have done the same thing. However, there was a scum
motivation for not supporting him. Now in this case, it didn't come
into play, but it could have. And one could make a reasonable argument
without knowing my motivation that it was. BlaM didn't mention this.
He should have, and maybe that's where his lost train of thought was
going to go, because that was what was anti-town. It was bad strategy
regardless, for either scum or town to employ. I realized this after
looking at sachertorte's (and to a lesser extend WFTomba's) defense of
One and Only Wanderers in the Cecilvania thread. They put their necks
on the line for someone they thought a bullshit case was made against.
It was a very pro-town move for anyone to make. I should have done
this. It was my unintentional screw-up, there was really no motivation
behind it. Chalk it up to inexperience.

Finally, what WAS scum motivation through and through was my actions
toDay. And this is ultimately what could send me to the gallows. I
would not have voted Unkempt One if I was town. Because, I never saw
the case against Thing Fish to begin with and I completely understand
why the votes were switched at the last minute. See, I could try to
mea culpa the above two paragraphs, because in reality, I'd be doing
that anyway if I were town. I would have acted the same way for the
exact same reasons. But! ToDay's actions would belie my mea culpa. It
is unlikely a townie who didn't see the case against ThingFish would
have voted for UO. Even though UO's actions could be attributed to a
scum motivation, they also had a town motivation. And the fact that I
started the bandwagon against him and the fact that he turned up town
essentially damns any chance I have of weaseling my way out of this.
ToDay is where I truly screwed up. I did something intentional which
was strategically bad, and there is no townie way to explain it,
because it wasn't from a townie at all. And for that, I offer a mea
culpa to you guys.

Now where we go from here is up to you. I'm happy to be bussed,
because I screwed up. In fact, if you want, use what I outlined above
against me. Bufftabby has been the most forceful of the group, so I
think it'd be best for her to drive the bandwagon, if that's what you
guys want to do. I really can't see a defense for my actions on Day 2.
In fact, knowing BlaM, I think that what I pointed out in the third
paragraph is where he was ultimately going to go had he not derailed
his train of thought. His original accusation was right for all the
wrong reasons. However, the wrong reasons would still put him on the
track to Day 2, where he would hit upon the pattern that would be
right for the right reasons.

Now, I've already stated why I think BlaM is a good night kill
candidate. As I said at the beginning of the toDay when people were
suspecting Oredigger simply because Koldanar was suspecting him,
that's a horrible reason to base a vote on. However, it is a
reasonable supporting reason on a solid foundation of other resons.
Night killing BlaM will still draw attention to me, and there are
players out there who can still figure out what I have. Dotchan is
capable, but she's been too busy so she might miss it. Fluidruid's
been more active, but she's been notably low activity as well, so she
might miss it. However, Oredigger strikes me as the newbie who just
might figure it all out. Especially if the others throw out enough
ideas.

So that's my thoughts. I still vote BlaM for night kill, due to the
original reasons of him being pretty much confirmed, and being a
dangerous foe regardless. I'm thinking that if I (or anyone else) get
under pressure for lynching, we claim Doctor. This will likely force
the Doctor to counter-claim, because another townie lynch will no
doubt lose the game for town, so to let a scum escape toMorrow would
be bad for town. At least my claim should out the last dangerous power-
role to us. If there is no counter-claim, I escape lynch, we likely
lynch a townie, and the game is likely ours.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I think you might be on to something, hoopy. We should wait and see how tomorrow is looking for you, and if you're still getting some suspicion, it might be a good idea for me to use the points you brought up against you. Then, toward the end of the Day, but not TOO late, closer to the middle, claim Doctor. Then you either get major townie cred as the doc, or the real doc claims and we get our choice of who to oFf tomorrow Night. The only question in my mind on that, really, would be who the doc would be protecting after s/he counterclaims against you? I think if we can get the doc to claim, we can safely off BlaM or ryjae tomorrow Night. ToNight, I'm concerned that a ryjae or BlaM kill would be blocked by the real doc. But a blam kill might be worth a shot tonight. If I were doc, I'd be protecting ryjae. So: if we can kill BlaM tonight, and make the doc claim tomorrow, then kill ryjae tomorrow Night, we should be in good shape.

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-----Original Message-----

From: Hoopy Frood <hoopyf...@gmail.com>

Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 06:12:39

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[golf]

I still don't think that a blam kill is optimal. If it succeeds then
to a extent we have confirmed Ry. Remember in Simpletown that a
confirmed townie was more valuable than confirmed scum. The longer we
keep confirmed in the air the better.

The k lynch took a lot of time on the why.

Stay the course zs fd or dot, Imho.

As always I am will defer to the group.

And it's freaking great to have a 4 day weekend after 2 weeks of 16
hour days.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

You make a good point about keeping BlaM's alignment in question. I'd prefer a FD vote, but I'm ok with dotchan or zsofia as well.

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-----Original Message-----

From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 09:52:38

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[Hoopy Frood]

But he is kind of confirmed already. It's always good to kill the
confirmed because if we hit the unknown pool, we reduce the pool of
likely lynchees. If you honestly think we could pull off a BlaM lynch
toMorrow, that would be good reason to keep him alive, but I don't
think town's going to go for that, and though we might be able to get
enough people to ride our lynch train, if we don't, we out ourselves.
I don't see anyone putting any real pressure on BlaM. We'd have to
create that by ourselves. Not to mention that if BlaM tries hard
enough he can come up with the case I presented above, and if he does
it before you guys do, you'll get considerably less townie cred. BlaM
is the only one gunning for me right now. While others might start to
take a look at me, I'm not worried about that. I figure you guys can
judge the overall townie sentiment and preempt their attacks by doing
it first. I've given you all the material. Additionally, BlaM showing
up town upon death, being suspicious about me, and one of you picking
up his mantle, looks very good for whichever of you does it. If we
leave BlaM alive toNight, he'll likely come out swinging, and it
creates a WIFOM for you guys as to whether you want to beat him to the
punch, or hold back and hope he doesn't present the case that I see
above. I can try to come up with some defense to explain what I did,
but I can't see one that is very airtight at this moment. Combined
with a claim of Doctor, I might be able to postpone my lynch, but the
more solidly and forceful the case is made against me, the less apt
anyone's going to ask for counter-claim, because if town thinks I'm
scum for sure, my claim won't matter.

YesterDay was a matter of night killing a random townie. ToNight, we
have info. I'm fine with any of the names tossed out so far (FD would
probably be my first pick among the rest), but by taking any of them
out, we can't throw suspicion on them.

Speaking of, anyone in particular we want to throw suspicion on
toMorrow? Also, if you guys do bus me, should I counter attack one of
you and with what case? (Actually, bufftabby, if you could make a case
against yourself that I could use as a counterattack should you decide
to bus me, it might be the best course to take. It can't be overly
weak, because phoning it in looks bad, but it can't be as strong as
your case against me would be, because it will put you too much under
the radar.)

[Hoopy Frood]

I will say one thing, though, in favor of a non-BlaM night kill: it's
pretty much guaranteed to go through.

These are the only two who stand to be protected by the Doc. Anyone
else is probably as close ot a guaranteed death as we can expect in
this closed setup.

So really, whatever you guys think is fine. I see the benefits and
disadvantages of both. We stand to gain more and lose more if we hit
[b]BlaM[/b]. The other choices only run the risk of narrowing the
unconfirmed pool. And we might hit a power-role anyway. (Though, if we
hit the doctor, that kind of destroys the doctor claim idea.)

I'm still curious as to why UO didn't claim.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

Yeah, I would've claimed like hell in that position, and I don't even *have* a power role. I kinda wish he had lived, so he could off a Townie for us.

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-----Original Message-----

From: Hoopy Frood <hoopyf...@gmail.com>

Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 11:13:06

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[golf]

From where I sit we can't kill either ry or bm. We kill ry he shows
up detec and the only argument we have against bm is godfather.

We just need to get a kill. Percentages are against us starting now.
I still think that a z fd or dot whack makes the most sense. If the
kill does not go through then we no who the self protecting doc is.
Alternatively we nail the doc and ry is toast manana. Based on 4
vanilla scum a one shot vig evens this thing out perfectly.
Especially if there is a no self protect doc. So I'll go wherever you
want to but still think that ry and bm should be off limits.

[golf]

One last thought. Should one of us claim detec right off tomorrow to
just muddy the water.
Since it seems that we are inclined to let ry press on it would give
him 3 plus himself on the next day.

I think I could pull this off since I am back from the land of audit
and will be much more available next week.

Which of course, will look scummy, sheesh.

Back in a bit.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I'm not sure how I feel about a detective claim tomorrow, but I definitely agree that

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-----Original Message-----

From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 15:56:55

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[bethan...@gmail.com]

Sorry. Let's try again.

I'm not sure how I feel about a detective claim tomorrow, but I definitely agree that we shouldn't try to hit blam or ryjae, bc I don't want to run across one of them being protected. I'd rather try to find the doc to take out, and I think it might be FD. But I could be dead wrong o course. I had a feeling about koldanar, and he was vanilla as hell.

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-----Original Message-----

From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 15:56:55

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[golf]

I agree that rj and bm should be off limits tonight. And i think each
one of us better be constructing something if they are fingered by rj
tomorrow as scum. If it be me it is going to go along the lines of bm
being town and hoopy being scum. There is no animosity about bussing
someone at this time. And if you have to do it to me I TOTALLY
understand. Let's just bring this one home.

Thoughts? We are going to be getting up on my accelerated schedule.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I think if somebody gets called out as scum by rj, maybe claim doctor, and say rj is clearly scum. If we kill fd tonight, and the doc doesn't counterclaim at that point, we can narrow down our doc candidates.

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-----Original Message-----
From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 16:24:49

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[golf]

Ok last time.

Ry = detec
Tf = vanilla
Bm = something
Dot = who knows
Od = probable vanilla
Zs = who knows
Fd = who knows

Let's whack Zsofia. Playing a little bit but also under the radar.

That's where my vote lands. The other who knows are kind of what I
would expect.

[golf]

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I can get behind a zsofia hit. She seems to have more to say about strategy than what she really thinks, and we know she's not scum, so she could be the doc.

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-----Original Message-----
From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 21:00:56

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[golf]

My thought exactly. We know she aint us so she be town. And it's not
like anyone has paid too much notice to her so far. I'd think at a
minimum we just rid ourselves of another troublesome townie. And if
she's the doc and does not self protect - home run.

Up to hoopy and the underwold dog.

[golf]

One last thought: if Ry fingers you as scum it's gotta be a counter
detec claim.

[cckerberos]

I'd be okay with a Zsofia hit.

BTW, I just noticed that I'm the only player to have voted for both
successful lynchings (other than TF, but his first vote doesn't really
count). I wonder if that's going to get me a FoS.

[golf]

I think we just wing it.

I know that if I get touched manana or if RJ outs me I am
counterclaiming detec no matter what because of the "crumbs" that I
posted which were way over the top in my estimation. I think the rest
of you can go the doc route unless we happen to get the doc tonight or
if you get outed by RJ and then it has to be detec - maybe.

And the maybe revoles around the vig aspect. Might there be no Masons
to balance. I kind of think that there are two of them. If we whack
Z and she is one then a Mason counter claim would also work.

[golf]

And I just gotta ask because my wife thinks I am an idiot and I agree
with her on most things. Did any of you catch the Sherlock, Batman
and Christie references?

[golf]

And of course one thought begets another. How about a PWI in the main
thread where one of us implicates a townie?

I know that it gets one of us stretched but at this point one for one
is not that horrible, especially if its BM or RJ.

[cckerberos]

I saw the Batman. I missed the Sherlock one and am not particularly
familiar with Agatha Christie so wouldn't have gotten that one anyway.

[golf]

And how are things in New Guinea these days? LOL

We've gotta make a chice PDQ. Only 9 hours to deadline time.

[golf]

> And I didn't think either Thingfish or Anyrose were scum.

On re - read this one made me chuckle. FCS you guys are killing me.

Zsofia or fluid?

[bethan...@gmail.com]

My first game, I was a townie, and I was still on every single townie hit. It was something ridiculous, like 4 or 5 in a row. I kept expecting to get some suspicion for it, but never did. I don't know about our current townie players, but I tend to look for scum in the one-off votes more than anything else.

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-----Original Message-----

From: cckerberos <ccker...@hotmail.com>

Date: Sat, 24 May 2008 02:03:17

[Hoopy Frood]

Heh, heh. What I meant to say is I didn't think either one of them had
a good scum case against them. I would have felt the same way as a
townie.

One other possiblity I'd throw out is ThingFish, because I'm pretty
sure that's who Ryjae investigates tonight. However, it's pretty
obvious he's vanilla. The only thing ThingFish gets us is not
narrowing the pool of unknowns, but that's only if Ryjae investigates
him. If Ryjae investigates someone else, we get nothing. So the
advantage TF has over BlaM is that he won't be blocked. I'm not ruling
out the possibility of BlaM being a power role, either.

But, I think Zsofia is a fine choice, so if that's what you guys want,
I say go with it. I assume bufftabby will do the honors again of
informing our illustrious mod.

Also, I probably won't be able to chime in again toNight, since I'll
be busy this afternoon, but I'm thinking we hold off on pre-empting
BlaM's case against me. I think we let him fire the first shot. He
might be able to highlight the points against me that I did, but he
might not. The last point is the key. If he doesn't make that
argument, I doubt too many are going to follow him, since no one tried
to jump on his bandwagon yesterday. Heck, one townie even said they
don't see the case. If you guys come out swinging using the arguments
I put forth, it'll likely get me lynched, though, it could get you
massive cred. It's a WIFOM, so I'm going to let you guys make the
decision on that one. I'm still thinking if anyone should do it,
though, it should be bufftabby, since it'd be most consistent with her
play style so far.

See you guys on the flipside.

--Hoopy

Here's hoping that when I return, there's only 10 of us remaining.

[golf]

Let's do this reverse alpahbetticall. Z gets it in the neck.

Buff you down for the notice?

And regardless we have a TON of outs manana.

Just can't decide at this point. Mass confusion needs to be our
goal. And if we have to pile on a lynch then do so. We've got the
numbers at this point.

Woot Woot - go SCUM.

Buff, as usual let us know here when you've made to call and we can
stop posting.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

The deed is done. Let's kick some townie ass.

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-----Original Message-----

From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Sat, 24 May 2008 08:37:36

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day 2

[CoG888]

I was hoping you guys would just enslave ZSofia as the Mafia maid, but
you had to go and try to kill her. Oh well, she was too violent,
anyway.
Kill target confirmed.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

Is it wrong that I think that would be hot? Eh, if that's wrong, I don't wanna be right!

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-----Original Message-----

From: CoG888 <cog...@yahoo.com>

Date: Sat, 24 May 2008 13:09:56