What's the Hive's thoughts on Ebola?

[Matthew Zeits]

I am not liking what's going on in Dallas.  Wonder if we could develop a genetic marker test for the people who are immune since the vaccine estimate is out to march now.

[Mike Horwath]

Hmm...from my reading, people with a certain mutation in the gene NPC1 are immune, and people with a certain version of HLA-B gene have some protection.  PCR-based tests already exist and it would be fairly easy to design your own version.  This would be a reasonable DIY project although you would need to tread carefully around the legality of giving "medical advice" if you wanted to test other people...

Ebola is very, very nasty but I think the chances of a major outbreak in the USA are slim.  Fortunately it is not transmissible by air and can be controlled by public health measures like quarantine.  The guy in Texas managed to slip through customs with undiagnosed ebola, partly by lying, but I'd be surprised if the number of cases like that reach double digits.

Mike

[Matthew Zeits]

I'm thinking along the lines of major issues.  I.e. ebola goes airborne.  In that case it might be possible to improve the "optics"--to quote our president--of diybio by providing assistance like ham radio operators do during disasters.  Filtering large amounts of people to find the marker then get it verified--like we did at the VA with TLC filtering for UDS analysis, we validated dirty urines with HPLC and/or GC/MS--by actual labs so we know those persons can help with patient care would help improve the load on critical personnel who were not immune.

[Mike Horwath]

If Ebola goes airborne we would definitely want more extreme containment measures.  Possible, but unlikely.  It's a big evolutionary step to become resistant to atmospheric O2, drying out, etc.   Ebola has been kicking around in animal populations for years (millennia?) without evolving this capability.

If this outbreak continues, most likely we will see better adaptation to the human host.  It may become more infectious, but it could also become less virulent.  A virus that depends on close contact, but kills quickly and dramatically, and scares away other potential hosts, has difficulty spreading.   Better to progress slower and shed more virus over time with less symptoms.   This already may be happening.  Compared to past outbreaks, fatality is lower (60% vs 90%) and actual bleeding-membranes hemorrhagic fever is lower (20% vs 40%). 

As an infection/immunology geek I thought this article was fascinating:  http://hedricklab.ucsd.edu/PDF/HEDRICKImmunity113.pdf

It would be wonderful for DIY-Bio labs to have a role similar to ham radio operators in disaster response... Perhaps we could help with resistance screening, but that opens a big blood-borne-pathogen can'o worms.  Lots of safety training and red tape to be overcome.  There is also a thread on the international DIYBio forum about potential for developing better hazard suits for the ebola responders.  Personally I think the greatest potential may simply be educating and combating misinformation.

One thing I didn't realize before...right now the only known full immunity is complete lack of NPC1, which is 1) rare and 2) means you have Nieman-Pick disease.  Perhaps less severe mutations also give resistance, but it's not confirmed.

[Mike Horwath]

On a related note, if you are curious to hear what the "ivory tower" of academia and professional healthcare thinks about Ebola, there is a panel discussion at Cincinnati Children's this Monday:

http://cctst.uc.edu/node/1267

Unfortunately for daytime-workers it is at 2:00PM.  I'm planning to go if someone wants help finding the room...

Mike