Day Three Discussion

[CoG888]

Forum open for business....

[golf]

Well if our illustrios Mod has opened this thread then we have a lot
to talk about - or nothing at all. I have been hurting since my
Mexico expedition but actually went into work 2 hours early today to
see how this would play out so I could be present at the end of the
day.

[cckerberos]

Sweet... so we now have a 93.75% chance of winning right?

I think we should hit fluid tonight.

[golf]

I've got a different thought but want hear from the others before it
is floated.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I figured we'd kill blam, but I hate to be so damn predictable. I'm def willing to consider any other options.
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-----Original Message-----
From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Thu, 29 May 2008 16:28:08
To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day Three Discussion

[golf]

Ok. I am the last of the romamtics. Our Mod took the time to design
some fun for us. Thank you.

In my mind the whole point of [b]this[/b] game was to get new blood
involved. What did we communally, do? We ran then off and now we get
to listen to [b]Blam[/b] blather. Kill him and let [b]TF[/b] figure
it out between me and [b]Ry[/b]. I'll try hard but winning the game
is not as important as playing the game. TF is a keeper as well as
the rest of you. The only thing we have to play for is a perfect game
- no scum get killed. I'll go this way as well.

It's only my second game played live but this sucker can take it out
of you if you let it.

I just think that to coin flip it till the end is gonna not feel right
(course that's essentially what I did last game - ask Buff).

Whack the [b]Blam[/b] and I'll continue to run interferance. Worst
case scenario it's still three to three and the coin flip favors us.
Let's encourage the fish or dot to step it up.

I can't believe I just said that.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I can support pretty much any kill you guys come up with, as long as its not ryjae (of course). There are definite advantages to each kill.

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-----Original Message-----
From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Thu, 29 May 2008 16:57:08

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day Three Discussion

[golf]

Dot or tf is the whack. And tf is my first choice. Can still get
Blam or the rest with a pile on.

Its going to come down to an easy win with ry and me going head to
head. If it looks like I am losing bus and run like heck.

[cckerberos]

I don't get it. Why should we bus you if it becomes clear that you're
scum? At this point we essentially can't lose as long as we all vote
as a block. I agree that we should try to get them to lynch another
townie making it a perfect game, but if it looks like that's not going
to happen we should shrug our shoulders and win the normal way.

[Hoopy Frood]

I composed the following earlier toDay, when it was apparent that
Oredigger would bite it, while I was bored at work since I knew I'd be
out seeing Avenue Q (great show, BTW, I highly recommend it) while the
end of the Day went down:

I must give a hearty kudos to peekercpa. Your claim was brilliant. At
first I though it was too much of a risk, but when it turned even more
tide against Ryjae, I realized the genius of it. The funniest thing is
that Ryjae thinks that it was planned all along, but really it was
your decision. I would like to know your rationale behind it, since my
original instinct was that it was a bad idea, and clearly I was wrong
on that.

Also, cckerbreros, your snuggling up to peekercpa after the claim and
his "just because I'm detective doesn't mean your not scum" response
were a nice touch as well. Well played on that one both of you.

And I'd also like to congratulate bufftabby on being the seemingly
most townie player left, in spite of the fact she's scum. She's been
very active; very well-reasoned in her arguments, and even got a
slight snuggle from BlaM.

Now on to strategy for toNight/toMorrow:

A nod to Oredigger for understanding what I'm about to say. I really
didn't think anyone was going to get it, and was surprised that the
newbie did when I asked the question of why it would not be logical
for scum to whack the detective. I downplayed the confusion factor in
my hypothetical, but really, when the numbers are like they are,
leaving the detective alive for confusion purposes is sometimes better
to whacking him. Especially when the detective in question is not
trusted by town. Oredigger seemed to be the only townie to understand
this. Heck, I almost think I overplayed my hand because I was fearing
that someone else would link the likely scum Hoopy Frood to advocating
a non-detective lynch being a bad thing and we should whack the
detective instead of a different townie. Granted, even if they whacked
a detective, it would have been Ryjae, so we were pretty safe going
into toMorrow regardless, but toMorrow would essentially out us all.
Now we still have confusion on our side. I know we're likely to win
this thing on shear probability of coin-tosses (15/16 chance, after
all), but I'd prefer to win with the final nail being accomplished
through finesse of an uncontested townie lynch rather than on luck.

[Added after viewing later posts: Apparently BlaM now sees the wisdom
in not killing the Gumshoe as well.]

So I think our plans should precede as follows:

1) Leave Ryjae alive tonight. No one trusts him. His anti-town
behavior has tightened his own noose. Also, with two detectives
tomorrow, town will only get more confused. Confusion is good. If we
play our cards right, we might be able to get him full out lynched.
The coup-de-grace we apply to town is getting them to lynch their own
detective as their last play. It'd be epic.

2) Whack BlaM tonight. Yes, I know I've thrown him out as kill target
on the other nights, but it's nothing personal against BlaM and I
don't mean to sound like a broken record. It's just that he's
confirmed townie by both detectives. By getting rid of him, we give
town no additional information. He's the only one this applies to.
Also town so far has had 20 points in JSexton's formula (4 (Detective)
+ 3 (Doc) + 2 (1-shot Vig) + 11 (Vanilla)). With our 4 scum goons,
that equals 18. So town already had more power than us. I can't see
any more town roles being out there. (Unless one of you has your own
win condition, in which case well played you son-of-a-bitch. :-) ) So
we don't need to try to find a town power role anymore. (BTW, how did
you guys figure out who the Doc was. Was it just because she seemed to
be playing under the radar?)

3) Investigate ThingFish as town. We need a townie on our side, and
he's going to be the easiest to sway, I think. He'll no doubt have no
issues siding with us against a Ryjae lynch, particularly when we
identify him has town. To that end, peekercpa you must throw out your
investigation first, which means you should post as soon as Day 4
begins. It gives us the chance to preempt Ryjae. If Ryjae investigates
ThingFish as well, you can nail him for simply copying your reading.
If Ryjae investigates one of the scum, you can try to pin him as a
scum trying to buy townie cred. If he investigates someone else as
town, I'm sure we can come up with some way to turn it around to him
being scummy.

4) You three stay together in your voting tomorrow. Out of all of us,
I'm the one who's acted the scummiest. Most of that has been because I
haven't had a lot of time to truly analyze everything like I did in
Batman. (And though I know it's not really my fault for that, I hate
doing anything half-assed, and I feel like I haven't contributed as
much as I should have. I probably won't be in another mafia game for a
while until things settle down a bit. I had a lot of fun in Batman,
and I've had less fun in this one, not because I'm not enjoying being
scum or do not see how much ass we kicked, but because I've been too
busy to truly enjoy it. But enough emo, time to get back to strategy.)
I will float around and see what I can do to distract town. I have no
problems appearing scummy at this point. Hopefully, I can trick town
into following you guys. But if all else fails, I can always toss my
vote on your bandwagon near the last minute and still force a tie for
the win. A win's a win after all.

I must say, in spite of my annoyance at myself, it has been an honor
to be part of this team. I think for a bunch on newbie scum who had a
grand total of 4 games experience between them we've done
phenomenally! Even if we actually lose this on the slight chance of it
happening, I think we can be proud of our efforts.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

Nice post, Hoopy. I think there is wisdom to killing BlaM. I had forgotten for a moment that he was pretty much a confirmed Townie, and that would definitely be the best person to get rid of. I believe I snorted a bit when I read his minor snuggle on me, especially after the trouble I had with the whole snuggling fracas in Simpletown. ('S okay, BlaM. I'm sneaky.)

I think it really helps that the oredigger lynch was so popular. It's hard for the townies to cast stones at us for voting the same as many of them did. Hell, I would be suspicious of him if I were Town. I really did have a good case!

A thought: me, peeker, and CC vote ryjae. Hoopy votes whoever the other leading contender seems to be (likely peeker, but you never know). Don't just *think* you may switch in with us at the end, PLAN on it. If we can get one Townie to agree, we'll be golden. But you're right, I'd like to see the Town hoist their Detective high, for the scum win.

No matter what happens, we've done pretty well for ourselves here, and this helps me know what to watch for scum to be doing over in Apocalypse Mafia. Motivation and effective trickery are best learned here on the Dark Side

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-----Original Message-----

From: Hoopy Frood <hoopyf...@gmail.com>

Date: Thu, 29 May 2008 22:33:54

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day Three Discussion

[cckerberos]

I can go along with that.

All I think we have to do is argue that:
a) it's now 4-4, LYLO time (btw, HF's math is off, I think. It's Town
17, Scum 18 by my counting)
b) therefore Town can't take any chances and needs to lynch the most
suspicious person (i.e., RyJae)

I think the case against him is pretty solid. There's his switch on
Day 1, his suspicous vote for OD on Day 2, and his aggressiveness on
Day 3.

BTW, did anyone else take a look at the voting record for the first
two Days? I thought it was funny that I was considered suspicous for
participating in two Townie lynchings when not a single Townie other
than fluiddruid had voted for scum (and the reasons behind her peeker
vote were pretty weak).

[CoG888]

peekercpa is having trouble getting in to the forum. I don't know
why, since he posted in this thread already, I'm trying to figure it
out...

[Hoopy Frood]

Ack! You're right (sort of). I forgot to subtract us from the vanilla
count. There should be 7 vanilla townies, not 11. Which means town
actually has 16 points (not 17), so it is possible there is another
power role out there. (Since there'd be 2 points missing, that would
require a 3 point role instead of a vanilla, but I doubt highly they'd
have another doctor. And we know there are no masons, so I can't
figure out what they would have.)

[Hoopy Frood]

Yeah I had a moment of pause when I read it as well. I was watching
the whole Simpletown game (unspoiled for that one) and remember
"Snugglegate" well, and that though Roosh was the driving force, BlaM
was active in it, too. And then he turns around and is guilty of doing
what he criticized you for.

Although, I must say Roosh's opinion's of snuggling are spot on, even
if I think he was exaggerating the level to which you had done it. (I
hadn't really noticed any blatant example of you doing it, but I
wasn't looking for it either. Heck, if not for Simpletown, I probably
wouldn't have even noticed BlaM doing it here.)

[bethan...@gmail.com]

Yeah, I had done it like, once on Day Two. And it turns out I was spot-on with my snuggle too. I also completely agree with RoOsh's treatise on snuggling. All I ever disagreed with was that I was a rampant snuggler. Ha, I can't believe I'm still defending myself from that game! ;) Where's a CIA coverup when you need one?

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-----Original Message-----
From: Hoopy Frood <hoopyf...@gmail.com>

Date: Fri, 30 May 2008 07:41:08

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day Three Discussion

[cckerberos]

You're forgetting +1 for Town for a day start.

[golf]

ok having some internet issues so don't know how this will pan out

Whack Blam - who do i confirm?

i only made the claim cause i wanted to have some fun and it seemed
opportune. crud i left those cheesy detective bread crumbs along the
way. needed to use them at some point.

On May 29, 5:07 pm, CoG888 <cog...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Forum open for business....

[golf]

agreed

> > head.  If it looks like I am losing bus and run like heck.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

[golf]

thing fish at crack of dawn it will be then my teammates. and i've
gotta say if we
pull this off freaking home run.

pk

[bethan...@gmail.com]

If we're all good on the BlaM lynch, I'll send the word.

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-----Original Message-----
From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Fri, 30 May 2008 09:50:09

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day Three Discussion

[Hoopy Frood]

I think we're pretty good to go with the BlaM kill. And I think we're
also good to go with tomorrow's strategy. You guys need to ride Ryjae
hard and stick together, I'll wing it on what I do. I'm going out
Saturday night, so I won't be around until sometime Sunday anyway.

I'll check in at some point tomorrow (i.e. Saturday) before the Day
starts to see if there are any new developments, but I think we can
message the mod now for targeting BlaM.

[Kurtz, Philip]

O think that is fine. Just play tomorrow by ear and if we have to gang pile someone the we do so, right? And I confirm tf first thing, also right?

It has been am honor playing with you. Freaking all stars. Who would have thunk it

Peeker.

[golf]

and the all star comment was directed at me - not you all

[golf]

and i gotta make one last observation. i started off wanting to whack
tf and now i get to confirm him first thing. genuine hilarity ensues.

[bethan...@gmail.com]

You're right, that's funny as hell!

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-----Original Message-----
From: golf <Philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Fri, 30 May 2008 13:36:20

To:DopervilleMafia <dopervi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Day Three Discussion

and i gotta make one last observation. i started off wanting to whack

[Kurtz, Philip]

I'll come out firing tomorrow and voting RJ. If I were you guys I'd stand out of the way or be very non committal for the first 30 or so hours. If it looks like fd, dot or tf take the bait then we hammer. If not bus my butt for some cred the following day. Knowing that if rj gets another scum read and I die then I would suggest we go coin flip the rest of the way. Matter of fact coin flip makes the most sense at this point - I just want the no hitter for this team in the books.

Peeker

-----Original Message-----
From: dopervi...@googlegroups.com
To: dopervi...@googlegroups.com

[cckerberos]

Throwing you under the bus for town cred if it goes badly tomorrow
doesn't make any sense. We don't need cred anymore. We should start
flipping the coin tomorrow if things go badly.

On May 31, 6:54 am, "Kurtz, Philip" <philip.ku...@christushealth.org>
wrote:

[Kurtz, Philip]

This one brought a tear to my eye, almost.

Agreed.

[Kurtz, Philip]

Buffy. I aasume that you will follow protocol and let us lnow when the deed is done.

Yippee O Kayee M F s.

Pk

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I did. My confirmation is around here somewhere.

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-----Original Message-----

From: "Kurtz, Philip" <philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Sat, 31 May 2008 08:45:38
To:<dopervi...@googlegroups.com>

[Hoopy Frood]

Hey, just chiming in once more before the Night ends.

Yeah, there's no reason to bus anybody. We don't need the townie cred
anymore. If all else fails, we all vote for Ryjae, simple as that. You
three should be able to get at least one townie on your side. I will
flip my vote to him near the last minute, to prevent a coin toss. Even
if it does come down to a coin toss, and we happen to lose, each night
we just discuss who we vote for. As long as we stick together, this
game should be ours.

See you guys on the other side. I should get a post in sometime on
Sunday.

[Kurtz, Philip]

And I'll chime in one last time as well. Don't any of you guys commit whole heartedly for at least a day or two. Let's if we can get a townie(s) on rj. And if blam shows up alive, which I doubt we must stay the course.

Pk

-----Original Message-----
From: dopervi...@googlegroups.com
To: DopervilleMafia
Sent: Sat May 31 14:11:21 2008
Subject: Re: Day Three Discussion

[bethan...@gmail.com]

That's my thoughts exactly. Wishy washy worried townie is the name of the game

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-----Original Message-----
From: "Kurtz, Philip" <philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Sat, 31 May 2008 14:18:16
To:<dopervi...@googlegroups.com>

[Kurtz, Philip]

Wonder what seems to taking so long.

[cckerberos]

In the message announcing then end of the Day, CoG888 said that
toNight's "Deadline is Tentative... sometime Saturday or Sunday."

On Jun 1, 7:02 pm, "Kurtz, Philip" <philip.ku...@christushealth.org>
wrote:

[Kurtz, Philip]

Understood. I guess that means Sunday.

I may end up going to the lake today so may not be able to be first out of the box. If so, I'll non chalant it along the lines of "thought I was going to be dead, yada yada yada".

If rj confirms fish then I'll probably go dot. I assume since the day has not started it's still ok to talk.

Any thoughts?

[bethan...@gmail.com]

I would say go for TF even if ryjae does first. He seems like the best candidate for an investigation. But maybe not. Use your judgement

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-----Original Message-----

From: "Kurtz, Philip" <philip...@christushealth.org>

Date: Sun, 1 Jun 2008 09:52:11

[CoG888]

Sorry for the delay guys... I had some things to take care of before I
could get the day started.