Dumazile Novel Pdf Download

[Azalee Freas]

Thegolfing eco-estate on the KwaZulu-Natal coast seems idyllic, with its diplomatic-level security, smarmy country club, and resort-style pools and restaurants. But beneath the luxurious and well-manicured surface, corruption, lechery, evil, and debauchery seethe. It is in this rotten stew that a series of seemingly random and coincidental events leads to the murder of one of the estate's most respected residents: advocate Norman Ware. As Detective De Villiers sifts through the witnesses and suspects--a philandering plastic surgeon, a harvester of body parts, a property tycoon, a serial killer with a penchant for teenage girls, a recluse with ophidiophobia, and a cross-dressing homophobe--the pillars of lies and deceit upon which the exclusive estate residents' lives have been built start collapsing. Clever and macabre, this South African novel plays with the ideas of fate and of action and consequence.

Today, resilience in the face of cyclone risks has become a crucial issue for our societies. With climate change, the risk of strong cyclones occurring is expected to intensify significantly and to impact the way of life in many countries. To meet some of the associated challenges, the interdisciplinary ReNovRisk programme aims to study tropical cyclones and their impacts on the South-West Indian Ocean basin. This article is a presentation of the ReNovRisk programme, which is divided into four areas: study of cyclonic hazards, study of erosion and solid transport processes, study of water transfer and swell impacts on the coast, and studies of socio-economic impacts. The first transdisciplinary results of the programme are presented together with the database, which will be open access from mid-2021.

Two essential elements make the SWIO particularly sensitive to cyclonic risks. The first is large number of developing countries with fragile infrastructures and food and water supply systems, where a significant proportion of the population is living in extreme poverty. The second is due to the topography of some regions in the basin. Several islands of volcanic origin have steep slopes that locally reinforce convection, wind channelling effects and precipitation. Reunion Island, for instance, lays claim to several world records for cumulative rainfall: 1.1 m and 1.8 m over 12 h and 24 h, respectively, for TC Denise in 1966 (Holland 1993), and 3.9 m and 4.9 m over 72 h and 96 h, respectively, for TC Gamde in 2007 (Quetelard et al. 2007). Its orography has been shown to significantly influence the track and intensity of TCs passing nearby (Barbary et al. 2019). Terry et al (2013) also showed that in January and February a large proportion of storms in the SWIO had curving and sinuously moving trajectories. This track sinuosity is found to increase the storm longevity and the difficulties in forecasting, which reinforce the exposure of the territories.

Such intense precipitation generates landslides, ground movements and flash floods. In general, following the passage of a cyclone, several hundreds of landslides can impact the infrastructures (more than 200 landslides, rock falls or erosion phenomena were counted during TC Berguitta (2018) in Reunion Island (Aunay et al. 2018)). Sudden slope collapses and accelerations of slow-moving landslides are driven by the duration and intensity of precipitation (e.g. Caine 1980; Iverson 2000). Beyond the number of landslides, the moving masses involved can be considerable: two landslides of over 350 Mm3 each, in the Salazie area of Reunion Island, move up to 1 m per year and more than 1,000 people live directly on their surfaces (Belle et al. 2014).

Coordinated by the Universit de La Reunion, BRGM and IRD (French Research Institute for Development), ReNovRisk brings together a large consortium of research laboratories and scientific institutes from several countries in the western Indian Ocean, including France, Madagascar, the Seychelles, Mozambique, and Mauritius. Drawing on this wide pool of resources and expertise, the objectives of the ReNovRisk programme are multiple: (i) to improve observations and numerical forecasting systems for tropical cyclones in the SWIO, (ii) to study the cyclonic risks associated with winds, rainfall, ground movements, floods, submersion and swell over several target regions, and (iii) to develop a methodology suited to the SWIO that can estimate the direct and indirect economic costs associated with cyclonic damage.

This article is intended to present an overview of the ReNovRisk programme by detailing the presentation and strategy of its sub-programmes (Sect. 2). Some preliminary results from the various sub-programmes are presented in Sect. 3, and the ReNovRisk open databases are described in Sect. 5.

Coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models also require extensive observations to constrain and thoroughly assess the performance of their atmospheric and oceanic components. Because TCs develop, evolve and propagate primarily over oceanic areas, which are generally poorly equipped with conventional observing systems, collecting observations in TC basins can be extremely difficult. Due to the small proportion of land masses and also to the difficulties of sustainably operating observation systems in this poor area, the SWIO is the least instrumented of the six TC basins. Although satellite imagery has now made it possible to track the trajectories and general evolution of TCs all around the world, additional measurements are still urgently needed to study the mechanisms governing the evolution and impacts of low-pressure tropical systems in this particularly active basin.

A climate component, aiming at assessing the consequences of climate change on the properties (trajectories, intensity and structure) and potential impacts of tropical cyclones at both local and basin scales.

The observation component of RNR-C aims to provide accurate observations of TCs and their environments by reinforcing regional- and local-scale observing capabilities in the SWIO. To achieve this objective, RNR-C was built around three approaches.

Regarding space-borne observations, a collaboration with ESA (European Space Agency) and IFREMER (Institut Franais de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la MER) has enabled a unique set of high-resolution (1 km) satellite images of sea surface wind and roughness to be collected from synthetic aperture radars (SAR) deployed onboard the Sentinel 1A/1B satellites of the European Earth Observation programme Copernicus. Throughout 2018 to 2020, SAR data have been acquired on demand (with 48 h notice) for about two-thirds of the TCs that developed in the basin over this period. (About one hundred images were collected, nearly half of which were acquired in the eye-wall regions of TCs and tropical storms.)

The third, an exploratory approach, is based on the deployment and evaluation of new and original methods of investigation to collect oceanic observations in the SWIO from biologging and seismic observations. A particularly original approach, based on biologging technology, has been explored to collect oceanic data from sea turtles equipped with autonomous environmental tags. A first experiment was carried out from January 2019 to September 2020 in the western part of the tropical Indian Ocean, with the aim of assessing the relevance of low-cost sea turtle borne observations for ocean monitoring and modelling (Bousquet et al. 2020c). Another original approach, based on previous work by Davy et al. (2014, 2016) and Barruol et al. (2016), was also further investigated to evaluate and quantify extreme swell events from microseismic noise measurements recorded by ground-based and underwater seismometers. The analysis of data collected in RNR-C (Rindraharisaona et al. 2020) has demonstrated that terrestrial seismic stations could also be a great alternative for sampling Austral swell events by behaving as ground-based wave gauges.

While it is generally accepted that global warming will have a significant impact on ocean surface temperatures, which is a factor favouring the development of TCs, no one really knows how the other ingredients involved in the formation of tropical low-pressure systems will evolve in the future. While disaster scenarios suggest an increase in intense events, some scenarios also suggest a "benevolent nature" that could counteract this pessimistic trend. In this respect, a key objective of RNR-C is to assess the consequences of climate change on the properties and potential impacts of tropical cyclones in the SWIO basin. The experimental strategy is based on two complementary approaches: (i) the use of high-resolution global and regional climate simulations to estimate the evolution of cyclonic activity at basin scale (changes in TC trajectory, intensity and structure; impact on water resources) and (ii) the use of high-resolution mesoscale coupled simulations to assess the potential impact of climate change on the structure and the impacts of TC in specific target areas such as Reunion Island.

The objective of the sub-programme RNR-E falls within this major issue regarding forecasting of and protection against torrential floods. Libault et al. (2010) point out that the characterization of erosion and sediment transport in Reunion Island rivers requires better knowledge of the hydrological-hydraulic and geomorphological processes that control the production and transfer of liquid and solid flows.

To meet this target, RNR-E involves the monitoring and data acquisition at various scales of two representative hydrological catchment areas on Reunion Island: Salazie cirque and Rivire des pluies (Fig. 2b). New instrumentation has been set up in the aim of analysing and quantifying the interactions between upstream and downstream in the following processes:

Formation of the sedimentary stock: this is linked to erosion phenomena in the upstream parts of the catchment areas and to gravity destabilization (in particular rampart collapses and landslides). GNSS, a network of geodetic markers, LiDAR and seismic surveys are being implemented on the six major large-scale landslides in the Salazie cirque and in the Rivire des Pluies watershed. We are also carrying out hydrological, hydrogeological and geochemical monitoring of groundwater and surface water at the level of these landslides. In addition, the structure from motion technique has been applied using historical aerial images, image correlation techniques and SAR interferometry to characterize landslide dynamics.

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